ATL : EX TOMAS - Discussion

[KWT]

You can see where the eye feature will be once the convection fully wraps around the systems eyewall on the southern side with that Vis image.

[Vortex]

I think well have a major by morning...Tonight appears to be the night...

[boca]

I think once it gets passes the islands its going to bomb.Lets hope the storm stays away from the DR.

[cycloneye]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


IMO,when post season cyclone report is complete,they at Best Track will increase the intensity ESE of windwards and with the damage in the islands another increase.

[HurricaneStriker]

If Tomas does strike Haiti, it's the last thing the island needs. Magnitude 7 earthquake that kills thousands, cholera outbreak, and possibly, Hurricane Tomas.

[Ptarmigan]

Tomas is intensifying. I think it too can become a major hurricane.

[KWT]

If Tomas does strike Haiti, it's the last thing the island needs. Magnitude 7 earthquake that kills thousands, cholera outbreak, and possibly, Hurricane Tomas.

Along with the Gulf Oil the Haiti issue was one that was of the biggest concern, I certaiunly think Central Caribbean is looking the best bet still though this one may take a little longer then orginally expected looking at the models (the NHC may have done a good job keeping it so slow in the longer ranges...)

As long as some more dry air doesn't intrude in and stop the eyewall developmejnt process from completing this should be a major tomorrow.

[HurricaneStriker]

My predictions when you make up tomorrow:

Steady Intensification: 110 mph Cat 2 hurricane or maybe 3
Bombing!: 120-140 mph Cat 3 to Cat 4 hurricane

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Ntxw]

Lets not get into the politics of this. Every storm poses a problem and danger, everyone knows that. Statements are made based on PAPER and an enthusiasts point of view. No one has said they wish a major to slam into Haiti/DR whatnot. Saying a major forms isn't going to stop or make one as nature does what it wants not what people want it to do. God bless those in the way.

This has got to be one of the best breathing storm I have ever seen so early in it's stages.

[HurricaneStriker]

Wind shear should ramp up once Tomas gets directly south of Puerto Rico.

[img]The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[/img]

[KWT]

Tomas is intensifying. I think it too can become a major hurricane.

Oh I think I'd be surprised if it doesn't become a major at some point in its life cycle, if we look at Hazel as being probably the closest match for this point in terms of excpected track and strength of the system at this present time then a category-4 looks possible in the Caribbean...

[HurricaneStriker]

The folks on Barbados, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and Martinique are going to have a rough night just like they had all day. Tomorrow, Tomas will probably stay far enough for any repair crews to get out there.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[HurricaneStriker]

Is that an eye popping out?

[snowcane180]

This storm is very impressive. The most impressive of the season so far. Not more impressive than igor though. Imo

[boca]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

This storm will not come anywhere near Florida due to the deep trough forecast to develop over the Eastern US.Looks like the US lucks out so far lets pray that Tomas stays away from Haiti.

[KWT]

Microwave and radar do suggest thats where the eye is but right now the eyewall still isn't quite closed, but still its getting better organised.

[Macrocane]

Wind shear should ramp up once Tomas gets directly south of Puerto Rico.

Wind shear is expected to increase but it's not going the type of shear that destroys hurricanes I think it will slow down the intensification or weaken it just a bit.

[cycloneye]

Lets see what recon finds in the overnight hours in terms of how low is the pressure and how is the structure of the eye. Who is going be here to follow the data?

[CrazyC83]

Based on the improved structure since those obs, I would go with 85 kt at the intermediate advisory.

[Vortex]

Based on latest imagery and radar intensification continues and RI may begin in the next 2-4 hours as the inner core is complete...Recon late tonight will be very very interesting...