ATL: NICOLE - Ex Tropical Storm - Discussion

[boca]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-rgb.html

One low shooting pretty quickly NNE over western cuba another SW of the caymans not moving very much.

That low did it just pop up or has it been there all along? I've been looking at the one closer to Cuba and I never saw the other one,,good catch.

[FLpanhandle91]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-rgb.html

One low shooting pretty quickly NNE over western cuba another SW of the caymans not moving very much.

That low did it just pop up or has it been there all along? I've been looking at the one closer to Cuba and I never saw the other one,,good catch.

This one seems to be right on course for Miami.

[ConvergenceZone]

I'm telling ya, in the end, we will all be commenting on how over-hyped this storm was.....


edit: and when I'm talking about over-hyped, I just mean for Florida...

[AtlanticWind]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-rgb.html

One low shooting pretty quickly NNE over western cuba another SW of the caymans not moving very much.

That low did it just pop up or has it been there all along? I've been looking at the one closer to Cuba and I never saw the other one,,good catch.

I saw that earlier tonight, have been wondering if this could reform as the other low ejects to the noirth. also possible that TD 16 justs drags this along .

[fci]

But there was no way that we could ignore what the models were, and are; telling us.

[brunota2003]

I don't think it is over hyped...remember the flooding in the Wilmington, NC area just the other day? Well, here is their forecast through Friday, thanks to our little "friend":

Overnight: A chance of showers, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 3am. Low around 66. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Wednesday: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 78. East wind between 7 and 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 2 and 3 inches possible.

Wednesday Night: Showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Low around 73. Breezy, with a east wind between 16 and 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts in excess of 4 inches possible.

Thursday: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 8am, then showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly between 8am and 2pm. High near 80. Breezy, with a southeast wind between 21 and 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between three quarters and one inch possible.

Thursday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 72. Breezy, with a south wind between 14 and 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 79.


NWS is saying they expect 7 to 11 inches of rain by Friday morning to fall.

[Ladylight]

Hey guys, id appreciate a quick opinion My husband has a pool service and is insisting on working tomorrow in the Jupiter area, since he heard the schools are not closing (yet, anyway). With the tornado threats, is it safe to be out in what the morning and afternoon will bring?

[boca]

It sjust a jumbled mess down there.Don't know where to look anymore.

[Ladylight]

I'm telling ya, in the end, we will all be commenting on how over-hyped this storm was.....


edit: and when I'm talking about over-hyped, I just mean for Florida...

I'd prefer overhype to under hype any day. At least then, some folks prepare.

[Cuber]

Hey guys, id appreciate a quick opinion My husband has a pool service and is insisting on working tomorrow in the Jupiter area, since he heard the schools are not closing (yet, anyway). With the tornado threats, is it safe to be out in what the morning and afternoon will bring?

I'm not a smart man ... but holding a lightning rod while cleaning debris out of swimming pools that will only fill back up with more debris later in the day doesn't sound logical especially if his nickname is Fenny (my pool guys nickname) ...

[fci]

Hey guys, id appreciate a quick opinion My husband has a pool service and is insisting on working tomorrow in the Jupiter area, since he heard the schools are not closing (yet, anyway). With the tornado threats, is it safe to be out in what the morning and afternoon will bring?

I'm not a smart man ... but holding a lightning rod while cleaning debris out of swimming pools that will only fill back up with more debris later in the day doesn't sound logical especially if his nickname is Fenny (my pool guys nickname) ...

Well I am of the opposite opinion.
Does he work on those days that we have summer thunderstorms and a SW or W flow that bring them to the coast?
Or those days when we get early to late morning storms when the seabreeze moves inland?
Because tomorrow looks to be a combination of those; periodic bursts of heavy rain with maybe some lightning mixed in.
There is no reason to expect an entire day of storms. We will get waves of them or maybe not.
I would not change my schedule at all if I were your husband. Do what he usually does when he seeing lightning or hears thunder.
Finally, in my opinion; the tornado threat is minimal.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[summersquall]

Its time for a poll question? Where is the center??? Winner gets a free trip to visit NHC....

LLC at 19N 83W. (my guess)

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

Hope trip to NHC includes souvenirs!

[Sanibel]

Not much happening here. No wind, patches of quilty moonlit clouds.


If a center grabs it will show up on Key West long range radar.

[SouthFLTropics]

Looking at Key West long range radar it appears that the center is probably somewhere SSE of Havana...Other than that I have no idea. Forget looking at the sat pics to get an idea. You're wasting your time. Personally unless this gets a fairly decent structure together in the straights I don't think it should get named. I have a hard time seeing that this is a purely tropical cyclone right now and I really don't want them to waste the name Nicole on this mess. Nicole was one that I had picked out preseason as being a big one...LOL

SFT

[FLpanhandle91]

I retract my previous statement. Best defined LLC is clearly at 23.1/80.5 in the recent frames.



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-ir2.html


IR Shortwave is a good tool for pinpointing LLC's.

[ericinmia]

This is a warm core tropical system right now, see below...
If it takes the GFS track, you can see it's progression though away from being purely tropical...
The FSU phase graphs are very helpful if you want to figure out where a storm stands.

[FLpanhandle91]

This is a warm core tropical system right now, see below...
If it takes the GFS track, you can see it's progression though away from being purely tropical...
The FSU phase graphs are very helpful if you want to figure out where a storm stands.

http://img408.imageshack.us/img408/8342/12phase1.png

Awesome graphic!

[ericinmia]

Sorry I forgot the main link to the FSU Phase page....
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/

It is a little hard to get used to...

[floridasun78]

rain have start here in miami near airport let see how much we get

[wzrgirl1]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php ... R&loop=yes