ATL: RICHARD - Remnant Low - Discussion

[HurricaneQueen]

May you, your family and friends be safe, BZStorm. We've been looking for you for a few days and wishing you well.

Lynn

[HURAKAN]

very impressive

[Sanibel]

Can't wait to get reconnaissance pressure readings from the look of the convection.

[Weatherfreak000]

Visible imagery suggests this indeed may be at the cusp of Cat 2. Definitely has the fist look and eye is clearing out rapidly. RI has definitely been occurring today and we could have easily have had our 6th major of the season of this had just a little bit more time.

[Aquawind]

[Sanibel]

Cloud tops warmed prior to landfall:

[cycloneye]

Does anyone wants to post the google graphics of the flight? I ask because the storm2k member that is in Belize (BZSTORM) wants to see how is going.

Note= I see is being posted now,thanks brunota.

[dwsqos2]

While my no 'cane call was a total bust, note that subjective t numbers from SAB were only around 4.0 at 1745Z. Granted, Richard is small, and it has been leading satellite intensity estimates for a while now, but I'm not so sure that it's a category 2.

[SouthDadeFish]

I almost think he's going through an eyewall replacement cycle. You can see a larger outer eyewall on radar.

[TheDreamTraveler]

I almost think he's going through an eyewall replacement cycle. You can see a larger outer eyewall on radar.

I think it's just the eyewall trying to get its act together. Richard hasn't been a hurricane for too long. Normally hurricanes go through eyewall replacement cycles when they're much stronger.

[HurricaneStriker]

I almost think he's going through an eyewall replacement cycle. You can see a larger outer eyewall on radar.

I think it's just the eyewall trying to get its act together. Richard hasn't been a hurricane for too long. Normally hurricanes go through eyewall replacement cycles when they're much stronger.

But did Alex earlier in the season undergo erc?

[Sanibel]

First pass shows only category 1. 82Kts Flight Level - Estimated 67Kts surface.


Looks like Richard is the second storm of late in this area to show a Fist and not follow through with intensification.

[cycloneye]

Two web cams from Belize.Looks very windy in those areas.

[Aquawind]

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Macrocane]

WiInds have really picked up on those webcams. It seems that Richard is about to make its first landfall on those islands (I think they're Turneffe islands).

[cycloneye]

Decoded first VDM:

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 20:15Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number & Year: 19L in 2010
Storm Name: Richard (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 10
Observation Number: 05
A. Time of Center Fix: 24th day of the month at 19:55:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 17°04'N 87°35'W (17.0667N 87.5833W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 50 miles (80 km) to the SE (127°) from Belize City, Belize.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,270m (4,167ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 67kts (~ 77.1mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 9 nautical miles (10 statute miles) to the NE (46°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 139° at 82kts (From the SE at ~ 94.4mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the NE (46°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 982mb (29.00 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,521m (4,990ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 10°C (50°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed Wall
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 82kts (~ 94.4mph) in the northeast quadrant at 19:51:50Z

[brunota2003]

Just as an FYI, that webcam has a wx station with it (visited their website)...here is the link to their wx station:
http://cayecaulkerweather.com/weatherda ... r-data.htm

Right now about 35 mph sustained, with gusts to 40...pressure 1008.1 mb and falling rapidly. Where is Caye Caulker at exactly?

[Macrocane]

Here's the link http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caye_Caulker

[cycloneye]

Here it is.Very small island behind the larger one is where the cam is.