ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm FIONA - Discussion

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dwsqos2

Re: ATL: Tropical Storm FIONA - Discussion

#841 Postby dwsqos2 » Wed Sep 01, 2010 1:13 am

I saw 1002.3 mb and 1002.1 mb extrapolated. Flight-level winds were only only as high as 43 knots, but SFMR is higher than before. Still, it's a bit stronger than I ever expected it to become.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm FIONA - Discussion

#842 Postby blp » Wed Sep 01, 2010 1:15 am

Confirmation of what we were seeing before the eclipse with the increased convection on the IR.

dwsqos2 wrote:I saw 1002.3 mb and 1002.1 mb extrapolated. Flight-level winds were only only as high as 43 knots, but SFMR is higher than before. Still, it's a bit stronger than I ever expected it to become.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm FIONA - Discussion

#843 Postby dwsqos2 » Wed Sep 01, 2010 1:52 am

Then again the low is pretty poorly defined, good enough for a VDM though.

52 knots max, 1001 mb extrap.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm FIONA - Discussion

#844 Postby dwsqos2 » Wed Sep 01, 2010 3:53 am

Meh...the low center is actually rather decently defined. The pressure is up to 1004 mb. I do wonder if the 1001 mb value was recorded in a mesovortex.
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#845 Postby Gustywind » Wed Sep 01, 2010 3:58 am

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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm FIONA - Discussion

#846 Postby Brent » Wed Sep 01, 2010 4:06 am

Interesting little nugget from the discussion:

ALL OF
THE MODEL GUIDANCE...EXCLUDING NOGAPS...NOW SLOWS DOWN FIONA BY DAY
3...WITH THE CYCLONE POSSIBLY GETTING TRAPPED IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. AS RESULT OF THESE NEW SCENARIO...A 96-HOUR POSITION HAS
BEEN ADDED AND DISSIPATION HAS BEEN DELAYED UNTIL 120 HOURS. IF
FIONA BECOMES A STRONGER SYSTEM THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...THE
CYCLONE COULD SURVIVE AND END UP MAKING A CLOCKWISE LOOP OR EVEN
BECOME STATIONARY BY 120 HOURS.

Image
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#847 Postby Gustywind » Wed Sep 01, 2010 4:22 am

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#848 Postby KWT » Wed Sep 01, 2010 4:39 am

That is a very interesting tibbit from the NHC indeed, thats what some of us have been thinking about on here, if it survives then there is a chance conditions become more condusive for this system...

Fiona is just about far enough away from Earl not to get absorbed but its tight still!
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#849 Postby Gustywind » Wed Sep 01, 2010 4:54 am

Given a friend from Antigua rain has already make its approach. More is to come. Be vigilant all my friend in the Leewards Islands. Stay tuned.
:rarrow: http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/current/antigua.shtml
Quiet night but rain has started
By Alan Scholl <scholla at candw.ag>
Date: Wed, 1 Sep 2010 05:04:15 -0400

It has been either a very quiet night or have been sleeping very soundly. It
just started to rain though very light.I heard some thunder in the distance and
a few lightning flashes were also just seen followed by more thunder.

5AM posItion is 17.4N 60.2W

Alan Scholl
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm FIONA - Discussion

#850 Postby chrisnnavarre » Wed Sep 01, 2010 5:02 am

I don't think she'll ever make it as far north as that 2am Sunday position...I'd bet she gets trapped and moves west. I also think she's going to be a significant storm before this all over. Euro was on to something that was for sure.
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#851 Postby KWT » Wed Sep 01, 2010 5:03 am

Fiona is struggling with the center still but has some very impressive winds at the moment, FL recorded 58kts about 20 mins ago so winds maybe as high as 45-50kts but the center is not all that impressive.
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#852 Postby Evil Jeremy » Wed Sep 01, 2010 5:26 am

Why is there no TS warning yet for the Northern Leewards? Also, anyone think that a center relocation to the bigger blob of convection south of the LLC is possible?
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm FIONA - Discussion

#853 Postby xironman » Wed Sep 01, 2010 5:35 am

Evil Jeremy wrote:Why is there no TS warning yet for the Northern Leewards? Also, anyone think that a center relocation to the bigger blob of convection south of the LLC is possible?


Interesting thought, on the recon they are having trouble locating the center.
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Re:

#854 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Sep 01, 2010 5:39 am

Evil Jeremy wrote:Why is there no TS warning yet for the Northern Leewards? Also, anyone think that a center relocation to the bigger blob of convection south of the LLC is possible?


A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY

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Re: Re:

#855 Postby Evil Jeremy » Wed Sep 01, 2010 5:52 am

HURAKAN wrote:
Evil Jeremy wrote:Why is there no TS warning yet for the Northern Leewards? Also, anyone think that a center relocation to the bigger blob of convection south of the LLC is possible?


A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY


I meant the area currently under the watch. As in:

"A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS"

Shouldn't they be under a warning at this point?
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#856 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Sep 01, 2010 5:54 am

Not going to make much of a difference. This system is weak.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm FIONA - Discussion

#857 Postby Blown Away » Wed Sep 01, 2010 6:29 am

Wow, Earl really separating from Fiona now!!
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm FIONA - Discussion

#858 Postby blazess556 » Wed Sep 01, 2010 6:30 am

Blown Away wrote:Wow, Earl really separating from Fiona now!!

in the last nhc update, earl was moving at 16 mph and fiona at 14 mph.
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#859 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Sep 01, 2010 6:39 am

recon finds 998 mb
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#860 Postby Boriken » Wed Sep 01, 2010 6:46 am

Isn't that the center NE of Barbuda? And looks like on NHC predicted pat.

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Last edited by Boriken on Wed Sep 01, 2010 6:49 am, edited 1 time in total.
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