ATL : INVEST 92L - DISCUSSION

[Ivanhater]

Hmm. Thunderstorm complex continues to expand despite the shear.

[RL3AO]

I believe the shear is probably whats causing the thunderstorms.

[Ivanhater]

I believe the shear is probably whats causing the thunderstorms.

Then we should see this complex moving off to the NE, not expanding to the SW...

[bahamaswx]

Really exploding in convection now.

[Weatherfreak000]

I have to agree with ivan here, the convective bursting of the past 8 hours has been nothing short of fascinating. I mean 20% chance of development? I think something is a miss here. Those shear maps must not be entirely accurate...92L is benefiting a favorable environment.

[OURAGAN]

This complex will move straight to the west for the moment

CONVECTION FROM 14N-22N BETWEEN 53W-56W. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
WWD...

[hurricaneCW]

If it ever manages to get into the gulf, we could have big problems. There's plenty of August like energy in the Gulf and Caribbean. If the shear were to let up, we'd see it ramp up rapidly. Will the shear let up is the question?

[cycloneye]

Ivan is right about convection expanding to the SW and south as this afternoon it was all north of 15N and tonight extends to just below that latitude.

[Rainband]

wow this is one organizing Invest

[Ivanhater]

hmmm is that west winds sw of the main complex?

[Dean4Storms]

Crazy system, I expected to see nothing this evening but a naked wave and instead find a convective burst that has some potential if it maintains. These waves that fight are usually the ones that once they get into a favorable environment are sudden developers. Need to keep tabs on this one for sure.

[Gustywind]

Ivan is right about convection expanding to the SW and south as this afternoon it was all north of 15N and tonight extends to just below that latitude.

So that mean that portions of the Windwards could experience some some strongs showers and squally weather too! Not too good news for the EC? This thing is popping and repopping tremendously now

[Dean4Storms]

I don't think it would take much slowing of the LL forward movement to the west for this to help the low stack enough to develop and close off.

[cycloneye]

Look how big this complex has turned into. And yes,those -80C cloud tops continue.

[Ivanhater]

New image..STILL expanding and VERY cold cloudtops

[Gustywind]

BRIGHTENESS in this messy ball... an EUPHEMISMA

[Gustywind]

New image..STILL expanding and VERY cold cloudtops

Oh yeah, impressive!

[Dean4Storms]

Is that not an UL Ridge just to the SW of this convection which looks to be centered over the southern Windward Islands?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-wv.html

[djones65]

Based on the island reports from Martinique which showed winds from almost north or 20 degrees at 8 knots and pressure of 1012 mb, Guadeloupe which reported NE winds at 14 knots, and Dominica which reported light variable winds after being NNW or 350 degrees at 5 knots leads me to believe whatever low level vorticity maximum present is still out ahead of the deep convection and is located in vicinity of Dominica near 16N and 60.7 W. Obviously this system is still under westerly shear and will remain so for the next 24 to 36 hours, but there is strong evidence of increased ridging over the system as the upper level low north of Puerto Rico continues westward pulling the strongest westerly winds north and westward. Perhaps in 36 to 48 hours upper level winds will be more conducive to allow some development. I just wanted to point out the surface obs from the leeward islands indicate the vortmax is not under the deep convection and is located about 60 miles or so west of the concentrated tstms.

[Weatherfreak000]

I would argue based on the current trend an immediate increase to orange on the TWO....don't they have tons of buoy data out there?