ATL: KARL - Models

[CrazyC83]

If those model ensembles are right, Julia will likely be an EXTREMELY intense hurricane.

[Sambucol]

Saw that. We were just discussing the N/NE drift at the end. Heights do start lowering out west during that time frame.

What would a NNE drift do to the track if it did that?

[jasons2k]

Looks like to me there is lower than usual confidence with where this one might go. Timing will become more and more of a factor as we head into fall and the pattern becomes more progressive. I days' difference by day 7 could mean the difference between missing a trough or not, etc...

[barometerJane61]

If those model ensembles are right, Julia will likely be an EXTREMELY intense hurricane.

We may escape Igor,but future Julia will be a b**** if she slips into the GOM

[Ivanhater]

UKMET is in the Canadian camp moving over Hati into a shortwave weakness

[SouthFLTropics]

With the pattern of troughs that has been camped out along the Atlantic Seaboard this year I have been thinking that our greatest threat would come later on towards the middle to the end of this month and into October.

Could this be the year that Tampa Bay's luck runs out??? The pattern seems to favor TB as a target as we head into Fall...

SFT

[gatorcane]

Seems like there is a camp of models that have it hitting the large Weakness in the Western Atlantic, pushing it NW maybe with it emerging north of the Greater Antilles, SE Bahamas.

[cycloneye]

Here is a good look at the spread on the tracks.

[SouthFLTropics]

Seems like there is a camp of models that have it hitting the large Weakness in the Western Atlantic, pushing it NW maybe with it emerging north of the Greater Antilles, SE Bahamas.

It seems like there are two camps...One takes it towards the big islands and then the Bahamas and then the other camp moves towards Mexico...It will be interesting to see which ones verify. I used to be steadfast behind the Euro but it let me down on the Fiona fiasco so I have somewhat removed my support for it.

Until we get a true center none of the models are going to be extremely accurate but they can get a general idea of the pattern in place...

SFT

[Bailey1777]

michael the models that have this moving northward towards the weakness are they trying to take this out into the atlantic or do they bend back west after awhile?

[Ivanhater]

michael the models that have this moving northward towards the weakness are they trying to take this out into the atlantic or do they bend back west after awhile?

The weakness induced by the trough doesn't look strong enough to fully pick this up..just enough to tug it up before the ridge builds back on top.

[caneseddy]

18Z GFS out to 48 hours

36 hours: Has 92L just west of Barbados
42 hours: 92L is in the Caribbean with Igor marching due west
48 hours: Has 92L NE of Barbados with Igor moving WNW now and a new low coming off Africa at around 12 degrees

[Ivanhater]

GFS through 54 hours is less then impressed

[Ivanhater]

18z GFS has no development through 96 hours

[hurricaneCW]

The gfs is starting to look like it did when we were anticipating Gaston to redevelop. Either there's too much shear, low instability, dry air, or many other factors but the environment is not as favorable as the NHC is leading you to believe.

[SouthFLTropics]

The gfs is starting to look like it did when we were anticipating Gaston to redevelop. Either there's too much shear, low instability, dry air, or many other factors but the environment is not as favorable as the NHC is leading you to believe.

I would tend to agree with you. All we need to do is look at water vapor in the area and you can see all of the dry air. If that isn't enough evidence look at what we just went through with gas gone Gaston. That was like lighting a long firecracker fuse and watching it burn all the way down and then nothing...

SFT

[hurricaneCW]

Clearly the central and eastern atlantic are far more favorable than the Gulf or Caribbean right now. I still think the Caribbean system will develop but it could be a very slow process. If it does move far to the NW, NNW to near Puerto Rico, we could even see an interaction with Igor although they are likely to be very far apart from each other.

[TwisterFanatic]

Its 18z GFS... don't look much into it. It will probably have Igor hitting something.

[Bailey1777]

so after one run of one model not showing much it's time to bury it? the things talked about as negatives are things that have been there so why would models lock on and the nhc buy into it if things are really that stacked against it?

[Ivanhater]

18z Nogaps doesn't do much with it either.