ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[hurricaneCW]

It looks like there's nothing there and the shear has clearly increased over the system. I hope not all future systems have a tough time developing.

[coreyl]

Anyone want to take a guess at what percentage the NHC gives 97 L of developing in its next update coming up?

[wzrgirl1]

I think it will remain at 70%.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[cycloneye]

It has to move away from Hispanola to then get the inflow because right now,the mountains there are a big impediment.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[cycloneye]

Down to 60%, Recon Postponed until tommorow

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA HAS
BECOME LESS ORGANIZED. CONSEQUENTLY...THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
MISSION HAS BEEN POSTPONED UNTIL TOMORROW. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
IS NOT EXPECTED TO FORM TODAY BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
STILL FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA INTO THE
BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA TODAY AND WILL LIKELY SPREAD OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...AND THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE HEAVY
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Blown Away]

What is the Best Track position? Let's see if the latest ball of convection keeps building? Hispaniola is a magnet for these systems.

[fci]

It looks like there's nothing there and the shear has clearly increased over the system. I hope not all future systems have a tough time developing.

And I hope that ALL systems DO have a hard time developing! If where you live is in the crosshairs, I think you might feel the same way.

[HURAKAN]

What is the Best Track position? Let's see if the latest ball of convection keeps building? Hispaniola is a magnet for these systems.

[HURRICANELONNY]

The moron on fox weather this morning said 70%. Then he showed the loop. I said WHAT. Looks like crap. I guess they lie a little for ratings. If the ULL moves out. Maybe it has a chance. I say 50%.

[Blown Away]

The convection to the north of the "circulation center" is now slowly making westward progress against the shear. Maybe this is the beginning of the conditions becoming more favorable for development with regards to shear. The recent ball of convection could fizzle again or continue and bomb out in a few hours, either way would not surprise me. I still wouldn't be surprised to see a TD by the end of the day.

[Kingarabian]

[Vortmax1]

Down to 60%...that's good and sounds right.
It sure would have been nice to get a plane in there today. There's really no reason now though...it would have been great to get that information though.

This is much better news for Florida. Keep delaying development and maybe this will all float on by.

[HURAKAN]

between two upper lows

[Raininfyr]

From NO NWS: THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHIFT BACK AND FORTH LATER IN THE
FORECAST BUT GENERALLY AGREE ON A TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA
AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF. ON A POSITIVE NOTE...A FEW MODELS ARE
FORECASTING A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SHEAR OVER THE EASTERN GULF
IN 48-72 HOURS. IN THAT CASE...THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH OF A SYSTEM
TO SPEAK OF. FOR NOW HAVE RAISED POPS OVER THE WEEKEND TO 40 TO 50
PERCENT TO ACCOUNT FOR AT LEAST AN INCREASE IN TROPICAL MOISTURE.

The wave ain't wavin' this morning! Shear is doing it's thing. Wise to keep an eye on it, but, it sure looks sickly at the moment. NHC is still figuring on something happening and, that for now, is enough to keep me watching closely.

[Gustywind]

LATEST

[hiflyer]

Been working in DC...flew home from there to Ft Lauderdale on JetBlue...catch the tropical update on their LiveTV...and whadidyaknow.....grin. Agreed looks rough this morning but the cluster is getting slightly away from the mountains and looks somewhat better frame by frame but think the 60% is generous for now.

[wxman57]

I don't think there's a circulation center, but I see lower-level turning near 20.9N/70.4W - well west of where the models initialized. I don't think it stalled overnight, it's still moving. Definitely look west of that convection for development.

Tropical waves just don't stop moving. The wave is still moving west at 5-10 mph. However, there is a hot spot where the wave encounters increased lifting southeast of the upper low. That hot spot remains stationary, making it look like the wave isn't moving.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

What a mess this morning. Went to bed around 10 last night thinking we could very well have a developing TD by morning only to find a sheared out, almost remnant tropical wave. Think the NHC is being generous giving it a 60% chance of development in 48 hrs. Personally feel there will not be much less than a weak wave axis to track in 48 hrs. Shear and dry air are ripping this apart and dont see it letting up in the near future. The ULL to the nw of 97L is just as strong as yesterday and not moving out or weakening, in fact looks to be moving due west in tandem with 97. Just don't see how this survives another day against these conditions. Florida and the Keys got really lucky, looks like the gulf coast did as well because no models are showing much if any strengthening in the gulf either this weekend.