ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[Stormcenter]

I don't see it either. Maybe I need stare at it a little longer.

:uarrow: I'm sorry, I just don't see it to the southeast of Jamaica, looks like all the ll clouds are streaming off to the NW.

[ConvergenceZone]

Because of the oil spill, every wave in the carib will be mentioned by media

[KWT]

I don't see it either. Maybe I need stare at it a little longer.

:uarrow: I'm sorry, I just don't see it to the southeast of Jamaica, looks like all the ll clouds are streaming off to the NW.

I don't think there is much of a circulation present, but as Wxman57 himself said thats the area to watch because we have more condusive conditions to develop convection in this region and the models, esp the ECM developed this region on its 0z run.

[HouTXmetro]

This looks a mess.....Got to be vigilant but to me today is worst than yesteday. I'm leaning towards little to no development.

[AdamFirst]

Once again, after two days of it "looking better than it has ever been", its back to a completely disorganized mess. In my totally unprofessional opinion, it will not develop...there's zero model consistency and it simply just won't get its act together, just like 92L.

Then again I'm not as patient as most of you

[KWT]

It is indeed a mess, but we do need to watch the convection to the S/SE of Jamiaca as it heads westwards towards the W.Caribbean with the better conditions aloft in terms of upper divergence I still think it needs to be watched closely.

The orginal wave that the NHC is IMO doomed to do nothing.

[psyclone]

i concur with the "no development" sentiment. the system has consistently looked like junk since being declared an invest. in fact, it seemed as if both 92 and 93L both looked best shortly after being declared invests. perhaps the invest declaration is the kiss of death. At any rate, count me in the "downcasting" camp on this one. i'm sure we'll have plenty of action soon enough.

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[KWT]

Very broad and weak turning is just about visable on the wave to the S/SE of Jamiaca, not all that strong but there is something with the convection...but the best convection just can't seem to get away from Haiti...hopefully its not going to be that type of year like 2008 where nothing could escape Haiti...

[CrazyC83]

Shear is too high IMO for much to happen. If it makes it to the Gulf, it might develop there, but I don't see anything happening anytime soon. Although continuing due west would make this an EPAC system. I think this almost has as good of a chance at becoming Estelle as it does of becoming Alex.

[KWT]

By the way, all the storms SE of Jamaica where the system appears to be consolidating is NOT the same wave that generated 93L. That wave has moved out west of 80W and another has come in from the east. We tracked both waves since Africa for the past 10 days. In fact, the models actually appeared to be developing this 2nd wave and not the one in front that was identified as 93L. Regardless, the place to watch is SE of Jamaica not west of 80W where the models were initialized.

By the way here is Wxman57's post from earlier saying the area to watch is not 93L but the wave to the east....

Shear does indeed look to be a little high, my confidence of development has gone down today but quite a few models still develop something, plus I think it looks likely to head into the BoC which has a habit with short term quick development...

[cycloneye]

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/index1.html

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 241430Z JUN 10//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 100NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.5N 79.6W TO 17.7N 83.8W WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
2. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 79.6W IS CURRENTLY MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT APPROXIMATELY 10 KTS. AT 24/1200Z INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED AN AREA OF CONVECTION THAT HAS PERSISTED
FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO AN AREA OF
RELATIVELY LOWER WIND SHEAR, UPPER LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONIC OUTFLOW AND IS
TRACKING TOWARDS WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 83 TO 86 DEGREES
FAHRENHEIT, HELPING TO ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS TROPICAL FEATURE.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO A WARNING OR ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
BY 251500Z JUN 2010.//

[ronjon]

Definitely have two "CC" rotations - the low level one exposed off to the west that looks to be moving toward honduras and probably a mid-level center SE of JAM. Unless a LLC develops underneath the mid-level rotation, I don't see much organization happening to the wave.

[rockyman]

Is this the first TCFA for 93L?

[tolakram]

Is this the first TCFA for 93L?

Third, if I counted correctly.... though I can find no evidence to back me up. <----- Not sure where to look.

[KWT]

I'm a bit confused about that TCFA...because that western wave has really got next to nothing with regards to convection...

That being said just recently I think I can see SW winds on the eastern side of the broad circulation on the Vis.imagery, maybe showing a proper closed circulation is somehow forming.

Still a great big mess, that circulation though has probably stopped the MLC system from becoming dominant as its in a far more condusive region...I still think the western wave is doomed to do nothing, won't be long before its inflow is affected by CA.

[tolakram]

For what it's worth this floater moved back to 74W

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... is_floater

[cycloneye]

Is this the first TCFA for 93L?

Yes,is the first one.

[rockyman]

My take, based on the TCFA:

[tolakram]

This floater is over what appears to be a LLC (last 9 frames)

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 211315.GIF

That LLC appears to be about ready to go inland.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

[Ivanhater]

I just dont know with this one