ATL : INVEST 92L - DISCUSSION

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Gustywind
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Re: ATL : INVEST 92L - DISCUSSION

#981 Postby Gustywind » Thu Jun 17, 2010 9:14 pm

cycloneye wrote:Look how big this complex has turned into. And yes,those -80C cloud tops continue.

Image

At this rate portions of the Windwards could be impacted by this bad weather...even Ste Lucia. Strong tstorms cells embedded in this complex for sure.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 92L - DISCUSSION

#982 Postby frederic79 » Thu Jun 17, 2010 9:17 pm

Makes me wonder how abnormally warm-for-June SST's can alter climotological tendencies for strong waves in a sheared environment. Imagine what we'd be seeing here with this wave in the absence of shear despite the calendar...
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#983 Postby Gustywind » Thu Jun 17, 2010 9:20 pm

:uarrow:
Good post ! Humm i will say unrealistic things could occur, water temps are near 29°C in vicinity of the islands and even more in surface, imagine if we were in August!
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Re: ATL : INVEST 92L - DISCUSSION

#984 Postby hurricaneCW » Thu Jun 17, 2010 9:24 pm

Isn't this all shear induced convection? We've seen waves do this before by blowing up and than getting ripped apart. There is no LLC and nothing will be able to get organized unless the shear drops from those ridiculously high 30-40 knots. I'm sure a pro met can back this up.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 92L - DISCUSSION

#985 Postby Dylan » Thu Jun 17, 2010 9:27 pm

hurricaneCW wrote:Isn't this all shear induced convection? We've seen waves do this before by blowing up and than getting ripped apart. There is no LLC and nothing will be able to get organized unless the shear drops from those ridiculously high 30-40 knots. I'm sure a pro met can back this up.


Wind shear associated with TUTT's don't create CDO-like convective bursts. This is all by 92L.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 92L - DISCUSSION

#986 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Jun 17, 2010 9:28 pm

Dylan wrote:
hurricaneCW wrote:Isn't this all shear induced convection? We've seen waves do this before by blowing up and than getting ripped apart. There is no LLC and nothing will be able to get organized unless the shear drops from those ridiculously high 30-40 knots. I'm sure a pro met can back this up.


Wind shear associated with TUTT's don't create CDO-like convective bursts. This is all by 92L.


Beat me to it, but your exactly right...
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Re: ATL : INVEST 92L - DISCUSSION

#987 Postby Rainband » Thu Jun 17, 2010 9:30 pm

Again WOW. Also look at how it's slowing and still not being sheared?? If this shear has not effects on it imagine when it weakens :lol:
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#988 Postby Gustywind » Thu Jun 17, 2010 9:31 pm

:uarrow:
:eek: yeah :cheesy: Mother Nature and its secrets?!
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Re:

#989 Postby Dylan » Thu Jun 17, 2010 9:33 pm

Gustywind wrote::uarrow:
:eek: yeah :cheesy: Mother Nature and its secrets?!


Your in for some rough weather in about 12 hours.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 92L - DISCUSSION

#990 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Jun 17, 2010 9:34 pm

New image. Hot towers still going strong, starting to flatten a touch on the SW side

Image
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#991 Postby Gustywind » Thu Jun 17, 2010 9:36 pm

This afternoon 2PM
Image
Tonight 10PM
Image
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Re: ATL : INVEST 92L - DISCUSSION

#992 Postby Rainband » Thu Jun 17, 2010 9:37 pm

Ivanhater wrote:New image. Hot towers still going strong, starting to flatten a touch on the SW side

Image
well maybe the shear heard me :lol: :lol: :lol:
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Re: ATL : INVEST 92L - DISCUSSION

#993 Postby Rainband » Thu Jun 17, 2010 9:38 pm

code red 11pm or 12am :lol:
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Re: Re:

#994 Postby Gustywind » Thu Jun 17, 2010 9:40 pm

Dylan wrote:
Gustywind wrote::uarrow:
:eek: yeah :cheesy: Mother Nature and its secrets?!


Your in for some rough weather in about 12 hours.

Absolutely...unhopefully :oops: Let's hope that things will stay as a very strong twave but no more that could be problematic for us in the islands...
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Re: ATL : INVEST 92L - DISCUSSION

#995 Postby Recurve » Thu Jun 17, 2010 9:40 pm

Convection is very impressive, what do you all think is the cause -- very favorable moisture profile and lapse rates, and shear helping inflow? or venting? At least not tearing the convection apart.
It may have displaced the concentrated convection from the lowest pressure near the surface, but I'm surprised to not see the elongation I'd expect.
Visible will be interesting tomorrow.
Hoping for the best for the islands directly impacted, could be some nasty flooding and wind.
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#996 Postby RL3AO » Thu Jun 17, 2010 9:41 pm

You can see the stronger shear over the NE Caribbean on water vapor. Its not going to develop in the next few days. Maybe if it gets near the Bahamas.
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Re:

#997 Postby Rainband » Thu Jun 17, 2010 9:43 pm

RL3AO wrote:You can see the stronger shear over the NE Caribbean on water vapor. Its not going to develop in the next few days. Maybe if it gets near the Bahamas.
It sure is gving it the college try though
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#998 Postby floridasun78 » Thu Jun 17, 2010 9:49 pm

will nhc make this invest again tonight or wait untill friday afternoon?
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#999 Postby Gustywind » Thu Jun 17, 2010 9:55 pm

From a friend of Antigua just north of Guadeloupe:
flare up By eli fuller <elifuller at hotmail.com>
Date: Fri, 18 Jun 2010 02:51:11 +0000

Wow! Satellite and radar show a crazy looking Tropical wave about to move into the chain. I'm house sitting tonight on d north side and didn't do anything extra on the boats. Hope the squalls don't rattle my chain tonight too much.
all normal at this hour tho.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 92L - DISCUSSION

#1000 Postby hockeytim19 » Thu Jun 17, 2010 9:57 pm

Rainband wrote:code red 11pm or 12am :lol:



If anything, it would be 2AM... TWOs come out at 8 and 2... AM and PM
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