ATL : EX TOMAS - Discussion

[Vortex]

Lets see what recon finds in the overnight hours in terms of how low is the pressure and how is the structure of the eye. Who is going to be here to follow the data?

count me in

[KWT]

Based on the improved structure since those obs, I would go with 85 kt at the intermediate advisory.

I suspect recon probably will find 80-85kts winds when it goes in unless it suffers again...

[HurricaneStriker]

Lets see what recon finds in the overnight hours in terms of how low is the pressure and how is the structure of the eye. Who is going to be here to follow the data?

count me in

Wait, where can you find the recon info?

[cycloneye]

Lets see what recon finds in the overnight hours in terms of how low is the pressure and how is the structure of the eye. Who is going to be here to follow the data?

count me in

Wait, where can you find the recon info?

Here or Here

[snowcane180]

I think recon will find 90knots tonight given the intense convection around the center

[HurricaneStriker]

Here or Here

But then what link do you click? "RECCO Observations (tropical cyclone)" ?

[brunota2003]

I can't really get a good fix on this system, thanks to the unusual infrared display. It looks like it is getting ready to go through a case of rapid intensification in about 6 to 12 hours, but I cannot be sure.

This was posted at 12:36 pm...I am excited for the Recon flight, to find out what they find in Thomas tonight (don't take this the wrong way, I don't want Thomas to RI, and would prefer it completely dissipate)...but this could be the second case I caught based off a "study" I did, and looking at the latest infrared images, it definitely appears RI is very likely tonight. Probably a Cat 3 by the 5 am or 11 am advisory, IMO.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

Here or Here

But then what link do you click? "RECCO Observations (tropical cyclone)" ?

That is it.

[brunota2003]

FYI...if you are going to post sat images, please save them first and post it using imageshack (or other source).

[HurricaneStriker]

Here comes an eye

[KWT]

Obviously an eye there BUT the eyewall is still a little weak in places, esp on the SE side and until that closes I don't think this is rerally going to get much above 85kts till that occurs, but when it does occur then no reason this doesn't shoot upto major status...

[Vortex]

Tomas, about ready for take off..I's say another 2-3 hours and at least low-end RI begins...

[Gustywind]

Let's pray for our friends in St Lucia!:( scary moment
http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/current/stlucia.shtml

Lesson learnt....
By mike_7800 at hotmail.com
Date: Sat, 30 Oct 2010 23:32:52 +0000

Tomas took us unexpectedly.....as careful and prepared as we always try to be,
I saw a tropical wave headed to us yesterday morning and dismissed it as a wet
weekend. By 5pm we were under a TS warning and by 8pm a Hurricane warning. The
day started out with some heavy gusts and minimal rain. By this afternoon we
had no power island wide, currently experiencing torrential rainfall, have
serious TS force winds for lengthy periods.

Property has been definitely lost, roofs, businesses, flooding, downed power
lines and poles, downed trees etc island wide.

The storm surge has apparently affected both airports and some hotels and
coastal dwellings.

All radio stations seem to be down.

May god guide us through the night, I believe we have, especially in the south
taken a serious pounding from this one.

Will report more as it comes.

Mike
Sent from my BlackBerry® BOLD.

[cycloneye]

FYI...if you are going to post sat images, please save them first and post it using imageshack (or other source).

By uploading images at imageshack,you can for example see the wave that gave birth to Tomas as it was emerging West Africa on October 23rd. Yes,that was the wave

[Gustywind]

Very nice line of showers are affected us in Guadeloupe since 20 minutes...
I can clearly see that a cyclonic phenomen is in the area! I really understand what our friends in St Lucia St Vincent Barbaros have endured today and seems to continue unhopefully tonight The night should continue to be long and perturbed for many carib friends . Let's keep our fingers crossed hoping that Tomas will move away quickly the EC now!

[Gustywind]

[latitude_20]

Holy carp, just look at the convection...

[HurricaneStriker]

Look at all that green and red.

[Gustywind]

That's was not to late... but Tomas has winds up to 150 KM/H not so far from a cat 2 cane.
000
WTNT31 KNHC 302352
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE TOMAS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
800 PM AST SAT OCT 30 2010

...CORE OF TOMAS MOVING AWAY FROM ST. VINCENT AND ST. LUCIA...

SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 61.7W
ABOUT 40 MI...70 KM NW OF ST. VINCENT
ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM WSW OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES

[msbee]

stormcarib.com report from St. Lucia:

Lesson learnt....

* By mike_7800 at hotmail.com
* Date: Sat, 30 Oct 2010 23:32:52 +0000

Tomas took us unexpectedly.....as careful and prepared as we always try to be,
I saw a tropical wave headed to us yesterday morning and dismissed it as a wet
weekend. By 5pm we were under a TS warning and by 8pm a Hurricane warning. The
day started out with some heavy gusts and minimal rain. By this afternoon we
had no power island wide, currently experiencing torrential rainfall, have
serious TS force winds for lengthy periods.

Property has been definitely lost, roofs, businesses, flooding, downed power
lines and poles, downed trees etc island wide.

The storm surge has apparently affected both airports and some hotels and
coastal dwellings.

All radio stations seem to be down.

May god guide us through the night, I believe we have, especially in the south
taken a serious pounding from this one.

Will report more as it comes.

Mike