ATL: EX Tropical Depression FIVE - Models

[Steve]

Stormcenter, has a hurricane ever come out of that track that you know of? I don't recall any. Maybe Alicia (83) might have kind of done it but I don't think it was anything until further west in the Gulf. I can't remember what the origin was either.

[Dean4Storms]

TVCN into Mississippi???

[Stormcenter]

No I don't recall any hurricane ever coming out of a track like that.

Stormcenter, has a hurricane ever come out of that track that you know of? I don't recall any. Maybe Alicia (83) might have kind of done it but I don't think it was anything until further west in the Gulf. I can't remember what the origin was either.

[Javlin]

I think Erin had a similiar track but made a right had turn into Pensacola as a decent storm?But Erin was something if I remember right before she trekked across FL.

Erin came up from the SE side of FL and across.

[Ptarmigan]

GFDL for 94L 103 KNOTS


HOUR:108.0 LONG: -93.27 LAT: 28.77 MIN PRESS (hPa): 950.64 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):100.28
HOUR:114.0 LONG: -94.06 LAT: 29.02 MIN PRESS (hPa): 948.88 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):101.18
HOUR:120.0 LONG: -95.01 LAT: 29.15 MIN PRESS (hPa): 949.33 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):103.89
HOUR:126.0 LONG: -96.16 LAT: 29.31 MIN PRESS (hPa): 961.85 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 60.51

That's really bullish for 94L. In fact that image reminds me of Ike when it came barreling in.

[Ptarmigan]

Stormcenter, has a hurricane ever come out of that track that you know of? I don't recall any. Maybe Alicia (83) might have kind of done it but I don't think it was anything until further west in the Gulf. I can't remember what the origin was either.

Hurricane Alicia formed from a cluster of thunderstorms after a cool front passed. It was south of Louisiana.

[MiamiHurricanes10]

Ptarmigan,
Yeah is pretty bullish, but is possible. Think about it, the GFDL keeps it over water longer than most models. Plus, that water is like bath water, some spots with SSTs near 32C. If you match that up with favorable conditions you are bound to get some rapid intensification. Not saying that the 18z GFDL will verify, but is a possibility.

[Steve]

NAM is rolling in (out to 48 hours):

500mb
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Radar Simulation
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[wxman57]

If you'll note on the GFDL intensity that it has it already as a 36kt TS at 00Z this evening. It's clearly way off on the intensity forecast because it thinks it's a TS now.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

NAM 72 Hours...Moving W/NW

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 8_072l.gif

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Nam 78 hours

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_078l.gif

[TwisterFanatic]

Looks like the NAM wants it to hang out south of Louisiana.

[StormClouds63]

Let's not throw out names like "Ike" when discussing this invest ... after all, it currently is just an invest without a LLC.

I trust the professional mets on the board to keep this system and its possible effects in proper perspective.

[Steve]

Looks like NAM shows a tightening trend. Hmmm.

[cycloneye]

00z Nam 84 hours

[Steve]

84 - radar simulation
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Weatherfreak000]

NAM would be a nasty scenario for us over here. Erin is definitely an interesting analog for this situation. IKE that's funny.


In all seriousness though, you guys can't seriously see this going across Florida and moving due west through the entire GOM? That would be pretty rare, the model consensus doesn't see it.

Morgan City to Penscacola looking good right now.

[Steve]

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i00.gif

QPF Shows 4+ inches in South Florida and almost 4 in coastal sections of FL, AL, MS and LA. Those look to be under-done a bit if NAM's idea is accurate.

[Steve]

Early Cycle (Operational) Track & Intensity stays mostly north of 28N.

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early2.png
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early2.png

[Ikester]

Any reason why I can't view them? Am very intrigued to see...