ATL: KARL - Ex-Hurricane - Discussion

[brunota2003]

First Igor RIed, now Julia just RIed (currently ongoing!), and now it looks like Karl is thinking about getting in the act...really high cloud tops on IR.

[CrazyC83]

First Igor RIed, now Julia just RIed (currently ongoing!), and now it looks like Karl is thinking about getting in the act...really high cloud tops on IR.

The only thing preventing Karl is that land is near.

[brunota2003]

For a prolonged episode, yes, but I could see it pulling a Humberto...recon just descended, guess I'll stay up long enough to catch the first pass through!

[CrazyC83]

For a prolonged episode, yes, but I could see it pulling a Humberto...recon just descended, guess I'll stay up long enough to catch the first pass through!

I was about to go to bed, only to be turned away by Julia...amazing day and night. I'd love to see a potential 94L become Lisa today and start RI'ing as well...but where?

[brunota2003]

For a prolonged episode, yes, but I could see it pulling a Humberto...recon just descended, guess I'll stay up long enough to catch the first pass through!

I was about to go to bed, only to be turned away by Julia...amazing day and night. I'd love to see a potential 94L become Lisa today and start RI'ing as well...but where?

Haha, sadly there aren't even any areas being watched on the TWOs now, everything's developed! So that would be one major bust by the NHC

[FLpanhandle91]

What are the chances that Karl reaches cat 1 status before its Yucatan landfall? Dvorak and microwave signature is VERY impressive and it has undergone RI over the last couple hours. At this rate, I believe it still has space to develop into a hurricane.

[brunota2003]

Category 6: Karl Takes Over The World...coming soon to a theater near you!

[dwsqos2]

From the latest set of HDOBs, the center is south of 18.5 N.

And, the newest set shows a wind shift around 18.25-18.3 N. This is a bit south of the NHC's 2AM position.

[Brent]

AL, 13, 2010091506, , BEST, 0, 183N, 862W, 55, 997, TS, 50, NEQ, 25, 20, 20, 25,

55 kts!!!!!!!!!! Should have a special advisory anytime now.

[KWT]

Wow looks like the W.CAribbean is doing its stuff, and this gets upto 55kts, I did think it could get quite strong given conditions even before the Yucatan.

[alan1961]

Anyone having issues with the floater over Karl?..the wideview
is ok but the floater is not.

Ok its back working again

[srainhoutx]

Karl looks very impressive this morning as it nears Chetumal on the Y/P. I see what may well be an eyewall structure developing.

[KWT]

I'm amazed no one is posting about Karl, we've got a rapidly strengthening system from the looks of things, the core is tightening out rapidly before landfall and I wouldn't be shocked if this was very close to cane status by the time it makes landfall...

Also remember Alex blew up like this at a similar time...and that system had deeper pressure on the way out then it had on the way in...

I think the threat is there for a 2/3 cane for landfall in Mexico...conditions clearly are and have been good in the BoC so no reason for that not to be possible, the hurricane models are real bullish about it as well...

[TheBurn]

[cycloneye]

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 87.6W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM E OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES

[KWT]

I honestly suspect that this system is stronger then 55kts right now but without recon in there its pretty hard to know one way or the other, it sure does look like its stronger then that, esp with a small weak warm spot on the IR starting to show as well!

Bombing system into landfall does not bode well for the BoC...I fully expect 75-85kts at 2nd landfall like Alex. The only thing that would prevent that was if it didn't gain much more latitude then it has right now, then the closeness of the system to land would hurt the system.

[brunota2003]

closeness to land sure hasn't hurt karl up to this point...the yucatan lucked out, another 12 to 24 hours and they would of been dealing with a hurricane easily

[KWT]

The thing is Brutona I'm not sure how much the Yucatan will hurt this system, the system will probably fatten out somewhat overland as the inner core goes overland but it'll likely still be quite a small tight system.

[tolakram]

I'd say we got lucky this thing didn't have much time over water.

[brunota2003]

I'm thinking the same, it all depends on how fast it shoots across, really.