SPO : TROPICAL CYCLONE OLI 07F (12P)

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 30/0855 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 07F [1000HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 11.4S 178.8E AT
300600UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON EIR AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION AND PERIPHIRAL OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELCIUS.

ORGANISATION HAS NOT INCREASED IN THE LAST 12 HOURS. CONVECTION
REMAINS PERSISTENT FOR THE LAST 12 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES TO THE SOUTH OF
AN UPPER RIDGE AND CENTRE IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. AN UPPER
TROUGH LIES TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS MORE
LOW-MID LEVEL.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND ARE MOVING IT EASTWARDS
AT 05 KNOTS WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

[HURAKAN]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.9S 176.5E,
APPROXIMATELY 495 NM NORTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI. RECENT ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF CONVECTION ORGANIZING
BETWEEN AMERICAN SAMOA AND FIJI. FUNAFUTI INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
(NGFU), TUVALU, LOCATED WITHIN THE OUTER REACHES OF THE DISTURBANCE,
IS REPORTING SUSTAINED WEST-SOUTHWESTERLIES AT 12 KNOTS, GUSTING TO
21 KNOTS. SEA LEVEL PRESSURE HAS ALSO DROPPED 01 MB OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS AND IS CURRENTLY AT 1004 MB. A PARTIAL 300729Z SSMIS MICROWAVE
PASS SHOWS CURVED INFLOW INTO WHAT MAY BE A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER; HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME THE CIRCULATION APPEARS TO
BE PRIMARILY MID-LEVEL. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS MODERATE. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS POOR.

[HURAKAN]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.9S 176.5W
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.7S 174.5W, APPROXIMATELY 300 NM NORTHWEST
OF PAGO PAGO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 301839Z 37
GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS MULTIPLE CURVED BANDS BEGINNING TO
WRAP INTO THE WESTERN QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. PAGO PAGO INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT (NSTU) IS REPORTING A SLP OF 1002 MB WITH A 24 HOUR PRESSURE
FALL OF 1.5 MB. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS UNDER MODERATE
NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
FAIR.

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 31/0147 UTC 2010 UTC.

*** CORRECTION TO TD07F LONGITUDE POSITION ***

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07F [999HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 11.0S 175.5W AT
302100UTC MOVING EAST. POSITION POOR BASED ON IR/VIS IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION, PERIPHIRAL OBSERVATIONS AND LATEST SSMIS PASS. SST AROUND
30 DEGREES CELCIUS.

TD07F LIES ALONG A MONSOONAL TROUGH AND TO THE SOUTH OF AN UPPER
RIDGE AND CENTRE IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. PULSATING
CONVECTION HAS REMAIN PERSISTENT IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS MORE LOW-MID LEVEL. AN UPPER TROUGH LIES TO THE WEST
OF THE SYSTEM. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN A GENERAL
SOUTHEAST DIRECTION.

GLOBAL MODELS [UK, EC] HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND ARE MOVING IT
SOUTHEASTWARDS AT 05 KNOTS WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MODERATE.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Chacor]

Surely the thread title should be TD 7F?

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 31/0910 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07F [997HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 11.0S 172.0W AT
310600UTC MOVING EAST AT 10 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED ON IR IMAGERY
WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHIRAL OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES
CELCIUS.

TD07F LIES ALONG A MONSOONAL TROUGH AND TO THE SOUTH OF AN UPPER
RIDGE AND CENTRE IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CONVECTION HAS
SLIGHTLY INCREASED IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS FROM
SURFACE TO 500HPA. DEEP MEAN LAYER NORTHWESTERLY WIND IS EXPECTED TO
STEER THE SYSTEM SOUTHEASTWARDS. AN UPPER TROUGH LIES TO THE WEST OF
THE SYSTEM.

GLOBAL MODELS [UK, EC] HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND ARE MOVING IT
SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MODERATE.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

[HURAKAN]

Much better organized

[HURAKAN]

WTPS21 PGTW 311500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
245 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.3S 171.1W TO 12.2S 163.1W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 311200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.7S 170.3W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.0S 173.6W, IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 10.7S 170.3W, APPROXIMATELY 220 NM NORTH OF PAGO PAGO.
AS OF 1258Z SEA LEVEL PRESSURE HAS DROPPED TO 999.8 MB AT PAGO PAGO,
REPRESENTING A 1.7 MB DEPARTURE FROM 24 HOURS AGO. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND PHFO HAVE INCREASED TO A 2.0 DATA-T OR 30
KNOTS. MICROWAVE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST 06 TO 12 HOURS HAS CONTINUED
TO INDICATE A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO DEEPENING AND EXPANDING CENTRAL CONVECTION.
BANDING FEATURES, PARTICULARLY IN THE LOWER LEVELS, HAVE ALSO
CONTINUED TO MATURE AS THEY FEED INTO THE LLCC. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS HAS ALSO MOVED CLOSER TO THE SYSTEM, RELAXING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO
30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
011500Z.//
NNNN

[Crostorm]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A2 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 01/0158 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07F [995HPA] CENTRE NEAR 11.4S 167.0W AT 010000
UTC MOVING EAST AT 18 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT EIR/VIS
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. MAXIMUM
10-MINUTE AVERAGE SUSTAINED WINDS CLOSE TO CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO
30 KNOTS POSSIBLY INCREASNG TO 35 KNOTS WITH 60 TO 120 NAUTICAL MILES
OF CENTRE IN SECTORS FROM NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

DEEP CONVECTION ERUPTING ALONG PRIMARY BAND TO SOUTH AND COOLING.
DEVELOPING BAND TO NORTH SPIRALLING INTO SOUTH BAND AND BEGINNING TO
WRAP AOUND LLCC. DEEP CONVECTION TO NORTH, ASSOCIATED WITH MONSOON
TROUGH, REMAINS DETACHED FROM LLCC, DUE SHEAR. OUTFLOW DEVELOPING TO
EAST AND NORTH AND RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. SYSTEM LOCATED UNDER
DIFLUENT REGION AT 250HPA. CIMSS INDICATE INCREASING SHEAR TO THE
EAST OF TRACK. SST AROUND 30C. DVORAK BASED ON WRAP OF 0.5 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDING DT2.5. PT=2.5 AND MET=2.5. FT BASED ON PT, THUS
T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24 HRS. DEPRESSION STEERED EAST BY LOW TO MID-LEVEL
WEST TO NORTHWEST MONSOON FLOW. SOME GLOBAL MODELS HAVE CAPTURED THE
SYSTEM AND GENERALLY AGREE ON EASTWARD TRACK BEFORE A SOUTHEAST TURN
IN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS.
POTENTIAL FOR 07F TO DEVELOP INTO A CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
MODERATE TO HIGH.


THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD 07F WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 010830 UTC OR EARLIER.

[HurricaneBill]

The next name on the list is "Oli".

[HURAKAN]

WTPS31 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 11.1S 166.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.1S 166.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 11.3S 163.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 11.8S 161.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 12.4S 159.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 13.2S 157.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 16.3S 153.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 20.3S 150.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 25.3S 147.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 11.1S 166.1W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM NORTHEAST
OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
CONSOLIDATION AROUND A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
010058Z AMSU IMAGE SHOWS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL
DEFINED LLCC. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 30
TO 45 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND PHFO, AND IS SUPPORTED BY A 312009Z
ASCAT PASS SHOWING 35 KNOT WINDS IN THE NORTHERN QUADRANT. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
EASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE
WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEAST AND WILL INTENSIFY OVER FAVORABLE
SST (28 TO 30C) AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC). TC 12P SHOULD CONTINUE
TRACKING EASTWARD UNTIL TAU 48, THEN SLOW SLIGHTLY AS IT TURNS
SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY BY 20 KNOTS PER DAY UNTIL TAU
72, AT WHICH POINT THE SYSTEM WILL ENCOUNTER HIGH WESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND UNFAVORABLE SST AND OHC CONDITIONS. AT TAU 72 THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE STEERING
FLOW BETWEEN THE STR AND A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH AND BEGIN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION NEAR TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS LIMITED
(NOGAPS, GFDN, WBAR, AND ECMWF), BUT IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS
FORECAST. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN
311500Z JAN 10 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 311500).
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 011500Z AND 020300Z.//
NNNN

[Sheronz]

Hello,
I'm french and i live in Tahiti, near this TD
Crostorm: I wanted to know where had you obtained these informations ?

I keep myself informed about the activity of this TD since yesterday with this website, there are many imagery options but no textual comments.
Thks

[HURAKAN]

Hello,
I'm french and i live in Tahiti, near this TD
Crostorm: I wanted to know where had you obtained these informations ?

I keep myself informed about the activity of this TD since yesterday with this website, there are many imagery options but no textual comments.
Thks

Welcome to Storm2k. Crostorm found that information in this website : http://www.met.gov.fj/advisories.html

[Sheronz]

Ok thks you

[Sheronz]

This Tropical Depression is now a Tropical Storm.

[HURAKAN]

GALE WARNING 005 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 01/1041 UTC 2010 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone OLI 07F centre [995hPa] category 1 was located near
12 decimal 6 South 163 decimal 9 West at 010900 UTC.
Position poor.
Repeat position 12.6S 163.9W at 010900 UTC.
Cyclone moving east-southeast at 18 knots.
Expect sustained winds of 35 knots close to the centre.
Expect winds over 33 knots within 120 nautical miles of centre in the
sectors from north through southeast to southwest and within 60 miles
of centre elsewhere.

Forecast position near 13.6S 161.3W at 012100 UTC
and near 14.8S 159.1W at 020900 UTC

All vessels within 300 nautical miles of centre are requested to send
reports every three hours to RSMC NADI. VOS reporting ships use
normal channels. Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc
at met dot gov dot fj

This warning cancels and replaces warning 003.

[HURAKAN]

WTPS31 PGTW 011500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (OLI) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (OLI) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 13.2S 163.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2S 163.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 14.4S 161.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 15.3S 159.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 16.2S 158.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 17.3S 156.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 18.8S 155.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 20.8S 154.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 23.4S 153.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
011500Z POSITION NEAR 13.5S 162.9W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (OLI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 540 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF RAROTONGA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON FIXES FROM PGTW
AND PHFO, AS WELL AS A 010842Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW AND PHFO RANGING FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE
FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS, THEN SLOW AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
EAST PICKS UP THE SYSTEM AND TRACKS IT INCREASINGLY POLEWARD. ALL
THE WHILE THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY INTENSIFY UNDER
IMPROVED UPPER LEVEL VENTING AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL BELOW 26 DEGREES CELSIUS UNTIL
NEAR TAU 96, AROUND THE SAME TIME THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO ELEVATE AS
THE SYSTEM GAINS LATITUDE. BOTH OF THESE FACTORS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
SLOW WEAKENING BEYOND TAU 72. THIS FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED SOUTH
OF THE LAST FORECAST IN RESPONSE TO THE CYCLONE TRENDING
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE TRACK HAS ALSO BEEN
SLOWED, ESPECIALLY IN THE LATER TAUS, IN LINE WITH A SLOWER MODEL
CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 020300Z AND 021500Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A5 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 01/1454 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE OLI 07F [990HPA] CENTRE NEAR 12.7S 163.5W AT 011200
UTC MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT 15 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT
IR/EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE SUSTAINED WINDS CLOSE TO CENTRE ESTIMATED
40 KNOTS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF
CENTRE IN THE SECTORS FROM NORTH THROUGH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AND
WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED IN THE LAST 6 HOURS WITH PULSATING
CONVECTION OVER LLCC. CONVECTION TO THE NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH MONSOON
TROUGH REMAINS DETACHED FROM LLCC BUT SLOWLY CURVING INTO IT. OUTFLOW
GOOD TO NORTH AND SOUTH BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. SYSTEM LOCATED
UNDER 250HPA DIFFLUENT REGION IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. NORTHWEST
MONSOON SURGE TO THE NORTH. AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE UPPER TROUGH
FROM THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM IN THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS. SST AROUND 30C. DVORAK BASED ON WRAP OF 0.6 ON LOG 10
SPIRAL YIELDING DT3.0 PT=3.0 AND MET=3.05. FT BASED ON DT, THUS
T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24 HRS. CYCLONE OLI STEERED EAST SOUTHEAST BY WEST
NORTHWEST DEEP LAYER MEAN WINDS. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE CAPTURED THE
SYSTEM AND GENERALLY AGREE ON SOUTHEAST TRACK AND DEEPENS IT.

FORECASTS:
12HRS VALID AT 010000 UTC NEAR 13.1S 161.6W MOV ESE 10KT WITH 45KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 021200 UCT NEAR 13.7S 159.6W MOV SSE 08KT WITH 45KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 022100 UTC NEAR 15.0S 158.3W MOV SE 07KT WITH 45KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 030900 UTC NEAR 16.5S 158.0W MOV ESE 08KT WITH 45KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.


THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC OLI WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 012030 UTC OR EARLIER.