ATL: NICOLE - Ex Tropical Storm - Discussion

[Vortex]

Exerpt from NWS Miami this afternoon:


GFS/NAM/ECMWF ALL CONTINUE TO SHOW THE HEAVIEST RAIN OCCURRING
ALONG THE SE FL COAST. INTERESTING TO SEE THAT THE GFS AND NAM
BOTH SHOW WHAT WOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT RAINBAND MOVING NORTHWARD
ALONG OUR SE COAST TUE NIGHT-WED AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO WATCH
THIS AS RAINFALL RATES COULD BE 2-4"/HR GIVEN THE WARM, EXTREMELY
MOIST ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE EXPECTED. A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK WAS
ISSUED FOR ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH FL EARLIER TODAY...TO HIGHLIGHT
THE HEAVY RAIN/FLOOD POTENTIAL. ALTHOUGH THE OUTLOOK COVERS ALL OF
SOUTH FL...INCLUDING THE GREATER NAPLES AREA...THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN DOES APPEAR TO BE ACROSS THE EAST COAST
METROPOLITAN AREAS TUE NIGHT-WED. THE LATEST HPC QPF RAINFALL FCST
REFLECTS THIS THINKING...SHOWING AREAL AVG RAIN AMOUNTS OF 2-3"
GULF COAST TO 4-6" ATLANTIC COAST. A WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE LOW
WOULD RESULT IN HEAVIER RAINS BEING POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE GULF
COAST. A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR ALL OR PARTS OF THE AREA
IN LATER FCST ISSUANCES...SO STAY TUNED.

THERE IS MODEL CONSENSUS THAT THE LOW WILL PULL NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA ON THURSDAY AS THE MID/UPPER TROUGH PICKS IT UP. MUCH DRIER
AIR LOOKS TO SWEEP INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW THU-FRI...WITH
GFS SHOWING PW`S FALLING TO <1.5".

THERE IS AN EXTREME DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THE FAR EXTENDED
FCST...DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND BEYOND. THE LATEST 12Z RUN
OF THE GFS SHOWS A TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPING IN THE NW CARIB
FRI...MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE STRAITS/FAR SE GULF SUN-EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS SOLUTION WOULD NOT BE GOOD. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF SHOWS
A STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN SEA
BOARD...KEEPING THE MORE PRONOUNCED TROUGHING AND WEAKER LOWS
FORMING WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH THE AREA
MOSTLY DRY - TWO COMPLETELY DIFFERENT SCENARIOS. IMPOSSIBLE TO
DETERMINE WHICH ONE LEANS MORE TOWARDS REALITY SO HAVE MADE NO
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. /GREGORIA

[SouthFloridawx]

Is this the area you guys are talking about? That's what I'm seeing...

[psyclone]

well i figured much of the west coast north of Ft Myers would be excluded from any meaningful weather or heavy rain from this disturbance but my assumption was predicated on a center forming much farther east. if this yucatan center does in fact become our genesis point, would this involve more of the peninsula in a heavy rain threat or will this thing just cede longitude at a faster pace on its trip northward and wind up impacting the same regions? i still suspect we're golden with respect to really heavy rain but perhaps more of the peninsula could get dumped on.

[wxman57]

57, is what the predict team has and the models inicated are the leftovers of Matthew emerging the Yucatan?

No, PGI146L is located over southern Mexico just south of the BoC. This is a separate feature. The 12Z GFS takes Matthew's remnants east into the NW Caribbean by this Friday and develops another storm out of it.

I guess not...Wxman57 how realistic is the GFS sceario in your opnion?

I'll believe it when I see it. But I do think we'll see several additional storms form in the Caribbean in the coming weeks.

[ColinDelia]

Unless i'm going crazy I got this image by clicking on PGI50L around 9:30 am ET.
http://linkification.com/wx/2010/carib4/gyre.jpg

Maybe we are all looking at different pages.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/predict/#
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/

[wxman57]

Unless i'm going crazy I got this image by clicking on PGI50L around 9:30 am ET.
http://linkification.com/wx/2010/carib4/gyre.jpg

Maybe we are all looking at different pages.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/predict/#
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/

I was looking here:
http://catalog.eol.ucar.edu/predict/

There was no invest this morning, so CIMSS had no "I" to click on.

[btangy]

The PREDICT team has never completely given up on the Remnants of Matthew being involved.
Is that the reason for the Yucatan initialization now?

The initialization is based on a consensus of model forecasts. They've been jumping around a lot, so the apparent initialization over the Yucatan and movement toward the E is a bit erroneous. It appears that an increasingly dominant circulation develops over the NW Caribbean that's part of a larger monsoon gyre while Matthew's circulation is a lobe on the W side of this gyre. It is a very complex scenario to say the least!

[Vortex]

18Z NAM at H60 hold low back..first time its indicated this scenario...


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_060l.gif

[Aric Dunn]

Latest satellite/sfc obs with new NHC initialization point (18.4N/88W). Obs do show a weak low there. If it did form farther west, then there's a better chance it would impact south Florida on Wednesday.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/nicole2.gif

well mine is not nearly as nice as your GARP Image.. lol but I wanted to add the cayman islands wind directions they indicate a possible weak low/vort in that vicinity. its clearly very broad Circ and where a LLC tightens up is the question.. your right though the farther west it develops the later an arrival in florida and a higher chance of strengthening although I dont see it getting stronger than 50 or 60mph right now..

The black arrows are all actually surface observations.. the circle near Cozumel is a likely candidate as well near Cayman. Its too early to say where exactly something will tighten up but if we get some good convection associated with either area than it would have a better chance.

sorry for the roughness of the image ..

[SouthFloridawx]

Eric, are you just trying to draw Stewie Griffin?

[Vortex]

maybe cayman low shoots n and cozumel low hangs back to be storm 2

[cycloneye]

18Z NAM at H60 hold low back..first time its indicated this scenario...


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_060l.gif

We now have a models thread,not like at Talking tropics where all was posted in one thread.

[alan1961]

Is this the area you guys are talking about? That's what I'm seeing...

http://img818.imageshack.us/img818/937/44724649.png

Yes thats what i see too SouthFloridawx.

[fci]

Eric, are you just trying to draw Stewie Griffin?

[Aric Dunn]

Eric, are you just trying to draw Stewie Griffin?

hehe .. it sort of does look like him.. lol a little more messed up looking than he already is though ..

[ColinDelia]

There was no invest this morning, so CIMSS had no "I" to click on.

Ok, gotcha. So yeah we were all just looking at different URLs. Now that that's cleared up

[Vortex]

I have a feeling once the monsoon low is said and done it’s going to be quite a read in the years to come…

[hurricaneCW]

I'd imagine if the Caribbean was larger and there was more water available, then we could of had a classic western pacific like storm develop in the Caribbean. The whole gyre setup reminds me of that.

[SouthFloridawx]

Eric, are you just trying to draw Stewie Griffin?

hehe .. it sort of does look like him.. lol a little more messed up looking than he already is though ..

You just couldn't resist the opportunity to mix weather and family guy huh? lol

[Evil Jeremy]

Convection popping up around the low close to the Yucatan:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-wv.html