ATL: KARL - Models
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- jasons2k
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Re: ATL : 92L - Models
Looks like to me there is lower than usual confidence with where this one might go. Timing will become more and more of a factor as we head into fall and the pattern becomes more progressive. I days' difference by day 7 could mean the difference between missing a trough or not, etc...
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- barometerJane61
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Re:
CrazyC83 wrote:If those model ensembles are right, Julia will likely be an EXTREMELY intense hurricane.
We may escape Igor,but future Julia will be a b**** if she slips into the GOM
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- Ivanhater
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Re: ATL : 92L - Models
UKMET is in the Canadian camp moving over Hati into a shortwave weakness
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Michael
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Re: ATL : 92L - Models
With the pattern of troughs that has been camped out along the Atlantic Seaboard this year I have been thinking that our greatest threat would come later on towards the middle to the end of this month and into October.
Could this be the year that Tampa Bay's luck runs out??? The pattern seems to favor TB as a target as we head into Fall...
SFT
Could this be the year that Tampa Bay's luck runs out??? The pattern seems to favor TB as a target as we head into Fall...
SFT
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL : 92L - Models
Here is a good look at the spread on the tracks.
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- SouthFLTropics
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Re:
gatorcane wrote:Seems like there is a camp of models that have it hitting the large Weakness in the Western Atlantic, pushing it NW maybe with it emerging north of the Greater Antilles, SE Bahamas.
It seems like there are two camps...One takes it towards the big islands and then the Bahamas and then the other camp moves towards Mexico...It will be interesting to see which ones verify. I used to be steadfast behind the Euro but it let me down on the Fiona fiasco so I have somewhat removed my support for it.
Until we get a true center none of the models are going to be extremely accurate but they can get a general idea of the pattern in place...
SFT
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Re: ATL : 92L - Models
michael the models that have this moving northward towards the weakness are they trying to take this out into the atlantic or do they bend back west after awhile?
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- Ivanhater
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Re: ATL : 92L - Models
Bailey1777 wrote:michael the models that have this moving northward towards the weakness are they trying to take this out into the atlantic or do they bend back west after awhile?
The weakness induced by the trough doesn't look strong enough to fully pick this up..just enough to tug it up before the ridge builds back on top.
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Michael
Re: ATL : 92L - Models
18Z GFS out to 48 hours
36 hours: Has 92L just west of Barbados
42 hours: 92L is in the Caribbean with Igor marching due west
48 hours: Has 92L NE of Barbados with Igor moving WNW now and a new low coming off Africa at around 12 degrees
36 hours: Has 92L just west of Barbados
42 hours: 92L is in the Caribbean with Igor marching due west
48 hours: Has 92L NE of Barbados with Igor moving WNW now and a new low coming off Africa at around 12 degrees
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Re: ATL : 92L - Models
The gfs is starting to look like it did when we were anticipating Gaston to redevelop. Either there's too much shear, low instability, dry air, or many other factors but the environment is not as favorable as the NHC is leading you to believe.
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- SouthFLTropics
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Re: ATL : 92L - Models
hurricaneCW wrote:The gfs is starting to look like it did when we were anticipating Gaston to redevelop. Either there's too much shear, low instability, dry air, or many other factors but the environment is not as favorable as the NHC is leading you to believe.
I would tend to agree with you. All we need to do is look at water vapor in the area and you can see all of the dry air. If that isn't enough evidence look at what we just went through with gas gone Gaston. That was like lighting a long firecracker fuse and watching it burn all the way down and then nothing...
SFT
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Re: ATL : 92L - Models
Clearly the central and eastern atlantic are far more favorable than the Gulf or Caribbean right now. I still think the Caribbean system will develop but it could be a very slow process. If it does move far to the NW, NNW to near Puerto Rico, we could even see an interaction with Igor although they are likely to be very far apart from each other.
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- TwisterFanatic
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Its 18z GFS... don't look much into it. It will probably have Igor hitting something.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: ATL : 92L - Models
so after one run of one model not showing much it's time to bury it? the things talked about as negatives are things that have been there so why would models lock on and the nhc buy into it if things are really that stacked against it?
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