ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[Ivanhater]

Interesting placement of the formation potential

[Weatherfreak000]

This situation could not be more ideal. The center of 93L is about to move over the most absurd heat potential in the depths of the entire Atlantic Ocean with 5 knots of shear. I'm telling you we could wake up and see a nicely structured system tomorrow. Watching 93L consolidate in long satellite loops is really impressive.

[Aquawind]

Interesting placement of the formation potential

Makes ya think they are still uncertain of the LLC to the west or the MCL to the east.

[wyq614]

I have two questions, the first is about the Best Tracks you posted, we can see the abbreviation DB and WV for disturbance and wave, then which of the two indicates a higher grade of development? The second is if 93L experiences rapid (or even exploding) intensification between 82W-84W, will it be pulled north towards western Cuba?

[ROCK]

Interesting placement of the formation potential

that is not where I would have put it.....but they have their reasons I am sure..

[Ikester]

Stronger storms are always subject to patterns at or above 500 mb because they tower high into the atmosphere. Weaker storms aren't nearly as high...hints the MUCH warmer cloud tops.

[Ivanhater]

Yeah, you would think with such a large area of convection they would have had a large circle like we have seen in the past

[wyq614]

And... I see Cuban met stations record less rain amount than yesterday, is it indicating that the convection is being wrapped towards the center SW of Jamaica?

[Rockin4NOLA]

Interesting placement of the formation potential

that is not where I would have put it.....but they have their reasons I am sure..

If I'm right, is this farther North (ie. closer to Cuba) than the models have been starting from? I'm asking this b/c wouldn't that possibly make the track towards the Northern GOM more likely assuming the trough/ridge holds?

[ozonepete]

Actually looks like it's consolidating just to the south-southeast of Jamaica.

[Ivanhater]

Intense little burst SW of Jamaica..strongest I have seen so far with this system

[HURAKAN]

72 hours ... interesting wave north of the islands

[HURAKAN]

Accuwx's take

[Weatherfreak000]

Intense little burst SW of Jamaica..strongest I have seen so far with this system

I was just about to post about this it caught my eye as well. Bombs away?

[SunnyThoughts]

In the past, I have always enjoyed watching storms form, and tracking them as they move through the Atlantic, Caribbean and GOM. This year, All I feel is dread. I rode out to the beach today, cried all the way home thinking about how all the oil/sludge MESS looked on the beautiful pristine sand, and how many lives will be disrupted because of it. Before things get too hectic with 93l/Alex/hurricane, whatever it becomes...I'd just like to wish everyone living along the coast good luck this hurricane season, be prepared and hope for the best.

[AdamFirst]

Accuwx's take

Always the optimistic ones, AccuWeather

[ROCK]

Looks like they are discounting the EURO with that graphic...

[SoupBone]

Looks like they are discounting the EURO with that graphic...

Yeah they kicked him to the curb....

[ozonepete]

Intense little burst SW of Jamaica..strongest I have seen so far with this system

I was just about to post about this it caught my eye as well. Bombs away?

Thunderstorms are consolidating further to the east of that little convective burst.

[brunota2003]

For the Accuwx track...Left arrow near Galveston...The center of that "area" is almost right on NO, and the right arrow is near Pensacola...HM. Just an observation.