WPAC: FANAPI - Tropical Depression (1011/12W/Inday)

[supercane]

WTPQ20 RJTD 162100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1011 FANAPI (1011)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 162100UTC 22.1N 128.3E FAIR
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 160NM EAST 130NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 172100UTC 23.4N 126.6E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
45HF 181800UTC 24.3N 123.4E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
69HF 191800UTC 24.6N 120.0E 160NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =



SUBJ: TYPHOON 12W (FANAPI) WARNING NR 009
WTPN31 PGTW 162100
1. TYPHOON 12W (FANAPI) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 22.1N 128.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.1N 128.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 22.6N 128.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 23.2N 126.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 23.5N 125.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 23.7N 123.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 23.9N 119.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 24.9N 116.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 26.6N 113.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 22.2N 128.2E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z, 170900Z, 171500Z AND 172100Z.
//
BT
#0001
NNNN




TXPN27 KNES 162117
SIMWIR
A. 12W (FANAPI)
B. 16/2032Z
C. 22.2N
D. 128.2E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T4.0/4.5/W0.5/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR/AMSU
H. REMARKS...CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION HAS DETERIORATED OVER LAST 6 HOURS
AND CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN EIR BUT BELIEVED TO BE EMBEDDED IN
MG FOR A DT OF 4.0. PT AGREES WHILE MET IS 3.5. FT BASED ON PT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
16/1704Z 22.1N 128.4E AMSU
...TURK
=

[supercane]

JMA Dvorak 4.5, JTWC still 4.0:
798
TCNA21 RJTD 170000
CCAA 17000 47644 FANAPI(1011) 14222 11284 13236 245// 93303=

TPPN10 PGTW 170011
A. TYPHOON 12W (FANAPI)
B. 16/2332Z
C. 22.4N
D. 128.3E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T4.0/4.0/D0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 15A/PBO TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING/ANMTN. LLCC EMBEDDED
IN MG YIELDS A DT OF 4.0. PT AND MET AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
16/2044Z 22.5N 128.2E SSMI
16/2120Z 22.3N 128.3E SSMS
16/2156Z 22.3N 128.3E AMSU
UEHARA

Earlier ASCAT:


And latest HDOB:

843

URPA15 PGUA 170007

AF307 0520W FANAPI HDOB 37 20100916
235700 2227N 12537E 9596 00405 0048 +240 +209 358031 032 024 004 00
235730 2225N 12536E 9593 00408 0048 +240 +211 353031 031 027 002 00
235800 2224N 12535E 9593 00408 0048 +240 +207 353034 035 027 002 00
235830 2223N 12534E 9594 00408 0049 +240 +200 351037 038 025 004 00
235900 2221N 12533E 9602 00400 0048 +243 +203 350036 036 026 005 00
235930 2220N 12533E 9595 00406 0048 +240 +203 350035 035 029 004 00
000000 2218N 12532E 9589 00412 0048 +240 +211 346034 034 029 003 00
000030 2217N 12532E 9596 00406 0049 +240 +219 344031 033 028 004 00
000100 2215N 12532E 9593 00409 0049 +240 +219 344031 031 028 004 00
000130 2214N 12531E 9596 00407 0049 +239 +222 344031 031 031 004 00
000200 2212N 12531E 9592 00410 0049 +235 +223 344030 031 030 002 00
000230 2211N 12530E 9594 00407 0049 +239 +222 342031 031 030 003 00
000300 2209N 12530E 9601 00387 0042 +239 +223 342029 030 030 002 00
000330 2208N 12530E 9565 00414 0042 +235 +226 344028 029 028 004 00
000400 2206N 12529E 9584 00419 0050 +238 +225 342030 030 025 004 00
000430 2205N 12529E 9596 00407 0050 +240 +227 340028 029 027 003 00
000500 2204N 12529E 9593 00410 0051 +240 +226 338028 028 027 003 00
000530 2202N 12528E 9595 00410 0051 +240 +228 338027 028 023 004 00
000600 2201N 12528E 9594 00409 0051 +239 +231 341026 029 026 001 00
000630 2200N 12526E 9584 00421 0052 +241 +223 338028 029 024 003 00
$$
;

[supercane]

WTPQ20 RJTD 170000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1011 FANAPI (1011)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170000UTC 22.2N 128.3E FAIR
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 170NM EAST 130NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 180000UTC 23.4N 126.1E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 190000UTC 24.4N 122.0E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 200000UTC 24.3N 117.8E 160NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[Chacor]

Will be interesting to see what recon finds and if JMA go with it.

[supercane]

Latest HDOB:

429

URPA15 PGUA 170057

AF307 0520W FANAPI HDOB 42 20100917
004700 2138N 12733E 6967 03083 9958 +104 +083 296052 053 040 004 00
004730 2139N 12735E 6970 03081 9958 +102 +081 295055 056 044 003 00
004800 2140N 12736E 6965 03083 9961 +098 +081 294054 055 044 004 00
004830 2141N 12737E 6967 03082 9959 +098 +081 295055 058 046 004 00
004900 2143N 12738E 6967 03075 9963 +091 +088 295059 059 046 004 00
004930 2144N 12740E 6967 03074 9963 +089 //// 297060 060 048 005 01
005000 2145N 12741E 6965 03070 //// +078 //// 297058 059 050 007 01
005030 2146N 12742E 6967 03066 //// +082 //// 297057 058 049 008 01
005100 2147N 12744E 6963 03069 //// +079 //// 296059 060 048 009 01
005130 2149N 12745E 6966 03058 //// +074 //// 293060 060 050 010 01
005200 2150N 12746E 6969 03051 //// +075 //// 296061 062 050 012 01
005230 2151N 12748E 6965 03055 //// +080 //// 300060 061 051 010 01
005300 2152N 12749E 6967 03047 //// +087 //// 302060 060 052 007 01
005330 2154N 12750E 6969 03044 9913 +099 //// 300061 061 052 005 01
005400 2155N 12751E 6967 03040 9907 +104 //// 298061 062 054 004 01
005430 2156N 12753E 6964 03037 9904 +098 //// 294062 064 055 006 01
005500 2157N 12754E 6975 03021 9900 +091 //// 295064 066 055 004 01
005530 2158N 12755E 6966 03024 9890 +103 +093 299066 066 056 002 00
005600 2200N 12757E 6965 03019 9882 +102 +095 298065 066 055 004 00
005630 2201N 12758E 6969 03010 9866 +112 +089 304066 067 056 001 00
$$
;

[supercane]

118
URPA15 PGUA 170107

AF307 0520W FANAPI HDOB 43 20100917
005700 2202N 12759E 6966 03003 9856 +111 +086 306071 073 056 002 00
005730 2203N 12801E 6966 02992 9847 +114 +086 308074 075 058 002 00
005800 2204N 12802E 6967 02987 9837 +113 +093 309076 077 059 003 00
005830 2206N 12803E 6967 02979 9818 +121 +090 310075 076 060 003 00
005900 2207N 12804E 6964 02975 9811 +120 +101 306069 075 061 006 00
005930 2208N 12805E 6969 02962 9789 +132 +110 294056 057 062 006 00
010000 2209N 12807E 6973 02947 9776 +134 +110 283060 064 062 004 00
010030 2210N 12808E 6962 02950 9777 +121 +121 278061 061 063 006 00
010100 2212N 12810E 6968 02933 9774 +109 //// 281063 070 064 007 01
010130 2213N 12811E 6979 02914 9762 +111 //// 282058 059 063 006 05
010200 2215N 12812E 6963 02926 9743 +124 //// 279047 055 062 003 05
010230 2216N 12813E 6973 02903 9722 +140 +116 285033 037 054 002 00
010300 2218N 12813E 6962 02911 9706 +153 +100 292026 028 050 001 00
010330 2219N 12814E 6969 02899 9699 +153 +102 301022 022 049 002 03
010400 2221N 12815E 6966 02899 9691 +156 +099 303022 023 046 000 03
010430 2222N 12816E 6970 02888 9684 +156 +099 292019 021 037 003 00
010500 2224N 12817E 6965 02897 9679 +160 +095 294013 016 035 002 03
010530 2225N 12817E 6966 02887 9670 +166 +091 296004 008 032 001 00
010600 2227N 12818E 6970 02883 9666 +169 +090 150003 005 030 003 00
010630 2228N 12818E 6970 02880 9669 +168 +090 142007 007 024 001 03
$$
;

VDM probably coming soon.

[supercane]

960

URPA15 PGUA 170118

AF307 0520W FANAPI HDOB 44 20100917
010700 2230N 12820E 6967 02882 9670 +165 +089 165008 008 029 001 00
010730 2230N 12820E 6967 02882 9666 +168 +088 157011 013 025 000 00
010800 2232N 12822E 6966 02884 9664 +170 +090 159017 018 025 002 00
010830 2233N 12823E 6970 02881 9659 +176 +087 157020 021 029 001 00
010900 2235N 12825E 6965 02891 9666 +174 +082 161020 021 035 002 00
010930 2236N 12826E 6974 02884 9673 +170 +088 133021 022 043 001 00
011000 2237N 12827E 6964 02897 9681 +164 +103 135030 037 054 002 00
011030 2238N 12829E 6962 02911 9696 +156 +119 141046 050 068 004 00
011100 2239N 12830E 6971 02904 9712 +131 //// 135055 061 072 007 01
011130 2240N 12831E 6970 02916 9737 +131 //// 132071 075 072 014 01
011200 2241N 12832E 6960 02939 //// +103 //// 135082 087 072 015 01
011230 2242N 12833E 6970 02937 9789 +108 //// 136079 080 072 010 01
011300 2243N 12835E 6964 02953 9795 +114 //// 132073 075 071 008 01
011330 2244N 12836E 6963 02966 9807 +110 //// 137076 078 071 008 01
011400 2245N 12837E 6969 02969 9822 +106 //// 140072 073 069 004 01
011430 2247N 12838E 6967 02982 //// +095 //// 143071 073 069 006 01
011500 2248N 12840E 6967 02990 //// +093 //// 142070 071 066 008 01
011530 2249N 12841E 6966 03000 //// +088 //// 146077 079 063 009 01
011600 2250N 12842E 6972 02999 //// +084 //// 146073 074 064 011 01
011630 2251N 12843E 6974 03006 //// +077 //// 136073 079 063 014 01
$$
;

[Infdidoll]

This thing turned West yet? Winds have increased about 10 mph in the last few hours here...It's making me nervous. lol

[supercane]

WTPQ50 RJTD 170000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1011 FANAPI (1011)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170000UTC 22.2N 128.3E FAIR
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 170NM EAST 130NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 180000UTC 23.4N 126.1E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 190000UTC 24.4N 122.0E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 200000UTC 24.3N 117.8E 160NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
96HF 210000UTC 25.4N 113.2E 280NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
120HF 220000UTC 26.4N 110.0E 375NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT =



530
URPA12 PGUA 170126

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 17/01:05:50Z
B. 22 deg 26 min N
128 deg 18 min E
C. 700 mb 2846 m
D. 63 kt
E. 208 deg 15 nm
F. 308 deg 77 kt
G. 216 deg 25 nm
H. 970 mb
I. 11 C / 3047 m
J. 17 C / 3047 m
K. 9 C / NA
L. closed
M. C32
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 0 nm
P. AF307 0520W FANAPI OB 14
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 86 KT NE QUAD 01:19:30Z
RAGGED INNER EYEWALL
;

[supercane]

WTPN31 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 12W (FANAPI) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 22.6N 128.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.6N 128.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 23.1N 127.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 23.6N 126.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 23.8N 124.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 23.9N 122.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 24.2N 118.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 25.7N 114.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 27.8N 112.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 22.7N 128.0E.
TYPHOON (TY) 12W (FANAPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
170000Z IS 19 FEET. AT 091700 TYPHOON CENTER LOCATED 397 NM ESE OF
TAIPEI. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z, 171500Z, 172100Z AND 180300Z.//

[StormingB81]

Infidoll, We are going ot get what ooks liek a pretty good feeder come through here in probably an hours time.

[supercane]

WDPN31 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 12W WARNING NR 10//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TYPHOON (TY) 12W (FANAPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER CHINA HAS
BUILT RAPIDLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY, CAUSING THE CYCLONE TO TURN MORE
NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION
BASED ON ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A HIGH-
RESOLUTION 162228Z MICROWAVE IMAGE. TY 12W HAS ALSO INTENSIFIED BY
20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS DUE TO IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW
INTO THE PASSING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE RECENT VISIBLE IMAGERY AND
AVAILABLE MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE WELL CONSOLIDATED CONVECTION AND
THE BEGINNING STAGES OF AN EYE. THEREFORE, THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF
75 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE STRONG CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE AND SUPPORTED
BY DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM KNES AND RJTD OF 4.5 AND PGTW OF 4.0.
CURRENTLY, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES SHOW THAT THE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW HAS STARTED TO WANE AS THE TROUGH HAS LIFTED TO THE
NORTHEAST AND THE SYSTEM IS PASSING OVER AN AREA OF LOWER OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE IN FORECAST PHILOSOPHY AND TRACK SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. AS THE MID-LATITUDE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH HAS PROPAGATED
NORTHEASTWARD OF JAPAN, THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE POSITIONED
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM IS BECOMING THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO TRACK INCREASINGLY WESTWARD AND TO
ACCELERATE UP TO 8-10 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT DAY. FANAPI SHOULD
INTENSIFY TO A PEAK NEAR 90 KNOTS AROUND TAU 24 DUE TO A POCKET OF
ROBUST OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY FURTHER DUE TO INCREASING NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE AND A LOSS OF POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT, EVEN
WBAR, WHICH NOW ALSO TRACKS THE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL TAIWAN.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TY 12W IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER
CROSSING TAIWAN BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU 72 BUT SHOULD MAINTAIN 55-60
KNOT INTENSITY AS IT CROSSES THE TAIWAN STRAIT. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER MAINLAND CHINA AFTER TAU 72 AND WILL
DISSIPATE BY TAU 120.//

[StormingB81]

It is getting really dark here..this looks like it may pack a little punch!

[supercane]

875
URPA12 PGUA 170312

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 17/02:48:30Z
B. 22 deg 38 min N
128 deg 17 min E
C. 700 mb 2832 m
D. 60 kt
E. 289 deg 17 nm
F. 033 deg 67 kt
G. 296 deg 26 nm
H. 968 mb
I. 11 C / 3055 m
J. 17 C / 3049 m
K. 8 C / NA
L. open 060-100
M. C32
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 4 nm
P. AF307 0520W FANAPI OB 27
MAX FL WIND 86 KT NE QUAD 01:12:10Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 81 KT SE QUAD 02:59:00Z
;

[brunota2003]

Wait...since when did the Air Force start doing Recon again in the WPac???

[supercane]

Recon is flying into typhoons as part of ITOP. "The Impacts of Typhoons on the Ocean in the Pacific (ITOP) program is a multi-national field campaign that aims to study the ocean response to typhoons in the western Pacific Ocean."

ITOP sites: http://catalog.eol.ucar.edu/itop_2010/
http://www.eol.ucar.edu/projects/itop/

Also Taiwan flies into storms in their vicinity as part of the DOTSTAR project.

If you need more links see the prior page.

[brunota2003]

I am glad that we finally got recon out there again, but they need to be very careful!

[Chacor]

Not the first time though, recon flew STY Jangmi two years ago and found 163 kt FL winds with stadium effect. So I'm sure they're well-prepared for anything.

[supercane]

WTPQ20 RJTD 170300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1011 FANAPI (1011)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170300UTC 22.5N 128.2E FAIR
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 170NM EAST 130NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 180300UTC 23.4N 125.2E 70NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
45HF 190000UTC 24.4N 122.0E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
69HF 200000UTC 24.3N 117.8E 160NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =




TXPN27 KNES 170312
SIMWIR
A. 12W (FANAPI)
B. 17/0232Z
C. 22.5N
D. 128.2E
E. TWO/MTSAT
F. T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMIS
H. REMARKS...FT BASED ON DT BUT ALL FACTORS AGREE. OW EYE SURROUNDED
BY LG AND EMBEDDED IN DG.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
16/2228Z 22.5N 128.1E SSMIS
...BALDWIN
=

[CrazyC83]

Recon supports an intensity around 75 kt.