ATL: RICHARD - Models

[x-y-no]

12z HWRF takes it northward across western Cuba, has a 938mb hurricane west of SFL.

[Blown Away]

938 pressure and only 102kt's??

[dwsqos2]

Yes, and right now, by the HWRF's progs this should be a 1000 mb low. I saw some extrapolated values of 1007.3 mb. It isn't verifying in the short term.

Really, the HWRF is quite bad. My statement is anecdotal, but I know skill scores can be found somewhere.

[x-y-no]

12z GFDL hitts the Yucatan at 102 hours:


then goes north to the Gulf, weakened by land interaction:

[x-y-no]

:uarrow: 938 pressure and only 102kt's??

Disrupted by crossing Cuba.

[Blown Away]

Wow, GFDL looks like Wilma all over again with track and intensity.

[caneseddy]

According to a poster at the Easternwxus board, the 12z Euro has 99L stronger than the 00z run and is further north towards the YP/Yucatan Channel

[cycloneye]

18z Tropical Models

Code: Select all

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1814 UTC WED OCT 20 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992010) 20101020 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        101020  1800   101021  0600   101021  1800   101022  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    17.1N  82.2W   16.9N  82.1W   16.2N  82.3W   15.2N  82.9W
BAMD    17.1N  82.2W   17.5N  81.5W   17.6N  81.3W   17.7N  81.6W
BAMM    17.1N  82.2W   16.8N  82.0W   16.3N  82.3W   15.7N  83.0W
LBAR    17.1N  82.2W   17.2N  81.5W   17.9N  81.3W   19.1N  81.4W
SHIP        30KTS          32KTS          35KTS          38KTS
DSHP        30KTS          32KTS          35KTS          38KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        101022  1800   101023  1800   101024  1800   101025  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    14.4N  83.7W   12.9N  85.7W   13.0N  88.1W   14.4N  90.2W
BAMD    17.8N  82.3W   17.4N  85.1W   17.3N  89.7W   18.2N  92.9W
BAMM    15.0N  84.1W   13.7N  87.5W   12.9N  91.1W   12.7N  93.3W
LBAR    20.7N  81.5W   24.6N  81.9W   28.0N  80.7W   30.9N  73.9W
SHIP        45KTS          59KTS          61KTS          60KTS
DSHP        35KTS          28KTS          30KTS          29KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  17.1N LONCUR =  82.2W DIRCUR = 120DEG SPDCUR =   4KT
LATM12 =  17.8N LONM12 =  82.9W DIRM12 =  90DEG SPDM12 =   3KT
LATM24 =  17.4N LONM24 =  83.4W
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   70NM WNDM12 =   30KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  200NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM


[x-y-no]

According to a poster at the Easternwxus board, the 12z Euro has 99L stronger than the 00z run and is further north towards the YP/Yucatan Channel

Yeah - landfall on the northern Belize border, after having brushed by Nicaragua/Honduras day 3.

Maybe a bit stronger than previous euro runs, but still quite weak.

[Vortex]

GFDL now indicates a NE turn at the end of the run....This would be concerning for FL....something to watch in future runs...

[Vortex]

12Z HWRF takes a major hurricane across western cuba to a near landfall across SW/S Florida at the end of the run...


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[Vortex]

12Z ECM quite a bit stronger just E of yucatan in 5 days...



http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP120.gif

[Vortex]

The models are beginning to converge on a more climatological favored track(GFDL/HWRF)..Something to monitor in future runs especially folks in Cuba/FL/Bahamas...

[Blown Away]

The 18z TVCN consensus is hinting towards Fl/Cuba/Bahamas!

[sfwx]

000
FXUS62 KMLB 201857
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
250 PM EDT WED OCT 20 2010

.DISCUSSION...

THIS AFTERNOON-THU...LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND ATLANTIC SEA BREEZES HAVE
BEEN A LITTLE MORE ROBUST THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER COASTAL SAINT LUCIE COUNTY AND
MOVING INTO OKEECHOBEE FROM THE WEST. ENHANCED CU DEVELOPMENT AND
FAINT RADAR RETURNS MAY ALSO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT
SPRINKLES ALONG THE BREVARD AND VOLUSIA COUNTY COASTS AS WELL.
WILL INCLUDE A PRE-FIRST PERIOD IN THE FORECAST TO INDICATE THE
POSSIBILITY OF A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE BEFORE SUNSET ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE.

SURFACE FRONT ACROSS S GA/N FL WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SWD DOWN THE
PENINSULA OVERNIGHT WITH LITTLE FANFARE OTHER THAN USHERING IN YET
ANOTHER DRY AIRMASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO TODAY`S HIGHS IN THE MID 80S...WITH LOWS
OVERNIGHT IN THE LOW-MID 60S.

FRIDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...MODERATING TEMPS EXPECTED AS FLOW BCMS
NE FRIDAY AND THEN EAST TO SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER NORTH OF FL BUILDS TOWARD THE MID ATLC REGION WITH
N-NNE WINDS NEAR 10 MPH THURS VEERING TO NELY BY FRI. OVERALL A GOOD
DEAL OF SUNSHINE WITH DRIER AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH JUST A
FEW MORE MARINE STRATOCU COASTAL SECTIONS...ESP SOUTH. MAX TEMPS A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS IN THE MID 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. SOME MARINE SHRA COULD MAKE A RUN AT THE SRN
TREASURE COAST LATE SAT NGT AS SFC-H85 TRAJ IMPLIES A THREAT FROM
ABOUT FPR SWD. HOWEVER...DEEPER MOISTURE/HIGHER PWAT AIR WILL STILL
RESIDE OVER SOUTH FL...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION JUST YET.

MON-WED...WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO SRLY AS A SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE WRN ATLC AND A LARGE/SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM
DRIFTS EWD ACROSS THE NORTH-CTRL NE CONUS. WHILE MEAN LYR MOISTURE
INCREASES SOME...MID LVL RIDGING BUILD OVER THE SERN CONUS/FL. AS IT
IS NOW LATE OCT...SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT TENDS TO BCM AN INCREASINGLY
NECESSARY INGREDIENT FOR RAINFALL THIS LATE IN THE YEAR SINCE WEAKER
DIURNAL HEATING/LOWER TD AIR AND TYPICALLY LESS ROBUST SEA/LAKE BRZ
BDRYS USUALLY DON`T GET THE JOB DONE ON THEIR OWN. WE MAY WIND UP
NEEDING SMALL RAIN CHCS FOR THE EARLY OR MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK
SHOULD ECM/GFS AGREE ON MORE SIGNIF MOISTURE RETURN. HOWEVER...AS A
LONG-TIME FCSTR HERE HAS OFTEN SAID WHILE YOU NEED A REALLY STRONG
CASE NOT TO FCST SHRA/TS IN THE WET SEASON...YOU NEED A COMPELLING
REASON TO INCLUDE PRECIP IN YOUR FCST DURG THE DRY SEASON.

TEMPS STAY ABOVE NORMAL WITH M/U80S MAXES AND MINS WARMING FROM
L/M60S SAT TO U60S/70F MON-WED.

&&



SHORT TERM...MOSES
LONG TERM....CRISTALDI
AVIATION...MOSES

[SouthDadeFish]

From Miami Forecast Office this morning:

EXTENDED FORECAST...
THE HIGH OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO
APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR THE STEERING FLOW TO SWING FROM A EASTERLY
DIRECTION TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION...AND BRING BACK SOME MOISTURE
INTO THE CWA FOR MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

Cold front by middle of next week eh? That might recurve something.

[Ivanhater]

The Euro actually brings the system into the central Gulf of Mexico as a ridge is sitting over the Florida Peninsula. Shear has actually relaxed in the GOM at the time frame some models are bringing this into the GOM after crossing the Yucatan. With the ridge over the Florida peninsula, movement would likely continue north.

Of course, this is just speculation at this time.

[Vortex]

I noticed that as well Ivan...Interesting days ahead...

[Ivanhater]

Yeah Vortex,

I am much more bullish on this system with the shear forecast being touch an go (quite favorable at times, and not that bad most of the time), instead of screaming westerlies (80 knots at times) all over the Gulf a couple weeks ago.

If this can get going (pretty good chance), and the Yucatan doesn't kill it, this could be concerning for the Gulf. This one has the best chance out of any of them recently imo.

GFS Ensembles.

[Ivanhater]

12z Euro brings 99L into SE Louisiana after the Yucatan took a toll on it.