ATL: IGOR - Ex Hurricane - Discussion

#961 Postby **deltadog03** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 10:50 am

Again, here is the CURRENT steering flow...It will change, but for now this will chug around due west. Its blocked from going WNW NW or N....GFS looks like its breaking down the ridge too quickly. (a usual bias)

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

gixxer · #962 Postby **gixxer** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 10:51 am

i have faith in the models for the most part but you can't deny that CMC model run is a little scary.

KWT · #963 Postby **KWT** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 10:55 am

It is dropping slightly but also last few hours its slowed down yet further so I'd imagine probably in the next few hours a WNW motion will start to kick back in again.

Shuriken · #964 Postby **Shuriken** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 10:56 am

Gixxer, do you have a link to that one? Thx.

#965 Postby **deltadog03** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 10:59 am

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

gixxer · #966 Postby **gixxer** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 11:01 am

i use http://weather.myfoxtampabay.com/maps/W ... emaps.html
and
http://www.stormpulse.com/

im sure of the other guys have much better recources but it seems to work for my novice butt

#967 Postby **painkillerr** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 11:01 am

If it slows down (as it seems), it can miss the trough and continue west.

KWT · #968 Postby **KWT** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 11:04 am

I'd be surprised if it did hit that Deltadog but I think that WSW is just about done now as well, the slowdown in the last few hours looks like the classic slowdown you get as the system starts to feel a weakness to the north...

Either way every bit further west probably puts Bermuda and places west at higher risk...though odds of a E.Coast strike are still frankly tiny...

x-y-no · #969 Postby **x-y-no** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 11:08 am

painkillerr wrote:If it slows down (as it seems), it can miss the trough and continue west.

If the GFS is even close to right in building the mid-level ridge over Florida/Cuba/Haiti then that doesn't seem possible. It would have to go SW, which seems unlikely in the extreme.

#970 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 11:09 am

Latest

plasticup · #971 Postby **plasticup** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 11:09 am

gixxer wrote:i use http://weather.myfoxtampabay.com/maps/W ... emaps.html
and
http://www.stormpulse.com/

im sure of the other guys have much better recources but it seems to work for my novice butt

I couldn't get that link to work on my phone, but I thought the 00z CMC run showed a recurve near Bermuda? Rough for the island, but probably the least scary of all possible scenarios.

#972 Postby **painkillerr** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 11:12 am

x-y-no wrote:
painkillerr wrote:If it slows down (as it seems), it can miss the trough and continue west.

If the GFS is even close to right in building the mid-level ridge over Florida/Cuba/Haiti then that doesn't seem possible. It would have to go SW, which seems unlikely in the extreme.

Let's hope you're right but if it doesn't gain any latitude from this point forward, us folks in the Caribbean are going to begin losing sleep over IGOR. This looks much like EARL all over again!

KWT · #973 Postby **KWT** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 11:13 am

painkillerr wrote:If it slows down (as it seems), it can miss the trough and continue west.

Its probably slowing down because of the upper trough, steering currents are weakening as the system reaches close to the trough axis and the end of the upper ridge and so the system is probably going to lift out pretty soon...don't think it happens as fast as the GFS wants though...

#974 Postby **expat2carib** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 11:19 am

KWT wrote:
painkillerr wrote:If it slows down (as it seems), it can miss the trough and continue west.

Its probably slowing down because of the upper trough, steering currents are weakening as the system reaches close to the trough axis and the end of the upper ridge and so the system is probably going to lift out pretty soon...don't think it happens as fast as the GFS wants though...

I hope you are right KWT as I'm getting nervous by now.

#975 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 11:20 am

Igor 4 days ago!! lol

Gustywind · #976 Postby **Gustywind** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 11:28 am

#977 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 11:29 am

Comparison

#978 Postby **painkillerr** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 11:30 am

KWT wrote:
painkillerr wrote:If it slows down (as it seems), it can miss the trough and continue west.

Its probably slowing down because of the upper trough, steering currents are weakening as the system reaches close to the trough axis and the end of the upper ridge and so the system is probably going to lift out pretty soon...don't think it happens as fast as the GFS wants though...

I'm likely to agree that it won't be that fast either, and the WNW turn won't be as steep. It could bring IGOR too close for comfort to our islands.

#979 Postby **ColinDelia** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 11:37 am

According to the 12z GFS Igor is 977 mb. What is going on here?

Does this 977mb NOT represent the actual central pressure? i.e. Despite displaying the 977 maybe the correct model has been bogussed in but is not displayed?

Does the GFS model not get the correct estimated central pressure bogussed in?

Scorpion · #980 Postby **Scorpion** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 11:40 am

Globals are always off with the pressure.

ATL: IGOR - Ex Hurricane - Discussion

Re: ATL: Hurricane IGOR - Discussion

Re: ATL: Hurricane IGOR - Discussion

Re: ATL: Hurricane IGOR - Discussion

Re: ATL: Hurricane IGOR - Discussion

Re: ATL: Hurricane IGOR - Discussion

Re:

Re: ATL: Hurricane IGOR - Discussion

Re: ATL: Hurricane IGOR - Discussion

Re: ATL: Hurricane IGOR - Discussion

Re: ATL: Hurricane IGOR - Discussion

Re: ATL: Hurricane IGOR - Discussion

Who is online