ATL: OTTO - Post-tropical - Discussion

[SouthDadeFish]

Considering that hurricane was 230 years ago, the climate may have changed, if ever so slightly. But yes, I’ve also noticed that the sea surface temps in this region are the warmest in the Atlantic.
Welcome to S2K, BTW!

I'm a little late, but thank you It will be interesting to see how these extremely warm SSTs will affect 97L. Perhaps this will tend to consolidate the system farther south over the warmer waters.

[btangy]

Here's the 925 mb analysis from the PREDICT NCAR-GV flight that ran from 12-18Z today. We investigated what we're calling PGI48L. Originally, we were planning to investigate PGI51L, but we decided to go further east given the latest model data and analyses from this morning. You can see there are some pretty strong winds on the N side of the system - upwards of 40 knots! We found an area of southwesterlies stradling 10N indicative of a pretty strong wave axis, which we didn't expect to find. Combining this data with an ASCAT pass from this morning suggests a elongated area of convergence and cyclonic curvature in the low-level winds extending from 12.5N, 55W to about 10N, 48W. North of this, there is a strong easterly low-level surge. The combined curvature of the flow and speed shear to the N leads me to believe the relative vorticity is much higher than first thought. Also, this system is a separate entity from PGI49L, which is to the east and can be seen quite well in the total precipitable water as a breaking wave feature.

The ECMWF and CMC (GGEM) are the only two models developing this area in about 24-72 hours. Comparing the 00Z ECMWF 12 hour forecast with the GV data suggests it has the best representation of what's going on. The wildcard is how this area interacts with PGI49L to the east in the coming days.

[SouthDadeFish]

Thanks for all your insight btangy! It's always greatly appreciated. I'm guessing this whole thing will take a while to consolidate considering its size.

[Gustywind]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 301839
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
239 PM AST THU SEP 30 2010

A TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL MOVE TO THE WEST AND
ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS. THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL INTERACT WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS TO INCREASE THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION THROUGH
AT LEAST LATE SATURDAY. A BETTER ORGANIZED TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS TROPICAL WAVE SHOULD BE MONITOR AS SOME MODELS SUGGEST FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS THAT OCCUR ED IN THE PAST FEW DAY AND RAINFALL THAT WILL OCCUR WITH FIRST TROPICAL WAVE WILL INCREASETHE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING TO OCCUR BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

..SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
&&

$$

71/10

[SouthFloridawx]

Thanks Btangy... Does it look like 49 might catch up with 48? It looks like they might have some type of interaction in the near future.

[Vortex]

PREDICT has done an outstanding job this year...I hope this campaign is just the beginning of things to come from this organization in the future...

[Gustywind]

[KWT]

Very good information btangy, looking at the Vis imagery there is quite an obvious swirl down there...

Further south then expected from the looks of things which doesn't bode at all well for the islands though I personally expect any major development to occur once north of the islands...but we will see its still early days for this system and needs close watching, esp if it does go south of the models expectations which is quite possible.

[BatzVI]

I'm so confused by all the pouch numbers, which one might affect the northern Leewards? All of them? There's so much going on out there that I don't know what to look at. I realize we're in for a lot of rain, but could any of these develop further? LOL...do I need to think about putting my shutters back up....?

[GCANE]

Better looking than this morning.

[ColinDelia]

The 850 mb vorticity for PGI49L has really increased since this morning. This morning the max was 40 units. Now there is a significant area of 50+ units with a max of 70.

[FLpanhandle91]

Low pressure seems to be trying to make its way down to the surface this afternoon at 11 N / 53 W. I expect to see a depression within the next 48 hours.

[hurricaneCW]

That's one large mass of clouds and convection. Is it two separate entities or one big mass of storms because it literally stretches from 60W to east of 40W.

[GCANE]

Anti-cyclone holding up as well.

[Gustywind]

[Tropicswatcher]

Gusty....that satellite pic is from 11 AM, for some reason NOAA have not updated their pics since this morning!
Here is a recent satellite pic:

[Gustywind]

Gusty....that satellite pic is from 11 AM, for some reason NOAA have not updated their pics since this morning!
Here is a recent satellite pic:

Thanks i've never seen good job my friend and things have evolved looking at the latest sat pic. Maybe a very wet weekend in store for the EC and NE Carib. Let's continue to monitor carefully this suspicious area.

[chrisjslucia]

PREDICT has done an outstanding job this year...I hope this campaign is just the beginning of things to come from this organization in the future...

Here, here. For information on what is emerging from the East, Predict has been the bees' knees.

On topic, was still not sure how the weather to the west, somewhere over my head at around 60W, is part of the same system out as far as 45W but btangy's analysis of the convergence now makes sense, as this cloud cover seems minor and to have drifted off / ahead of what was Pouch 151.

[HURAKAN]

Looking very good

[wxman57]

I'd look closer to 13.5N/48W for possible development. That feature looks a good bit stronger than anything to the southwest. Doesn't matter a whole lot though, as the whole mess will be impacting the east and NE Caribbean this weekend. May not see anything spin up until Sunday, though.