ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[PTrackerLA]

I'm thinking no development either. Hopefully the naked swirl and its convection to the east can keep chugging along westward and get buried in Mexico. We need to keep the gulf storm free as long as possible with this horrible spill ongoing.

[Brent]

I just dont know with this one

Me either dude.

[tailgater]

If it doesn't develop out of 93l I don't think will develop.

[rockyman]

The folks who issued the TCFA seem to think that the storm will form well to the east of the "naked swirl"...closer to the convection around 79.6W...the naked swirl is around 82W

It looks like a compromise between the original 93L vorticity and the newer vorticity that has rushed in from the east

[tolakram]

Not sure, but someone said yesterday he thought this was going to the EPAC. If you look at MIMIC-TPW the swirl headed NW, then west, and is now headed SW toward land and the EPAC. For some reason they think this LLC will move NW or redevelop, not sure why.

[rockyman]

My Take on this:

[tolakram]

I'm not seeing a new vortex.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=12

[KWT]

The folks who issued the TCFA seem to think that the storm will form well to the east of the "naked swirl"...closer to the convection around 79.6W...the naked swirl is around 82W

It looks like a compromise between the original 93L vorticity and the newer vorticity that has rushed in from the east

I can see southerly winds I think at lower levels pretty close to the TCFA location, so I'm guessing that it isn't a compramise but they are following that circulation. MLC is still quite far away.

[HURAKAN]

between 92L & 93L, I think I have exhausted the little bit of patience I had!! lol

[HURAKAN]

12z identifies a low pressure moving NW

[bahamaswx]

I can't see much happening as is. Going to have to reform much further to the east.

[HURAKAN]

72 hours ... crashing into Yucatan

[HURAKAN]

Vorticity

[SunnyThoughts]

First TCFA issued on the day where everyone has doubts about it even developing now lol What a confusing globbety gloop of a mess.

[HURAKAN]

lol

[KWT]

Clearly nothing is going to form from that area they are wathcing Hurakan, the only shot this might have is if it decides to recurve, but I think it stays shallow like that its going to not recurve at all and pound right into CA with no return.

Besides I still favour the Jamican region far more, at least there is convection in that area!

ps, that being said convection is forming on the east side of that low level swirl they are tracking, lol!

Circulation about 6-12hrs away from hitting land, will probably then see a reformation of the weak circulation towards the convection.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU JUN 24 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS ACCOMPANIED BY A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE
HONDURAS-NICARAGUA BORDER. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED WITH
MOST OF THE CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING WELL
TO THE EAST OF THE LOW AND AFFECTING MUCH OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS
IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/CANGIALOSI

[HURAKAN]

wow, they're tracking the ghost

[tolakram]

What interests me, at least today, is the rather vigorous inflow and curving convection noted in this loop and drawn on the image below. This is closer to the second wave and also some curving noted in the MIMIC-TWP loop. In my opinion either this area takes over soon, or possibly after the low goes inland, or 93L is nothing.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=12


93L 'low' outside this image (noted by the curved orange line)

[tailgater]

Clearly nothing is going to form from that area they are wathcing Hurakan, the only shot this might have is if it decides to recurve, but I think it stays shallow like that its going to not recurve at all and pound right into CA with no return.

Besides I still favour the Jamican region far more, at least there is convection in that area!

ps, that being said convection is forming on the east side of that low level swirl they are tracking, lol!

Circulation about 6-12hrs away from hitting land, will probably then see a reformation of the weak circulation towards the convection.

Most of the models seem to keep this area weak until after it, or as it crosses the Yucatan. It is starting to tighten a bit. More waiting. Didn't wxman say something about Friday or Saturday.