ATL: EX-Tropical Depression FIVE - Discussion

[amawea]

I think hurricane Alicia started off this way. It was a low that drifted into the north central gulf and really got it's act together fast/ I lived in Baytown then and my relatives still do. This is definitely a bear watch.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[MiamiHurricanes10]

18:45 UTC Aqua/Modis satellite image of 94L.

[Comanche]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-wv.html

The above loop makes me say "next".

I am in no way discounting the tropics this year as things can change in a heartbeat. However, it seems that the upper environment has been harsh thusfar in a year that has incredible potential from heat content and the La Nina pattern. I for one will openly wishcast that all of you storm nuts have a horrible year watching a whole lot of potential not pan out, the US cannot afford to have another major incident at this juncture, economically speaking, there are enough fires to put out as it is. 94L can go the way of the Dodo, and all CV's can go deep sea fishing!!!

[HURAKAN]

track

[Recurve]

So THAT'S what all that weather was about today. Holy cow there was a lot of rain and thunder in the Upper Keys and South Florida, especially this morning.

Like the rain. Don't think this has much chance at development until much later.

[HURAKAN]

HPC

[HeeBGBz]

The storms we had today in south MS were pretty intense. Heavy rain, lots of lightning. At least one piece of air traffic had to land in New Orleans instead of GPT.

The gulf looks like it could form something without the help of what is supposed to come across Florida. There appears to be a meatball to the south.

[Sambucol]

I think hurricane Alicia started off this way. It was a low that drifted into the north central gulf and really got it's act together fast/ I lived in Baytown then and my relatives still do. This is definitely a bear watch.

Alicia developed Aug 15 off the Louisiana coast and came ashore Aug 18. I lived in Baytown then, too, and I remember being in a hurry trying to get things ready.

[Sihara]

So THAT'S what all that weather was about today. Holy cow there was a lot of rain and thunder in the Upper Keys and South Florida, especially this morning.

Like the rain. Don't think this has much chance at development until much later.

Yeah - it was soggy as anything up here as well, a total washout of a weekend, considering all the yard chores that couldn't get finished. Least I got the stupid lawn mowed (barely). So is it tied in with 94L?

Comanche wrote:

I for one will openly wishcast that all of you storm nuts have a horrible year watching a whole lot of potential not pan out, the US cannot afford to have another major incident at this juncture, economically speaking, there are enough fires to put out as it is. 94L can go the way of the Dodo, and all CV's can go deep sea fishing!!!

Gotta admit, I have to agree with this! If there's anything this sad-sack state can't take, it's a blow from a major cane. on top of everything else.

[ROCK]

Just got into SOFLO tonight.....we had to fly around some nasty stuff over the GOM.....little bumpy for my taste.....I suspect the flight out will not be that great either....

Saw some very high cloud tops. We were flying around 40K feet, quite the light show.

[supercane]

06Z best track update from ATCF nearly stationary:

AL, 94, 2010080906, , BEST, 0, 297N, 796W, 20, 1012, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 100, 75, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 94, 2010080900, , BEST, 0, 297N, 795W, 25, 1011, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 150, 75, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

[BrianD]

OH..... This popped up rather unexpectedly Heading to the gulf I presume. Few things around the east coast this year an interesting llc earlier about a week ago off southeast NCas well is this in any way connected to that?

[supercane]

Not impressive tonight with very little convection and northerly shear continuing per UW-CIMSS analysis with sat, obs, shear overlay.

[supercane]

TWO steady at 10%.

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON AUG 9 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION COLIN <snip>
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

2. A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS <snip>

3. A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 110 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAINT AUGUSTINE FLORIDA IS INTERACTING WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW SITUATED NEAR THE BAHAMAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DISORGANIZED...AND STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
AND PROXIMITY TO LAND ARE EXPECTED TO INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST OR
WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...THOUGH CONDITIONS COULD BECOME A
LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT TIME WHEN THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
NNNN


000
AXNT20 KNHC 090557
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON AUG 09 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

<snip>

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ALONG THE EASTERN U.S.
SEABOARD AND SUPPORTS A 1012 MB LOW CENTERED OVER CAPE CANAVERAL
FLORIDA NEAR 29N80W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM THE
LOW ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF TO NEAR MOBILE
ALABAMA. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE AN
AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE NE GULF N OF 25N E
OF 90W. THIS ACTIVITY EXTENDS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND FLORIDA STRAITS BETWEEN 80W-84W. THE
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT SW ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTERED OVER EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 21N97W. THIS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS SUPPORTING WEAK SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM WESTERN
CUBA TO THE EASTERN TEXAS GULF COAST NEAR GALVESTON BAY. MOSTLY
E TO SE WINDS UP TO 15 KT RESIDE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS OVER
MUCH OF THE SW AND NW GULF TONIGHT.

<snip>

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ALONG THE EASTERN U.S.
SEABOARD TO 32N77W THEN CONTINUES SE TO A WEAK AND ELONGATED
UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 26N73W. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING SUPPORTS
A 1012 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA. A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDS FROM OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST NEAR 34N75W INTO
THE LOW WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE FRONT. SOUTH OF THE LOW OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA...
THE BAHAMAS...AND CUBA...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
ARE OCCURRING FROM 19N-27N BETWEEN 73W-82W. FARTHER EAST...THE
REMNANTS OF COLIN ARE ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM 35N65W TO 30N67W. THIS SURFACE TROUGH IS QUICKLY BECOMING
EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 37N50W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING NEAR THE
TROUGH FROM 26N-33N BETWEEN 64W-70W. ASIDE FROM THE SPECIAL
FEATURES LOW LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...MOSTLY STABLE
CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH AN EASTERN ATLC SURFACE RIDGE
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER E OF 40W. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NORTH OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 33N27W THAT EXTENDS TROUGHING TO 19N OVER
THE EASTERN ATLC WATERS.

<snip>

[MGC]

As long as 94L is positioned under that ULL its chances of development are low even in the GOM.......MGC

[KWT]

Oh without a doubt MGC, I'm not expecting anything too quick to form, its going to take some time in the Gulf to get going, but these things do tend to pop if given enough time.

[Nimbus]

You can see the outline of a circulation centered just off the Cape drifting inland WSW in the radar loop. There is lots of dry air to the north plus its getting pounded by shear from that ULL over the Bahamas. Most of the models don't have it moving very much further south. I'm not sure why some of the models abruptly steer 94L north into the panhandle as soon as it gets back out over the gulf. If it is embedded in the eastern edge of a ridge you would think a west or even WSW motion would continue for a day or two.

[ColinDelia]

Which way is the ULL over the Northern Bahamas supposed to go?

[cycloneye]

Up to 20% at 8 AM EDT TWO

A BROAD SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA IS PRODUCING A LARGE
AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TO
THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...THOUGH CONDITIONS COULD
BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT TIME.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE