MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL : OVERLAND DEPRESSION FAMI (13S)

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Latest

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Accuweather's take

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Latest

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AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 19.6S 42.3E,
APPROXIMATELY 270 NM WEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. RECENT
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST WRAPPING CYCLONICALLY BENEATH
BUDDING CENTRAL CONVECTION. A 010618Z ASCAT CONFIRMS STRONG
NORTHWESTERLIES AND SOUTHEASTERLIES WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING 10
TO 15 KNOT CIRCULATION WITHIN THE BROADER TROUGH. OUTFLOW IS
FAVORABLE ON BOTH THE EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD SIDES OF THE
DISTURBANCE AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LOW TO MODERATE GIVEN THE
CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS POOR.

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Looks to be becoming better organized

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01/2030 UTC 20.1S 42.6E T1.5/1.5 92S -- Southwest Indian

25 knots

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Latest

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ZCZC 050
WTIO30 FMEE 011837
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/11/20092010
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 11
2.A POSITION 2010/02/01 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.3S / 42.8E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL EIGHT
DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : NORTH-EAST 4 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1001 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/02/02 06 UTC: 19.6S/43.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
24H: 2010/02/02 18 UTC: 20.4S/46.2E OVERLAND.
36H: 2010/02/03 06 UTC: 21.1S/49.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
48H: 2010/02/03 18 UTC: 21.4S/52.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
60H: 2010/02/04 06 UTC: 21.8S/54.6E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
72H: 2010/02/04 18 UTC: 23.6S/57.2E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0-.
ENVIRONNEMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLES TO INTENSIFICATION, WITH A
WEAKENING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR , AS THE MINIMUM TRACK OVER VERY
FAVOURABLE
ENERGETIC POTENTIAL.
FEEDING FLOWS ARE MAINLY DUE TO MONSOON FLOW, BUT A SOUTHERLY FLOW
IS
EXPECTED TO INTER TH SOUTH OF THE CHANEL TOMORROW.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK GLOBALLY EASTERWARDS UNDER THE MAIN
STEERING INFLUENCE OF HIGHS LOCATED NORTH TO THE SYSTEM.
THE SYSTEM MAY REACH STORM STAGE BEFORE ITS LANDFALL ON THE MALAGASY
COAST NERARBY MORONDAVA A LITTLE BEFORE 02/12Z.
IT IS FORECATED TO EXIT OVER SEAS OVER THE INDIEN OCEAN WITH
FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS BEYOD TAU36.=
NNNN

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Track

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THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.6S
42.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.7S 42.7E, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM WEST
OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) AND SOME WRAPPING CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE
SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BENEATH AN
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE THAT IS ALSO PROVIDING GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW.
BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES, THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO IMPROVED
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED
TO FAIR.

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Latest

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ZCZC 583
WTIO24 FMEE 020010
SECURITE
NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 02/02/2010
AT
0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 002/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
NEAR GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 02/02/2010 AT 0000 UTC.
PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11 999 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.7S / 43.3E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY THREE DECIMAL THREE
DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 6 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 130 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER,
EXTENDING UP
TO 300 NM IN THE NORTHERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 400 NM IN THE EASTERN
QUADRANT.
CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 25/30 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 30
MN
FROM THE CENTER, REACHING LOCALY 30 KT IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2010/02/02 AT 12 UTC:
20.4S / 45.0E, OVERLAND.
24H, VALID 2010/02/03 AT 00 UTC:
21.2S / 48.8E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
OTHER INFORMATIONS:
CONVECTION HAS CLEARLY DEEPENED DURING THE LAST HOURS OVER THE
CENTER.
ENVIRONNEMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLES TO INTENSIFICATION, WITH A
WEAKENING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR , AS THE MINIMUM TRACK OVER VERY
FAVOURABLE
ENERGETIC POTENTIAL.
THE SYSTEM MAY REACH STORM STAGE BEFORE ITS LANDFALL ON THE MALAGASY
COAST NEARBY MORONDAVA BETWEEN 02/06Z AND 02/12Z.=
NNNN

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Latest

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WTXS21 PGTW 020230
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 250 NM RADIUS OF 20.5S 42.7E WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE
25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 022330Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 20.7S 42.8E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.7S 42.7E, IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 20.7S 42.8E, APPROXIMATELY 260 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 012228Z AMSR-E MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN
AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BENEATH AN ANTICYCLONE ALOFT THAT IS
PROVIDING SUBSTANTIAL RADIAL OUTFLOW. ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS ARE
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, HOWEVER THE SYSTEM FORMATION
COULD BE HINDERED IF IT BEGINS TO TRACK EASTWARD OVER MADAGASCAR.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS
BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND FMEE. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000MB. DUE TO INCREASED CONVECTIVE
CONSOLIDATION AND MULTIPLE BANDS EVIDENT IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY, THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
030230Z.//
NNNN

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ZCZC 867
WTIO30 FMEE 020706 CCA
*************** CORRECTIVE **************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 3/11/20092010
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (FAMI)
2.A POSITION 2010/02/02 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.6S / 43.7E
(TWENTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY THREE DECIMAL SEVEN
DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : EAST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /D 1.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 50 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 090 SE: 070 SO: 070 NO: 060
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/02/02 18 UTC: 21.6S/46.0E OVERLAND.
24H: 2010/02/03 06 UTC: 22.4S/50.0E, MAX WIND=025KT , TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
36H: 2010/02/03 18 UTC: 22.8S/52.2E, MAX WIND=025KT , TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
48H: 2010/02/04 06 UTC: 23.4S/55.1E, MAX WIND=025KT , TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
60H: 2010/02/04 18 UTC: 24.9S/58.2E, MAX WIND=025KT , TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
72H: 2010/02/05 06 UTC: 28.3S/62.1E, MAX WIND=025KT , TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=3.0
THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED WITHIN FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
AS
SHOWN BY THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY. IT SHOULD MAKE ITS LANDFALL ON THE
WESTERN MALAGASY COAST NEAR MONRONDAVA IN THE NEXT HOURS. THE SYSTEM
IS
FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY EASTRWARDS UNDER THE MAIN STEERING
INFLUENCE
OF HIGHS LOCATE
D NORTH TO THE SYSTEM.
IT IS FORECASTED TO EXIT OVER SEAS OVER THE INDIEN OCEAN BEYOND TAU12
AND
SHOULD NOT SIGNIFICANTLY REINTENSIFY DUE TO A MODERATE TO STRONG
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR.=
NNNN

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Latest

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WTXS31 PGTW 020900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (FAMI) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/020221ZFEB10//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (FAMI) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 21.0S 43.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.0S 43.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 21.6S 44.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 22.1S 46.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 22.6S 47.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 23.3S 49.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 25.7S 54.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 21.2S 43.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (FAMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLI-
DATED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER A LOW LEVEL CIRCU-
LATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH A 020427Z SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS SHOWING AN
EYE FEATURE DEVELOPING IN THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVELS OF THE SYSTEM. THE
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS VERY FAVORABLE WITH A POINT SOURCE ANTI-
CYCLONE OVER THE LLCC PROVIDING AMPLE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW WITH A
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL STARTING TO DEVELOP. CURRENT DVORAK INTEN-
SITY FIXES FROM PGTW AND FMEE INDICATE THE SYSTEM IS AROUND 40 KNOTS
AND HAS IMPROVED DRASTICALLY OVER THE PAST 6 TO 12 HOURS. HOWEVER,
THE CURRENT TRACK IS TAKING TC 13S OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF MADA-
GASCAR, AND THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF LAND WILL CAUSE DISSIPATION TO
BEGIN IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE CURRENT FORECAST FAVORS THE ECMF
SOLUTION, WITH THE LLCC BRIEFLY INTENSIFYING UPON MOVING BACK OVER
WATER, BUT STARTING TO WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AFTER TAU 48. A SERIES OF MID-LATITUDE LOWS WILL CAUSE TC 13S TO MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD WITH EVENTUAL CAPTURE AND FULL DISSIPATION BY TAU 72.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS NOT HANDLED THE DEVELOPMENT OF TC 13S WELL, AND
AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO IS POSSIBLE WITH TC 13S BEING ABLE TO MAINTAIN
ITS STRUCTURE AND STRENGTHEN MORE SIGNIFICANTLY ONCE IT MOVES BACK
OVER WATER. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN
020221Z FEB 10 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 020230)
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 022100Z AND 030900Z.//
NNNN

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ZCZC 695
WTIO30 FMEE 021253
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/11/20092010
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 11 (EX-FAMI)
2.A POSITION 2010/02/02 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.9S / 44.6E
(TWENTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : EAST 7 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : /
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 30 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 060 NO: 090
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/02/03 00 UTC: 21.4S/47.9E, MAX WIND=025KT , TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2010/02/03 12 UTC: 21.9S/51.2E, MAX WIND=025KT , TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
36H: 2010/02/04 00 UTC: 22.8S/53.9E, MAX WIND=025KT , TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
48H: 2010/02/04 12 UTC: 24.0S/56.4E, MAX WIND=025KT , TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
60H: 2010/02/05 00 UTC: 26.1S/59.4E, MAX WIND=020KT , FILLING UP.
72H: 2010/02/05 12 UTC: 30.3S/64.4E DISSIPATING.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE SYSTEM EX-FAMI HAS LANDED ON THE WESTERN MALAGASY COAST IN THE
VICINITY OF BELO AT ABOUT 0900Z. IT IS FORECASTED TO TRACK GENERALLY
EASTWARDS UNDER THE MAIN STEERING INFLUENCE OF HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS
LOCATED
NORTH TO THE SYSTEM.
AFTER CROSSING MADAGASCAR EX-FAMI SHOULD EXIT OVER THE INDIEN OCEAN
THIS
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND SHOULD NOT SIGNIFICANTLY REINTENSIFY WHILE
KEEPING
ON TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARDS, DUE TO A MODERATE TO STRONG
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (AND AN OCEAN HEAT CONTENT
BECOMING
GRADUALLY LESS FAVO
URABLE).=
NNNN

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ZCZC 465
WTIO30 FMEE 021816
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/11/20092010
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 11 (EX-FAMI)
2.A POSITION 2010/02/02 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.7S / 45.9E
(TWENTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FIVE DECIMAL NINE
DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : EAST-NORTH-EAST 13 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : /
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) :
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/02/03 06 UTC: 21.4S/49.1E, MAX WIND=020KT , TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2010/02/03 18 UTC: 22.2S/52.6E, MAX WIND=020KT , TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
36H: 2010/02/04 06 UTC: 23.4S/55.1E, MAX WIND=025KT , TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
48H: 2010/02/04 18 UTC: 24.9S/57.9E, MAX WIND=025KT , BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2010/02/05 06 UTC: 28.0S/61.7E, MAX WIND=025KT , EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2010/02/05 18 UTC: 33.2S/69.2E, MAX WIND=030KT , EXTRATROPICAL.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
EX-FAMI IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING OVERLAND BUT STRONG WINDS SHOULD EXIST
ALONG
THE WESTERN MALAGASY COASTLINE.
IT'S NOT SURE THAT THE RESIDUEL LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER SHOULD
BE
SUCCESSFULL IN SHIFTING ACROSS MALAGASY ISLAND AND IN BEEING OVERSEA
AGAIN ON ITS EAST.
SOME AVAILABLE NWP MODEL SUGGEST THAT A NEW LOW SHOULD DEEPENING
OVERSEA
CLOSE TO THE EASTERN MALAGASY COASTLINE SOUTH OF 20S IN RELATIONSHIP
WITH
THE CURRENT DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THIS AREA.
THE MENTIONNED FORECAST IN THIS WARNING TRACKS ANYWAY EITHER THE
RESIDUAL
LOW OR THE NEW ONE.
IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING GLOBALLY EASTWARDS IN RELATIONSHIP
WITH THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES IN ITS NORTH
AND
SHOULD NOT SIGNIFICANTLY REINTENSIFY DUE TO A MODERATE TO STRONG
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (AND AN OCEAN HEAT CONTENT
BECOMING
GRADUALLY LESS FAV
OURABLE).=
NNNN

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WTXS31 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (FAMI) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (FAMI) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 21.0S 45.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 21.0S 45.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 21.3S 48.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 21.6S 51.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 23.6S 55.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 21.0S 45.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (FAMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM
SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE AND DISORGANIZATION OF DEEP CONVECTION
AS TC 13S HAS TRACKED OVER MADAGASCAR. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED BENEATH
AN UPPER LEVEL POINT SOURCE WHICH IS PROVIDING GOOD EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, AN UPPER-LEVEL,
MID-LATITUDE LOW IS PROVIDING A SUBSTANTIAL POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL. NEVERTHELESS, OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, TC 13S IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WEAKENING DUE TO THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS AND MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN OF MADAGASCAR AND ENTER THE INDIAN OCEAN AS A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE IS CURRENTLY STEERING TC 13S
EASTWARD, BUT WILL GIVE WAY TO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BY TAU 24,
ENABLING A SOUTHEASTWARD TURN. BY TAU 36, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER, AN ALTERNATE
SCENARIO REMAINS THAT TC 13S COULD START TO INTERACT WITH THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BEGIN TRANSITIONING INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
SYSTEM. AT THE SAME TIME, THE SYSTEM COULD ALSO INTENSIFY INTO A
WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE AS THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE MID-LATITUDES
TEMPORARILY IMPROVES. THERE IS CURRENTLY SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
WHETHER THE SYSTEM COULD STRENGTHEN AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE BEFORE IT COMPLETES A POTENTIAL EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION.
MOST MODELS INDICATE DISSIPATION AT THIS POINT BUT THEY HAVE NOT
HANDLED THIS SYSTEM WELL IN GENERAL. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 8 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 12P (OLI) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON
THAT SYSTEM.//
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