ATL: NICOLE - Ex Tropical Storm - Discussion

[Bocadude85]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rb.html


Convection is starting to burst in the area southeast of the isle of youth... wonder if we have a new LLC developing

[Vortex]

Vorticity analysis supports a center SE of the isle of youth.

00Z GFS at 6 hours(2am) supports your comments..Has the low back SE of the Isle of youth...

[blp]

Its time for a poll question? Where is the center??? Winner gets a free trip to visit NHC....

[FLpanhandle91]

Looks be yet another LLC at 20.5/83.2

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-ir2.html

[SouthDadeFish]

I say south of the Isle of Youth where Predict has it at. And considering the NHC is on my campus won't be too expensive of a trip

[Vortex]

I've found 3 possibles...

[Vortex]

I think the main low is SE of the isle of youth and NW of the caymans

[SouthDadeFish]

I really wish I could stay up and see what recon finds. Doesn't matter much though, still is poorly organized lol.

[Vortex]

looks like NC is going to take the firehose...

[AtlanticWind]

If I had not been following this for days and just took a look a this loop I would put the center SW of the caymans, and also be thinking this could be a big storm.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-rb.html

[SouthDadeFish]

If I had not been following this for days and just took a look a this loop I would put the center SW of the caymans, and also be thinking this could be a big storm.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-rb.html

Wow I would completely agree, but I think the way the convection is firing leads to that misconception. That loops shows how large of a system this is though.

[SouthDadeFish]

Miami-Dade county might have the center of two tropical storms pass through it this cane season with little to no impact. We are very lucky for timely wind shear. Those two storms being Bonnie and possibly Nicole.

[boca]

Does anyone see the beginnings of an upper level low off the SW coast of Florida to throw more of a wrench into this sysytem.

[SouthDadeFish]

Does anyone see the beginnings of an upper level low off the SW coast of Florida to throw more of a wrench into this sysytem.

Bryan Norcross mentioned that earlier today, which is what he blamed that westward shift in the models on.

[SouthDadeFish]

And I'm going to get some sleep. Will be an interesting day tomorrow. Would like to see at least a little rain, but no flooding please. Maybe one or two squal lines would be nice Hopefully we can learn more about these big monsoonal type systems after this experience.

[boca]

That could pull more moisture over S FL then expected.

[brunota2003]

Looking at the IR imagery...nothing from Florida to New York is moving east...everything is moving due north. This certainly is interesting to watch unfold. We've gotten a bit of rain here in NY, and it all has been traveling right up the I-81 corridor...of course, we haven't gotten as much as NC, but not sure how much more we can take. This front needs to hurry up and move out.

[dwsqos2]

Thanks to the gfs, I am now going for no Nicole.

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[AtlanticWind]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-rgb.html

One low shooting pretty quickly NNE over western cuba another SW of the caymans not moving very much.

[FLpanhandle91]

Circulation SW of the Caymans seems to be the dominant one. AL16's LLC is almost invisible.