ATL: Remnants of PAULA - Discussion

[jconsor]

Agreed about the shear and dry air issues increasing as Paula gets further north.

I don't see much chance at all of Paula going across south FL in any case. The amplification of the eastern US trough so far east (around 75-80W longitude) and the orientation of the trough virtually assures that if Paula accelerates, she will head E/ENE toward Cuba or the Bahamas, not NE toward south FL.

The farther north Paula goes, the higher the shear. Take a look at the projected upper-level wind flow across FL and the FL Straits in 3 days. Westerly winds 50-60 kts over south FL, 100 kts over the northern Peninsula in the jet core. It will be hard to get a hurricane to hit Florida with that wind flow. And the upper winds don't really diminish over the next week or two.

Paula could well be picked up by the trof and accelerated to the NE as per the GFDL, or it could be weakened significantly by increasing shear, perhaps dissipating in the NW Caribbean. I'm starting to favor the former.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_084m.gif

[Dave C]

looking more symetric last couple of hrs with feeder band forming in southern portion of cdo. looked more elongated se to nw earlier.

[AdamFirst]

Whether it meanders in the Caribbean or gets picked up by the cold front, the end result for Paula doesn't look pretty...it's headed for the guillotine either way

[Sanibel]

The dry airmass wins. We should have known the system had problems when it didn't pull in the convection trailing-off along the boundary to its NE:

[KWT]

That being said Sanibel the fact it got to a hurricane at all was alot stronger then most of the models were suggesting even on the more agressive runs, only really the GFDL suggested this was a possible outcome.

I think the idea that it does get taken ENE or close to S.Florida and Cuba as a weakening system is probable BUT the big uncertainty is obviously with regards to how it interacts with the jet, I remember the whole hurricane Wilma thing were it was expected to be at 60kts when it made landfall according to some models and it ended up alot stronger then that...

[SFLcane]

The tone of excitement that was here last night is significantly lower this a.m. I'm sticking with the fat lady.

Not eactly sure the reason for the excitement last night as its quite obvious from the start this system was really going to have an extremely difficult time being a significant issue for sfl with that strong westerly flow across the GOM which has been in place for now 3-5 days and really isn't going to slacken off for a while would just about decapitate any system that would get far enough north to threaten the US. Also the fantasy tc the GFS has in its long ranges maybe just be that fantasy and might never come to pass.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[KWT]

Quite a tight system there Hurkan, I wouldn't be at all surprised though to see this get downgraded at some point today.

As for the system down the line, that totally depends on what happens with Paula I think and how long it manages to survive and linger on in the Caribbean.

[SouthDadeFish]

The tone of excitement that was here last night is significantly lower this a.m. I'm sticking with the fat lady.

Not eactly sure the reason for the excitement last night as its quite obvious from the start this system was really going to have an extremely difficult time being a significant issue for sfl with that strong westerly flow across the GOM which has been in place for now 3-5 days and really isn't going to slacken off for a while would just about decapitate any system that would get far enough north to threaten the US. Also the fantasy tc the GFS has in its long ranges maybe just be that fantasy and might never come to pass.

I don't mean to speak on behalf of everyone, but in my eyes, I'm not so sure it was that it would threaten SFL as I'm not sure anyone believed the jet wouldn't rip it up. It's that it had the potential to really grow last night as shear seemed to be dropping and the core was wrapping up nicely over the warmest waters in the Atlantic Basin. Perhaps the excitement washed over form the quick formation of a 60 mph TS. I expected Paula to weaken, but I didn't expect it to look like this in the morning. I believe this is one of the last chances to see a strong hurricane in the 2010 season, and that's why many got excited.

[Evil Jeremy]

Quite a tight system there Hurkan, I wouldn't be at all surprised though to see this get downgraded at some point today.

I think a downgrade should happen, though the NHC should wait until recon support.

[KWT]

Yeah EJ may as well wait for recon given how close it is to recon now...

I'd imagine much depends on whether there is any sort of inner core in the system, its quite small though and I think shear probably will hurt this...esp once it gets north of 20N...

Looks like it probably will make landfall on the Yucatan as well, going to be interesting to watch radar from there in 24hrs or so...

[HURAKAN]

another close up

[tolakram]

Note sure about a downgrade. Current pulse of convection looks good and observing the surrounding environment I'm not seeing any strong shear at the moment. It appears to me Paula will have 24 or so hours of decent conditions before getting close to the higher shear.

LOOP: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5



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[SFLcane]

The tone of excitement that was here last night is significantly lower this a.m. I'm sticking with the fat lady.

Not eactly sure the reason for the excitement last night as its quite obvious from the start this system was really going to have an extremely difficult time being a significant issue for sfl with that strong westerly flow across the GOM which has been in place for now 3-5 days and really isn't going to slacken off for a while would just about decapitate any system that would get far enough north to threaten the US. Also the fantasy tc the GFS has in its long ranges maybe just be that fantasy and might never come to pass.

I don't mean to speak on behalf of everyone, but in my eyes, I'm not so sure it was that it would threaten SFL as I'm not sure anyone believed the jet wouldn't rip it up. It's that it had the potential to really grow last night as shear seemed to be dropping and the core was wrapping up nicely over the warmest waters in the Atlantic Basin. Perhaps the excitement washed over form the quick formation of a 60 mph TS. I expected Paula to weaken, but I didn't expect it to look like this in the morning. I believe this is one of the last chances to see a strong hurricane in the 2010 season, and that's why many got excited.

Oh dont get my wrong that explosive intensifcation rate yesterday was nice to see. Here's a piece of masters blog this morning...

Paula intensified remarkably quickly, setting a modern record for the fastest intensification from the issuance of the first advisory to hurricane strength. The first advisory for Paula was issued at 5pm EDT yesterday, and Paula strengthened into a hurricane just twelve hours later, at 5am EDT this morning. Since reliable record keeping of intensification rates of Atlantic hurricanes began in 1970, when regular satellite coverage became available, no storm has ever intensified into a hurricane that quickly. Hurricane Humberto of 2007 held the previous record for fastest intensification from first advisory issued to hurricane strength--18 hours.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1653

[HURAKAN]

I don't think it will be downgraded

[KWT]

I think we'll find Paula was a TS/TD WAY before the NHC started advisories up, Wxman57 thinks this may have been a TD way back on Saturday and I agree with him...

I bet the postseason report will make this a TD quite abit before the first advisory and the fact that recon found 50kts winds on the first pass through of recon shows they probably were off the ball with this one.

It doesn't look too bad actually on some of those Vis images, maybe 65kts is still the right call given it looks a pretty neat ball of convection.

[Evil Jeremy]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc10/ATL/18L.PAULA/ssmi/composite/20101012.1035.f15.x.composite.18LPAULA.60kts-991mb-172N-850W.65pc.jpg
I don't think it will be downgraded

Well now we know it still has an organized inner core. Recon should be interesting.

[SouthDadeFish]

Convection just looks really lopsided to the SW in the core.

[KWT]

Thats not a bad inner core there Hurakan, I was hoping someone would put up a Microwave imagery and you can see the inner core still looks pretty healthy.

Recon will be interesting thats for sure...

Hopefully for the E.Yucatan the shear increases and prevents this system from hitting the Yucatan's NE coast as a hurricane.

[canes04]

what is this talk about downgrading and not looking good.
It looks better than ever right now.

I'm going with cat2 tonight.