ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[Ikester]

From the best that I can tell, the center is here

[Blown Away]

Open up the 97L Visible Floater and run the loop. Turn on the Lat/Longs and look between 69-70W and 19.5-20.5N, I see what appears to be the LLC tucking iteslf under the deep convection. If that is the LLC it is moving NW??

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[HURAKAN]

A surface center or LLC appears to be forming as convection is increasing and inflow is establishing from the south. Starting to look like its brother Danny from last year!!

Loop - http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

[Weatherfreak000]

Man, I gotta agree with you guys it certainly has been looking horrible today. The Mid level shear undercutting it is really doing it's toll.


However, the problem 97L has which was the same problem Alex was the spread out vorticity. Recently as shown in the graphic above, the vorticity has dulled somewhat. However, it has also become more consolidated. The SST's and shear are going to be quite favorable tonight unto tomorrow.



As far as track....we are looking at the SAME situation as Alex again. The models wanna send it WNW then curve into a weakness while it has a chance to feel the weakness, and in response the invest stays weak. However, Alex developed, but by the time it did develop it was burying itself into the Yucatan. I think maybe drop to 50% today with increases in percentages from tonight. Potentially TD#3 by 2P.M tomorrow.

[Ivanhater]

Obviously if this is where the LLC is forming that is a bit west of where the models initialized and certainly not going over Cuba like some of the models were hinting at. Looks like a wnw heading, north of where the UKMET and others had it.

[HURAKAN]

Loop - http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... is_floater



Appears to be taking a page out of the book of Danny, Erika, etc.

[Bocadude85]

Open up the 97L Visible Floater and run the loop. Turn on the Lat/Longs and look between 69-70W and 19.5-20.5N, I see what appears to be the LLC tucking iteslf under the deep convection. If that is the LLC it is moving NW??

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

To me it looks like the coc is still to the west of the convection

[Ikester]

Def looks like a LLC near 21.5 N and 71.3 W...or in that general neighborhood. Anybody else see it?

[Blown Away]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8vor.GIF

Man, I gotta agree with you guys it certainly has been looking horrible today. The Mid level shear undercutting it is really doing it's toll.

However, the problem 97L has which was the same problem Alex was the spread out vorticity. Recently as shown in the graphic above, the vorticity has dulled somewhat. However, it has also become more consolidated. The SST's and shear are going to be quite favorable tonight unto tomorrow.

As far as track....we are looking at the SAME situation as Alex again. The models wanna send it WNW then curve into a weakness while it has a chance to feel the weakness, and in response the invest stays weak. However, Alex developed, but by the time it did develop it was burying itself into the Yucatan. I think maybe drop to 50% today with increases in percentages from tonight. Potentially TD#3 by 2P.M tomorrow.

Great summary and I agree with you! The next few hours will be critical for the longterm track, IMO. The Vorticy and the area where the LLC may be have lined up, so maybe things are coming together and this developing trend will continue?

[cycloneye]

Lets have a quick poll about what % will NHC give at 2 PM TWO.

I say it stays at 60%.

[Bocadude85]

Lets have a quick poll about what % will NHC give at 2 PM TWO.

I say it stays at 60%.

I think it will drop to 50%

[HURAKAN]

Lets have a quick poll about what % will NHC give at 2 PM TWO.

I say it stays at 60%.

I think it will drop to 50%

I think it will stay at 60% bc it's over the next 48 hours. If it was in the next 12-24 hours, then I would drop it to 30-40%.

[poof121]

Stays at 60%, if only because now the 48 hours they refer to is shifted back 6 hours.

[Ikester]

I think it'll stay at 60% because anything lower would be dropping a category into the 'medium range.' I think the NHC will stay with the status quo for now.

[Blown Away]

Back to 70%, looks better than earlier.
What was the "Best Track" position?

[TheBurn]

70%... because once it gets going, it should really get going.

[Vortmax1]

I doubt if the NHC is willing to drop below 50% because of the land masses ahead. They'll want to keep it as high as they can get away with.

Personally I would go with 40%.

[canes04]

70%

Question, If this develops tonight or tomorrow would we (SFL) go straight to TS warnings/Hurricane Watch?
would be very short notice.

[cycloneye]

Back to 70%, looks better than earlier.
What was the "Best Track" position?

20.0N-70.0W at 12z.

[Bocadude85]

70%

Question, If this develops tonight or tomorrow would we (SFL) go straight to TS warnings/Hurricane Watch?
would be very short notice.

I think the chances of a hurricane are very low at the moment