ATL: IGOR - Ex Hurricane - Discussion

[Just Joshing You]

I'm not missing the features you describe but I do disagree with that interpretation.

That's fine. This is a great place to talk it out and I've eaten plenty of crow on here. Not to forget to mention that you are one of the best people on here.

And this from the NHC 11PM:

"AN EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT FROM UW-CIMSS RUN AT NHC INDICATES
THAT THERE IS A 42 PERCENT CHANCE OF SECONDARY EYEWALL FORMATION
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...AND A 90 PERCENT CHANCE WITHIN 24 HOURS.'

If it was undergoing an EWRC like you claim it is, NHC would have said that rather than that it has a 42% chance of of doing so within 12 hours.

[ozonepete]

I'm not missing the features you describe but I do disagree with that interpretation.

That's fine. This is a great place to talk it out and I've eaten plenty of crow on here. Not to forget to mention that you are one of the best people on here.

And this from the NHC 11PM:

"AN EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT FROM UW-CIMSS RUN AT NHC INDICATES
THAT THERE IS A 42 PERCENT CHANCE OF SECONDARY EYEWALL FORMATION
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...AND A 90 PERCENT CHANCE WITHIN 24 HOURS.'

If it was undergoing an EWRC like you claim it is, NHC would have said that rather than that it has a 42% chance of of doing so within 12 hours.

I never said it was undergoing an ERC. I said it is likely to - I actually corrected my first post to clear that up. And a 90% chance of it happening within 24 hours seems like it's pretty likely.

[ozonepete]

Eye continues to contract...

[ozonepete]

The envelope/wind field is still expanding. This is going to be a really large hurricane.

[emeraldislencguy]

why do we have to try to always analyse or be a tough critic all the time
i love this site but sometimes we jsut need to chill some

[HURAKAN]

Nice pic

[stormhunter7]

To me and based on the data i have seen... i do believe that an EWRC started just after sunset. All sat imagery is showing the eye shrinking and becoming smaller. I expect in early morning the sat presentation will look a little less symmetric... but durning the day we could see Igor bottom out and go through another RI stage, very similar to Isabel 03. I really wish the global Hawk was based in Wallops Facility (sp?) (will be next year i have read) so that NASA could send it out over the storm in the far Atlantic and get some amazing Data sets.
This wv imagery is showing signs of DRY air in the eye... very interesting if its true. Outer eyewall could be trying to kill the inner eyewall?

[Aric Dunn]

whats sad is that it was and is a cat 5.. just no recon to verify.. there was as solid ring of convection around the eye ... im rather discouraged it was not upgraded to cat 5... i have seen many other cat 5's in my time and it has clearly been one... but the lack of upgrade is simply as by product of no direct data.

[Aric Dunn]

hopefully in post analysis they will make it a Cat 5 ...

[stormhunter7]

hopefully in post analysis they will make it a Cat 5 ...

agree... in the last ten years we have learned from a scientific point, that the best data is on scene real data. While sats can catch the storm from above... until we get inside a system.... we usually under estimate a stronger system.

[emeraldislencguy]

it looks weake now what do yall think

[WeatherGuesser]

This Modis Rapid Response image is 5.9Mb and 5,600 x 7,200 pixels.

http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/gall ... 0.250m.jpg

But it gives good detail and a shot down inside the eye.

[WeatherGuesser]

it looks weake now what do yall think

I think you have a different definition of weak than most of us.

[KWT]

I don't think Igor peaked at cat-5 Aric, it was probably close but given the heat content down where it is I'd have expected even deeper convection if it was to be a 5. No doubts in my mind though this is close...amazing hurricane either way!

[brunota2003]

it looks weake now what do yall think

I think you have a different definition of weak than most of us.

think he meant "weaker"

[emeraldislencguy]

it is late meant to say it looked weaker now that a few hours ago

[emeraldislencguy]

thanks havelock guy

[FlSteel]

Good morning all, for the most part I just lurk, not an active poster, but I have been watching this storm all night and it appears to me that at worst it has been holding its own. In the last few hours it appears that from IR the eye has become much better defined. Don't know if this will strengthen anymore before an EWRC or not. But a darn near picture perfect storm. Definitly one for my archives.

[WeatherGuesser]

Hmmm, no upgrade at 5AM. Still a four.

Code: Select all

500 AM AST MON SEP 13 2010

...CATEGORY FOUR IGOR CONTINUES WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 48.8W
ABOUT 940 MI...1515 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...935 MB...27.61 INCHES

[WeatherGuesser]

I guess by Wednesday morning we'll have a better idea of which islands might be affected.