W Australia : EX-TROPICAL CYCLONE MAGDA

[Crostorm]

Tropical Cyclone Three Day Outlook for the Western Region

IDW10800
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone three-day outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 1:59pm WST on Tuesday the 19th of January 2010
Valid until midnight WST Friday


Existing Cyclones in the Western region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:
A tropical low, 1004hPa, was located south of Timor near 11.5S 123.0E at noon
WST Tuesday. It is expected to develop further in the next few days as it moves
on a general southeast track towards the Kimberley coast. It may reach tropical
cyclone intensity as early as Wednesday night but more likely on Thursday. The
system is likely to be in the vicinity of 125E later on Thursday and Friday.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region:
Wednesday :Moderate
Thursday :High
Friday :High

[Crostorm]

IDW24000
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 5:03 pm WST on Tuesday 19 January 2010
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Tropical Low was located at 2 pm WST near 11.6S 123.0E, that is 495 km
northwest of Kalumburu and moving south at 4 kilometres per hour.
The low is expected to gradually develop and reach cyclone intensity on
Wednesday or Thursday as it moves towards the Kimberley coast. However, the
system is not expected to affect the WA coast in the next 48 hours.
The next Information Bulletin will be issued at 9 pm WST.

[Crostorm]

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0921 UTC 19/01/2010
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 06U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 11.6S
Longitude: 123.0E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: south [180 deg]
Speed of Movement: 2 knots [4 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1002 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
Storm Depth: Medium
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 19/1800: 12.0S 122.8E: 045 [085]: 025 [045]: 1002
+24: 20/0600: 12.3S 122.8E: 065 [120]: 040 [075]: 994
+36: 20/1800: 12.8S 123.2E: 085 [155]: 045 [085]: 992
+48: 21/0600: 13.2S 124.0E: 105 [195]: 050 [095]: 989
+60: 21/1800: 13.5S 124.7E: 135 [250]: 055 [100]: 985
+72: 22/0600: 14.0S 125.2E: 170 [315]: 060 [110]: 981
REMARKS:
The low has shown signs of developing in the last 24 hours having convection
being sustained near the centre through the day [diurnal minimum] even though
there is only a small region of convection. Dvorak classification is difficult,
although convection is tightly wrapped on the western side on microwave imagery
[85GHz TMI at 0624UC] suggests that a 0.3-0.4 wrap is possible on the
conventional IR image. The DT of 2.0 is matched by the MET based on a 1.0
development rate, although PAT could be slightly lower. FT/CI is hence marginal
2.0.

The system is in a low shear environment and over warm water [SST>30C] which
should persist in the next few days allowing the system to intensify further.
Motion should be slow through T+36h then track to the southeast towards teh
Kimberley coast under the influence of a short-wave trough over WA.

Being a small circulation there is the risk that gales may develop faster than
some models indicate, hence TC intensity is possible within 24 hours.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 19/1300 UTC by Perth TCWC.

[Crostorm]

[Crostorm]

IDW24000
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 8:39 pm WST on Tuesday 19 January 2010
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Tropical Low was located at 8 pm WST near 11.8S 122.9E, that is 490 km
northwest of Kalumburu and moving south at 4 kilometres per hour.
The low is expected to gradually develop and reach cyclone intensity on
Wednesday or Thursday as it moves towards the Kimberley coast. However, the
system is not expected to affect the WA coast in the next 48 hours.
The next Information Bulletin will be issued at 3 am WST.

[Crostorm]

[HURAKAN]

19/1430 UTC 12.2S 122.6E T1.5/1.5 94S -- Southeast Indian

25 knots

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.5S
122.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.6S 121.8E, APPROXIMATELY 500 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING LLCC WITH DEEP CONVECTION
PERSISTING OVER THE AREA. A 191315Z ASCAT PASS INDICATES THAT WINDS
EQUATORWARD OF THE SYSTEM ARE AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH SOME 30 KNOT
WINDS IDENTIFIED TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC. A 191131Z SSMIS PASS
INDICATES SOME WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP, WITH
THE DEEPEST CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE LLCC IS LOCATED UNDER A STR AXIS WHICH IS PROVIDING GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. VWS IS CURRENTLY AT A LOW LEVEL OVER THE AREA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.

[HURAKAN]

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
AT 1831UTC 19 JANUARY 2010

GALE WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1800 UTC a Tropical Low was centred within 45 nautical miles of
latitude twelve decimal zero south (12.0S)
longitude one hundred and twenty two decimal eight east (122.8E)
Recent movement : south southwest at 2 knots
Maximum winds : 25 knots
Central pressure: 1002 hPa
The low may develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 12 to 24 hours.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 25 knots near the centre increasing to 45 knots by 1800 UTC 20
January.
Winds increasing to 30/40 knots after 0600UTC 20 January within 60 nautical
miles of centre, very rough seas and low to moderate swell.
Forecast positions
At 0600 UTC 20 January: Within 45 nautical miles of 12.4 south 122.8 east
Central pressure 998 hPa.
Winds to 30 knots near centre.
At 1800 UTC 20 January: Within 50 nautical miles of 12.8 south 123.2 east
Central pressure 992 hPa.
Winds to 45 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite to SAC 1241 through Land Earth Station Perth 312.

Next warning will be issued by 0100 UTC 20 January 2010.

WEATHER PERTH

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[P.K.]

Latest technical bulletin on 06U. Can someone add 06U into the title?

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1832 UTC 19/01/2010
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 06U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 12.0S
Longitude: 122.8E
Location Accuracy: within 45 nm [85 km]
Movement Towards: south southwest [206 deg]
Speed of Movement: 2 knots [4 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1002 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
Storm Depth: Medium
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 20/0600: 12.4S 122.8E: 045 [085]: 030 [055]: 998
+24: 20/1800: 12.8S 123.2E: 050 [095]: 045 [085]: 992
+36: 21/0600: 13.2S 123.9E: 070 [130]: 050 [095]: 989
+48: 21/1800: 13.5S 124.7E: 090 [165]: 055 [100]: 985
+60: 22/0600: 14.1S 125.2E: 125 [230]: 060 [110]: 981
+72: 22/1800: 14.6S 125.1E: 165 [305]: 060 [110]: 981
REMARKS:
The low has shown signs of developing in the last 24 hours having convection
being sustained near the centre through the day. Dvorak classification is
difficult, with a 0.3-0.4 wrap estimated on the IR images. FT/CI is 2.0.

The system is in a low shear environment and over warm water [SST>30C] which
should persist in the next few days allowing the system to intensify further.
Motion should be slow through T+36h then track to the southeast towards the
Kimberley coast under the influence of a short-wave trough over WA.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 20/0100 UTC by Perth TCWC.

[Crostorm]

IDW24100
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
Issued at 9:05 am WST on Wednesday, 20 January 2010
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for a developing tropical low for coastal
areas from Wyndham to Cockatoo Island.

At 8:00 am WST a Tropical Low was estimated to be
530 kilometres northwest of Mitchell Plateau and
510 kilometres north northwest of Cockatoo Island and
moving south at 4 kilometres per hour towards the coast.

The low is expected to continue to develop and reach cyclone intensity later
today as it begins to move towards the Kimberley coast. Gales are not expected
on the Kimberley coast in the next 24 hours but may develop later on Thursday.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present.
Coastal communities in the Kimberley should listen for the next advice.

Details of Tropical Low at 8:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 11.9 degrees South 121.8 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south at 4 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 998 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 3:00 pm WST Wednesday 20 January.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210


A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

[HURAKAN]

WTXS21 PGTW 192100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
080 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.6S 122.1E TO 15.7S 123.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 191730Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.9S 122.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.6S
121.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.9S 122.3E, APPROXIMATELY 500 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING LLCC WITH DEEP CONVECTION
PERSISTING OVER THE AREA. A 191315Z ASCAT PASS INDICATES THAT WINDS
EQUATORWARD OF THE SYSTEM ARE AROUND 25 KNOTS WITH SOME 30 KNOT
WINDS IDENTIFIED TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC. A 191751Z AMSU-B PASS
INDICATES SOME WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP, WITH
THE DEEPEST CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE LLCC IS LOCATED UNDER A STR AXIS WHICH IS PROVIDING
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS CURRENTLY AT A LOW
LEVEL OVER THE AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
202100Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0125 UTC 20/01/2010
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 06U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 11.9S
Longitude: 121.8E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: south [180 deg]
Speed of Movement: 2 knots [4 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 998 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 20/1200: 12.4S 121.8E: 060 [110]: 040 [075]: 994
+24: 21/0000: 12.8S 122.6E: 090 [165]: 050 [095]: 989
+36: 21/1200: 13.4S 123.5E: 120 [225]: 060 [110]: 982
+48: 22/0000: 13.9S 124.3E: 155 [285]: 080 [150]: 965
+60: 22/1200: 14.5S 124.8E: 200 [375]: 085 [155]: 960
+72: 23/0000: 14.8S 124.8E: 250 [465]: 085 [155]: 959
REMARKS:
The low has shown signs of developing in the last 24 hours with increasing
curvature evident in the deep convection recent imagery. Recent images allow a
curved band analysis with a wrap of 0.5-0.6. MET is 2.5 based on trend of D and
FT/CI is set to 2.5.

The low is developing as a small system in a low shear environment over warm
water [SST>30C] which should persist over the next few days allowing the system
to intensify further. Given the small size and the favourable environmental
conditions rapid development is possible. It is likely to reach TC intensity
later today and could become a Severe TC [hurricane force winds] before reaching
the coast.

Motion should be slow through T+12h then it should begin to track southeast
towards the Kimberley coast, initially under the influence of under the
influence of strong monsoon westerlies to the north of the system and weak flow
to the south. In the longer term the system is likely to slow as it approaches
the coast and then track to the southwest under the influence of an anticyclone
strengthening to the southeast as midlatitude troughs relax. Some
models/ensemble runs provide an alternate scenario that involves a weaker system
translating on a more eastwards track, staying north of the Kimberley coast and
tracking towards the Top End. The official forecast track is based on a
consensus of model runs that do not include this scenario but the track
uncertainty takes this scenario into account.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 20/0700 UTC by Perth TCWC.

[atomic7732]

I think this system may become something, maybe a category 3 (AUS) cyclone. I'm starting to have second thoughts now. 05U didn't become anything, even though they predicted a cat 2 cyclone. 06U doesn't seem that organized yet, but rapid intensifications have happened, alot of times, so who knows?

Edit: I take that back. It's gonna be a cat 3 cyclone!

[Crostorm]

IDW24100
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 3
Issued at 8:50 pm WST on Wednesday, 20 January 2010
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WARNING has been declared for a developing tropical low for coastal
areas from Kalumburu to Cockatoo Island.

A Cyclone WATCH is now current for coastal areas from Wyndham to Kalumburu,
Cockatoo Island to Beagle Bay and adjacent inland parts of the warning area.

At 8:00 pm WST a Tropical Low was estimated to be
420 kilometres northwest of Kuri Bay and
430 kilometres north northwest of Cockatoo Island and
moving south southeast at 6 kilometres per hour towards the coast.

The low is expected to continue to develop and reach cyclone intensity during
Thursday morning as it moves towards the Kimberley coast. Gales with gusts to
100 kilometres per hour may develop in coastal areas between Kalumburu and
Cockatoo Island during Thursday evening as the system approaches the Kimberley
coast. Gales may extend as far east as Wyndham and as far west as Beagle Bay
during Friday depending on the movement of the system.

There is a significant risk that by Friday evening the system will have
intensified to a Severe Tropical Cyclone and will be close to the Kimberley
coast.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present.
Coastal communities in the Kimberley between Wyndham and Beagle Bay should
listen for the next advice.

Details of Tropical Low at 8:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 12.5 degrees South 122.2 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south southeast at 6 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 998 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 12:00 am WST Thursday 21 January.

Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210


A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

[Crostorm]

[Crostorm]

TXXS24 KNES 200955


A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (94S)

B. 20/0830Z

C. 12.2S

D. 122.0E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T2.5/2.5/D2.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/TMI

H. REMARKS...BANDING MEASURES 4/10 FOR DT OF 2.5. MET IS 1.5. PT IS
2.0. FT BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

20/0528Z 12.2S 122.0E TMI


...MS