ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

[Recurve]

Good old GFDL, scaring the crap out of Louisiana.

FSU site seems up to date on some models but has Nov 2009 FSU ensemble? Is it discontinued. Maybe somebody answered this but I'm just tuning in.

[deltadog03]

I agree AFM....Even the GFS is still showing somewhat of a nice upper high over the W and C GOM...

[Ntxwx]

I believe Alex will landfall somewhere along the Texas/Mexico border as a minal Hurricane, or a strong Tropical Storm.

[Air Force Met]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_200_084l.gif

Its the NAM, I know...BUT IF that is right **IF** then this sucker could explode in the gom with an anticyclone parked on top of it....

I've been wondering why the intensity forecasts have been so low for the last couple of days. I also don't agree with the current forecast for a weak TS at day 5 from the NHC. I think conditions will be a lot more favorable than they do. I think the problem lies in the fact the models were not developing a system...and thus were not placing the high in the right place. With a developed system...the high will be more likely be in a favorable position.

You don't think with the CONUS trough digging into the south that the UL winds don't pick up from the SW?

I don't buy the deep CONUS trof. I think its overdone and the models taking Alex to the north are out to lunch. I don't see it ever getting north of 25...if that.

[LaBreeze]

If steering currents relax, as some are saying, what then?

[thetruesms]

I don't buy the deep CONUS trof. I think its overdone and the models taking Alex to the north are out to lunch. I don't see it ever getting north of 25...if that.

There I go squishing Texas in my geography again. I was about to strongly object to 25N as way too far south, and then I glanced back at the map and realized that's right in the neighborhood of where I'm thinking

Honestly, there's been something bugging me about how the storm gets pushed back down south in GFS, it feels to me me more like it should just level out through landfall. But I really have nothing to justify that beyond a gut feeling, which is wholly unsatisfying, because that's no justification at all

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

The new GFS model does not bring it north of 25N with landfall of a TS in Mexico south of Brownsville. ECMWF has also brought it into Mexico as a TS for the last several runs. With this good model consensus, it's quite possible it may miss the US entirely. I'm still quite certain Florida is not a target (as I mentioned earlier this week though some were quite shocked at my comments, however, I wouldn't state them unless I really felt very certain). My original forecast was through the Yucatan and into the BOC with a Mexico or S. Texas landfall. That certainly seems quite possible.

Good news is that it is looking less and less likely that the oil-stricken areas of the Northern and NE GOM will be impacted by this system. Right now its either Mexico or Southern Texas for eventual landfall and I am leaning towards Mexico at this point.

[ROCK]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_078l.gif

old GFS at 78....BOC...

[psyclone]

you did call it gatorcane and in general your prognostications have gotten much better the last couple of years. terrific work!

[Ivanhater]

OLD GFS

[Nederlander]

OLD GFS

Hmm.. thats interesting.. wasnt the GFS on board with the mexico model consensus camp in earlier runs? that looks more like TX/LA border..

[ROCK]

the trof is digging pretty deep also.....

[Ivanhater]

the trof is digging pretty deep also.....

Gotta love the unknown in the tropics lol

[ROCK]

the trof is digging pretty deep also.....

Gotta love the unknown in the tropics lol

you up for the EURO tonight?

[Ivanhater]

Of course, not expecting much of a change though

Old gfs looks to split

[Ivanhater]

Both versions of the 00z GFS show "Alex" stalling in the BOC and getting drawn up by the trough

[HouTXmetro]

I thought we were discounting the old GFS? and hasn't it consistently showed a Norther Gulf solution?

[Ivanhater]

I thought we were discounting the old GFS? and hasn't it consistently showed a Norther Gulf solution?

No, it never has. he newer version did a couple days ago.

GFS is persistent on digging the trough

[A1A]

What's the link for the EURO and when does it run?

[ROCK]

What's the link for the EURO and when does it run?

for us it is 1:45 am....