ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

[HurricaneRobert]

By the way we shouldn't totally discount the GFDL...remember a certain storm starting with K that dived SW and the GFDL was the only one to call it...

Some of these models did not exist back then.

[Weatherfreak000]

La Nina patterns and troughiness needs to me monitored.

[ROCK]

http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... el%20plots

0z BAMMS shifting left...

[Nederlander]

UKMET shows Darby getting pulled eastward into S. Mexico by TD 1..

[HouTXmetro]

Even though the EURO flipped flopped it did originally show a West Gulf landfall... looks like it wins again.

[Weatherfreak000]

Even though the EURO flipped flopped it did originally show a West Gulf landfall... looks like it wins again.

That type of complacency in posting is what makes people want to contest you so-called "Euro Huggers". Can you please NOT try and spread false complacency? You can go around talking all you want about how "the Euro won", after the storm has dissipated.

[cycloneye]

More left shift by 00z GFDL.

888
WHXX04 KWBC 260521
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE 01L

INITIAL TIME 0Z JUN 26

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 16.7 84.0 295./ 7.0
6 16.8 85.1 273./10.7
12 17.3 86.3 293./13.1
18 17.9 87.1 308./ 9.0
24 18.1 87.9 285./ 8.3
30 18.6 88.7 304./ 9.4
36 19.0 89.7 289./ 9.6
42 19.5 90.1 318./ 6.3
48 19.8 90.4 322./ 4.6
54 20.2 90.8 314./ 5.9
60 20.8 91.1 336./ 5.9
66 21.4 91.2 349./ 5.7
72 21.9 91.3 341./ 5.6
78 22.5 91.7 333./ 6.5
84 23.2 92.1 328./ 7.8
90 23.9 92.5 329./ 8.9
96 24.7 92.8 340./ 8.2
102 25.6 93.1 342./ 9.0
108 26.5 93.6 332./ 9.9
114 27.3 94.1 326./ 9.1
120 27.8 94.6 319./ 6.6
126 28.3 95.0 314./ 6.5

[ROCK]

Even though the EURO flipped flopped it did originally show a West Gulf landfall... looks like it wins again.

That type of complacency in posting is what makes people want to contest you so-called "Euro Huggers". Can you please NOT try and spread false complacency? You can go around talking all you want about how "the Euro won", after the storm has dissipated.

what false complancency and what contest?

[ROCK]

GFDL shifting away from the NGOM solution.....still the right outlier...

[HouTXmetro]

There just isn't any support for a NGOM track. We still remain vigilant.

[Nederlander]

[ROCK]

GFDL puts ONE right into the extreme west end of Galveston at 88knts- 101mph.....not to shabby...highly doubt that will verify...I think its just taking baby steps to catch up with the rest of the models.....


Edit - did make 96knots before landfall....that is a high end Cat 2 and very Ikish.....

[Wx_Warrior]

Let's hope the EURO is close to being right! Why get mad over something like that? Long season

[HouTXmetro]

GFDL puts ONE right into the extreme west end of Galveston at 88knts- 101mph.....not to shabby...highly doubt that will verify...I think its just taking baby steps to catch up with the rest of the models.....

Agreed....baby steps, unlike the HWRF which did a Wild flip from panhandle to Mexico in one run..lol

[Nederlander]

Let's hope the EURO is close to being right! Why get mad over something like that? Long season

im usually inclined to side with the GFDL, but i have to side with the EURO on this one..

[ROCK]

got word that the EURO has stuck to its guns even though my sites have not updated yet....I have heard that a select few are able to see it earlier than the rest of us...

[Wx_Warrior]

My brother (KFDM_met) has it...he'll email image shortly...

[ROCK]

its out to 96hr

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP096.gif

[ROCK]

http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... el%20plots

[ROCK]

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 00!!!step/


EURO is out....not much change.....night night...