ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

[artist]

what's that coming off the coast there? They just keep coming!

[cycloneye]

what's that coming off the coast there? They just keep coming!

Is peaktime now.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[ColinDelia]

Any thoughts on changes to 10% at 8pm?

[KWT]

One thing it has got going for it is some decent inflow from the ITCZ region which is probably what is helping it to thus far stave off the dry air to the north of it.

[Evil Jeremy]

Any thoughts on changes to 10% at 8pm?

Up to 30%.

[blazess556]

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 525 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY. SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...
OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

[TheBurn]

[ColinDelia]

20% seems reasonable.

[cycloneye]

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 525 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY. SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...
OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

Some stronger language as the "Development if any will be slow to occur" is gone.

[ColinDelia]

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 525 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY. SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...
OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

Some stronger language as the "Development if any will be slow to occur" is gone.

Yeah maybe taking it up a notch now ... to slow instead of slower

[abajan]

20% seems reasonable.

I figured the percentage would increase - just not that quickly. It certainly looks better organized this evening. Oh boy... sleepless nights ahead.

[BigA]

Bit off topic, but I like this percentage system-very objective. I remember analyzing TWOs back in the day (before this year) trying to parse words figuring out whether the NHC was more bullish or bearish. But now, presto, 10% to 20%. Easy to tell what they are thinking.

[hurricaneCW]

This one should definitely be slow to organize but then again it could quickly ramp up. I mean it took several days for 97L to become Fiona and yet Earl rapidly organized right off the African coast and quickly became a TD not to far west of the Cape Verde islands.

[srainhoutx]

Looks like our first potential for a CC this season. Low latitude and slow development with model support. I'll be watching.

[SouthFloridawx]

Looks like our first potential for a CC this season. Low latitude and slow development with model support. I'll be watching.

The heat content in the Caribbean very high...

[Ixolib]

................................................................How come 98L isn't on the S2K map??

[abajan]

http://www.storm2k.org/weather//images/tropical/plotsystemforecast_nt_pz_pa_2010_active_invests_fulltropics_merc_640x280_640_480.jpg

................................................................How come 98L isn't on the S2K map??

I asked a similar question about why Earl wasn’t being depicted as a hurricane when it had been one for some hours. I guess there’s a lot involved in updating the graphics, I don’t know.

[cycloneye]

................................................................How come 98L isn't on the S2K map??

That graphic works in an automated way,but I dont know why 98L is not showing.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 98, 2010090100, , BEST, 0, 122N, 321W, 25, 1008, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest