SIO : SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 (11S)

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THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.6S
56.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.1S 58.1E, APPROXIMATELY 390 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
CONVECTION FLARING TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT UNDER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.

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THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.1S
58.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.6S 58.2E, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
262126Z AMSR-E MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATE CONSOLIDATION WITH INCREASED
CONVECTION AND CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM
IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT UNDER AN ANTICYCLONE WITH WEAK
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.

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WTXS21 PGTW 270930
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
125 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.4S 59.4E TO 22.2S 60.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 270600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 18.0S 59.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.6S
58.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.0S 59.6E, APPROXIMATELY 175 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OF DEEP CONVECTION ABOUT A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 270211Z WINDSAT
PASS SHOWS A WEAK CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN BROADER TURNING, WITH
STRONGER CONVERGENT FLOW TO THE NORTH. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM PGTW INDICATE A 35 KNOT LLCC, THOUGH WINDSAT AND LOWER
FREQUENCY MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGEST THE LLCC IS WEAKER AND STILL
CONSOLIDATING WITHIN THE BROADER TROUGH. AN ANTICYCLONE ALOFT IS
PROVIDING LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK RADIAL OUTFLOW. IN
ADDITION, OUTFLOW IS BEING ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
UPSTREAM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
280930Z.//
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Now Tropical cyclone 11

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WTXS31 PGTW 272100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/270921Z JAN 10//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 19.7S 61.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S 61.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 21.6S 61.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 23.9S 61.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 26.3S 61.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 28.8S 62.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 32.9S 65.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 38.8S 73.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
272100Z POSITION NEAR 20.2S 61.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
CONVECTION HAS CONSOLIDATED OVER A WELL ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCU-
LATION CENTER (LLCC). A RECENT 271713Z ASCAT PASS INDICATED WINDS IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT WERE AT LEAST 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITH A FEW
40 KNOT WIND BARBS PRESENT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS IS FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
TC 11S PROVIDING GOOD EASTWARD OUTFLOW, IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED OVER TC 11S ENHANCING RADIAL OUTFLOW.
A TRANSITORY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST OF TC 11S IS CUR-
RENTLY HELPING THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AS WELL, ALLOWING FOR THE
RECENT INCREASE IN CENTRAL CONVECTION. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE TEMPO-
RARY AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVER TC 11S AND HINDERS THE OUTFLOW PATTERN.
THIS FORECAST HAS INTENSITY PEAKING BETWEEN TAU 36 AND 48 AS
INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DECREASED OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TRANSITORY TROUGH PERSISTS. THE TRACK IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY TAU 24 AS A MID-LEVEL STR EXTENSION THAT IS TO THE
SOUTH OF TC 11S SLOWLY WEAKENS IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF TC 11S AROUND TAU TAU
48, CAUSING FURTHER WEAKENING IN THE STR, AND HELPING TO TURN THE
SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHEAST. EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO
START AROUND TAU 72 WITH COMPLETION BY TAU 96 AS TC 11S IS ABSORBED
INTO THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF
A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 270921Z JAN 10 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTXS21 PGTW 270930) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS
10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z AND 282100Z.//
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ZCZC 279
WTIO30 FMEE 271822
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/10/20092010
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 10
2.A POSITION 2010/01/27 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.5S / 59.9E
(TWENTY DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY NINE DECIMAL NINE
DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 10 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1003 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/01/28 06 UTC: 22.2S/60.3E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2010/01/28 18 UTC: 24.2S/60.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
36H: 2010/01/29 06 UTC: 25.9S/60.5E, MAX WIND=035KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
48H: 2010/01/29 18 UTC: 28.0S/61.3E, MAX WIND=035KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2010/01/30 06 UTC: 30.3S/62.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2010/01/30 18 UTC: 32.8S/65.1E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0-
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS BAD DEFINED AND THE FIX IS
EXTRAPOLATED
THANKS TO AMSU 27/1451Z.
DEEP CONVECTION MORE SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON, SEEMS TO DEVELOPP.
STRONG WINDS (25KT VERY LOCALLY 30KT) EXIST MAINLY IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
PRESSURES.
OCEANIC HEAT POTENTIAL IS FAVOURABLE NORTH OF 24S AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL
OUTFLOW CHANNEL EXISTS POLEWARD WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVELS
TROUGH
BUT LOW LEVEL INFLOWS ARE EXPECTED REGULARELY WEAKEN.
SYSTEM IS THEREFORE NOT FORECASTED TO DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY.
ON AND AFTER TAU24, VERTICAL WINDHSEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND
SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO BECOME UNFAVOURABLE.
NWP MODEL ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.
LA REUNION AND MAURITIUS ISLANDS SHOULD STAY FAR AWAY FROM THE MORE
INTENSE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EAST OF THE SYSTEM WHICH SHOULD CONCERN
RODRIGUES ISLAND WITHIN THE NEXT 3 DAYS.=
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ZCZC 515
WTIO30 FMEE 281209
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 8/10/20092010
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 10
2.A POSITION 2010/01/28 AT 1200 UTC :
21.8S / 59.3E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY NINE DECIMAL THREE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 6 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /W 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1001 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SO: NO:
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1500
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/01/29 00 UTC: 23.2S/59.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2010/01/29 12 UTC: 25.4S/60.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
36H: 2010/01/30 00 UTC: 27.8S/60.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
48H: 2010/01/30 12 UTC: 30.3S/62.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2010/01/31 00 UTC: 33.0S/64.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2010/01/31 12 UTC: 36.5S/67.0E DISSIPATED.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=1.5
LLCC REMAINS FULLY EXPOSED WEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY,
WHICH
GRADUALLY DISORGANIZES.
STRONG WINDS (30KT) EXIST MAINLY IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO
THE
GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.
ENVIRONMENT IS NEUTRAL; OCEANIC HEAT POTENTIAL IS FAVOURABLE TILL 25S
(UP
TO 12/24H) BUT LOW LEVEL INFLOWS ARE WEAK TO MODERATE. AT UPPER
LEVELS
DIVERGENCE IS WEAKENING AND WINDSHEAR IS INCREASING. THE SYSTEM IS
THEREFORE NOT FORECAST TO DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY BEFORE INITIATING ITS
TROPICAL TRANSITION
.
THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
MID-TROPOSPHERE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTRED IN THE SOUTH-EAST.
BEYOND
24H, AS THIS STR SHIFTS TOWARDS THE EAST, THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS.
NWP MODEL ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.
LA REUNION AND MAURITIUS ISLANDS SHOULD STAY FAR AWAY FROM THE
HEAVIEST
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LOCATED EAST OF 60E, WHICH SHOULD STILL CONCERN
RODRIGUES ISLAND FOR THE NEXT 36/48 DAYS.=
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WTXS31 PGTW 280900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z --- NEAR 21.2S 58.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 21.2S 58.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 23.1S 59.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 25.2S 59.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 27.9S 60.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 31.2S 62.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 37.7S 67.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 21.7S 58.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATLEY 180 NM
EAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WEST OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION. WHILE THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED NEAR THE UPPER-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND HAS
GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH EVEN BETTER POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH TRANSITING TO THE EAST, SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SITUATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF 11S IS HAMPERING
CONVECTION OVER THE SYSTEM. OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT AND ENABLE 11S TO RE-DEVELOP CENTRAL
CONVECTION AND REACH MAXIMUM INTENSITY. ADDITIONALLY, THE SYSTEM
WILL TRACK OVER FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 36
TO 48 HOURS. BY TAU 48, 11S WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND BY TAU 72, 11S WILL
COMPLETE TRANSITION INTO A WEAK BAROCLINIC SYSTEM. THIS FORECAST IS
IN LINE WITH THE JTWC CONSENSUS AS WELL AS THE EUROPEAN SOLUTIONS
OFFERED BY THE UKMO AND ECMWF. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
280600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z AND 290900Z.//
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ZCZC 444
WTIO30 FMEE 281811
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 9/10/20092010
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 10
2.A POSITION 2010/01/28 AT 1800 UTC :
22.7S / 59.3E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY NINE DECIMAL THREE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 10 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /S 0.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SO: NO:
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/01/29 06 UTC: 24.5S/59.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2010/01/29 18 UTC: 26.6S/60.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
36H: 2010/01/30 06 UTC: 29.1S/61.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
48H: 2010/01/30 18 UTC: 31.6S/63.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2010/01/31 06 UTC: 34.8S/65.9E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING.
72H: 2010/01/31 18 UTC: 38.3S/66.3E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0-
DEEP CONVCETIVE ACTIVITY EXISTS AGAIN CLOSER FROM THE CENTER BUT LLCC
REMAINS FULLY EXPOSED WEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
STRONG WINDS (30KT) EXIST MAINLY IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO
THE
GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.
ENVIRONMENT IS NEUTRAL; OCEANIC HEAT POTENTIAL IS FAVOURABLE TILL 25S
(UP
TO 12/24H) BUT LOW LEVEL INFLOWS ARE WEAK TO MODERATE. AT UPPER
LEVELS
DIVERGENCE IS WEAKENING AND WINDSHEAR IS INCREASING. THE SYSTEM IS
THEREFORE NOT FORECAST TO DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY BEFORE INITIATING ITS
TROPICAL TRANSITION
.
THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
MID-TROPOSPHERE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTRED IN THE SOUTH-EAST, AS
THIS STR SHIFTS TOWARDS THE EAST, THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS.
NWP MODEL ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.
LA REUNION AND MAURITIUS ISLANDS SHOULD STAY FAR AWAY FROM THE
HEAVIEST
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LOCATED EAST OF 60E, WHICH SHOULD STILL CONCERN
RODRIGUES ISLAND FOR THE NEXT 36/48 DAYS.=
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