ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[cycloneye]

2009 again?

[wxman57]

Perhaps an eddy - it won't last long in that hostile environment...

Looks like the wave axis there. Don't think it's an eddy. Look for convection to redevelop associated with this feature today. First on the east side, then wrapping around the north side as shear slowly relaxes.

wxman57 do you still think this will develop into something before reaching Florida? What do you think the chances of development are?

Yeah, I think it has a better-than-not chance of becoming TS Bonnie before it reaches Florida, but maybe not much more than 50%. Chances of it being a hurricane when it reaches Florida may be in the 10% range now.

[HURAKAN]

In a month from now, a disturbance in that area and we may not get so lucky.

[Vortex]

Latest Hi-res Visible(1230utc) for the first time appears to indicate a developing LLC near 20/70. Waiting on surface/ship obs to confirm. While the system is still facing shear as a result of the ULL to the NW imagery suggest some banding beginning to form on the NW quad which may be a sign that shear is in the process of abating some.

[Thunder44]

Here is the real story about why 97L has not organized. As HURAKAN said earlier,97L is in the middle between upper lows and not to forget the dry air.

It's not really in the middle. If it was, would be directly under a ridge. It's closer to the ULL to the NW, which is causing more shear over it now.

[HURAKAN]

Remember our friend Danny from 2009? Just north of this area and under a lot of shear. Sometimes systems can form under shear, but every system is different.

[Bocadude85]

How would 97L be able to develop when it is so close to the ULL?

[Gustywind]

LATEST

[wzrgirl1]

Looks like some nice convection blowing up over the Dominican Republic.

[Bocadude85]

It looks like that ULL may finally be pulling away to the west

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-rb.html

[thetruesms]

Man, that ULL just will not clear out, will it? But I'm okay with it stunting our little friend's progress.

I'm pretty much with wxman on this one - development is getting held back right now, but it's also not being very destructive towards the system, either. Once that ULL backs to west enough, the progression will continue more unfettered. But every bit longer it can hold things back, the better it is for Florida.

[latitude_20]

Looks like there's still signs o' life there...

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

The moron on fox weather this morning said 70%. Then he showed the loop. I said WHAT. Looks like crap. I guess they lie a little for ratings. If the ULL moves out. Maybe it has a chance. I say 50%

ROFL are you new here? WSVN drums things up just because there is nothing else going on. "lie a little" is an understatement.

I think the only reason anything even happened here was due to the ULL, It gave her a little kickstart, but its impeding things by now. We shall see.

[Frank2]

Here's the WV loop - actually the ULL appeared to weaken overnight (as compared to yesterday) but it's sharpened up again this morning, though it's now moving slowly W instead of SW as it did yesterday:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

still, as Max Mayfield (Hurricane Specialist for WPLG in Miami) said yesterday evening, the disturbance will have to deal with fast moving winds from the NW as it moves WNW...

I'm sure if the NHC had any confidence that 97L would do anything quickly they'd have not cancelled today's invest, but the present environment is poor at best...

Frank

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

I'm on outflow boundary watch from the recent N of DR convective complex over the eddy.

[StormClouds63]

Looked better yesterday than this morning. May drop to 40-50% (orange) unless shear relaxes. I was confident that 97L would result in nothing less than a tropical depression. Now, I'm not so sure. Satellite presentation clearly shows dry air and shear inhibiting development.

[jlauderdal]

Here's the WV loop - actually the ULL appeared to weaken overnight (as compared to yesterday) but it's sharpened up again this morning, though it's now moving slowly W instead of SW as it did yesterday:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

still, as Max Mayfield (Hurricane Specialist for WPLG in Miami) said yesterday evening, the disturbance will have to deal with fast moving winds from the NW as it moves WNW...

I'm sure if the NHC had any confidence that 97L would do anything quickly they'd have not cancelled today's invest, but the present environment is poor at best...

Frank

ever since channel 10 brought on max a whole bunch of nothing has happened in our part of the world, he has the easiset forecasting job in the world

[hurricaneCW]

Maybe we won't get Bonnie from this invest after all, the environment is pretty awful. I don't see how it's conducive for development. It's between 2 ULL and gettiing bombarded by heavy shear and it's in a stable, dry environment. The tropics are always full of surprises, after last night, I thought for sure that we could see a TD today.

[gatorcane]

It seems to be on an organizing trend again. I see where WxMan has found a possible LLC and convection is building on the east side and trying to wrap around the north side it seems. Let's see if it continues.

[Bocadude85]

It seems to be on an organizing trend again. I see where WxMan has found a possible LLC and convection is building on the east side and trying to wrap around the north side it seems. Let's see if it continues.

Yup I see the convection building also but I am wondering if it is shear induced convection?