SPO : TROPICAL CYCLONE PAT (14P)

[HURAKAN]

Looking good

[Sheronz]

Temp name is TD09F, I think you can edit the topic title


Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 07/0245 UTC 2010 UTC.

*** CORRECTION TO SYSTEMS LOCATION AND TD NUMBER ***

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD09F [1004HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 8.6S 165.3W AT
062100 UTC AND SLOW MOVING. POSITION FAIR BASED ON IR/VIS IMAGERY
WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHRAL OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES
CELCIUS.

CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT FOR THE LAST 12 HOURS WITH DEEP
COVECTION TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE SYSTEM BUT RESTRICTED
ELSEWHERE. TD09F LIES ALONG A MONSOONAL TROUGH, UNDER A 250HPA
DIFFLUENT REGION IN A WEAK SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND IS SLOWLY MOVING IT
EASTWARDS WITH LITTLE INTENSIFICATIONS.

POTENTAIL FOR TD09F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24
TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.

[Sheronz]

ABPW10 PGTW 070600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/070600Z-080600ZFEB2010//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.2S
166.2W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.2S 164.9W, APPROXIMATELY 460 NM
NORTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
A 070038Z AMSU MICROWAVE PASS SHOW CURVED CONVECTION INTO A
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EMBEDDED WITHIN A
WELL-DEVELOPED TROUGH. CONVECTION HAS BEEN BUILDING OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS NEAR THE LLCC WITH THE DEEPEST BAND OF CONVECTION WRAPPING
FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LLCC. THE UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DUE TO A POINT SOURCE
ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. FURTHERMORE, THE
SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA WITH HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//
NNNN

[Sheronz]

THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 07/0859 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD09F [1003HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 9.0S 164.5W AT
070600 UTC AND SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON IR/EIR IMAGERY
WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHRAL OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES
CELCIUS.

CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN THE LAST 12 HOURS AND HAS SLIGHTLY
INCREASED IN THE LAST 3 HRS DUE TO DIURNAL VARIATION. PRIMARY BAND
FROM THE NORTHWEST TO EAST IS TRYING TO CONSOLIDATE AROUND THE LLCC.
LLCC DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AT THIS STAGE. THE SYSTEM LIES UNDER A
250HPA RIDGE AXIS ALONG A SURFACE MONSOONAL TROUGH IN A LOW SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE NORTH BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE.
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED SOUTHEAST BY THE NORTHWESTERLY DEEP
LAYER MEAN WINDS INTO AN AREA OF DECREASING SHEAR.

MOST GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND GRADUALLY DEVELOPS
09F.

POTENTAIL FOR TD09F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24
TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANAYSED OF FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

[HURAKAN]

WTPS21 PGTW 070730
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 180
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.7S 165.2W TO 13.1S 159.8W WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 070522Z INDI-
CATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 9.2S 164.5W. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.2S
164.9W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.2S 164.5W, APPROXIMATELY 470 NM NORTH-
EAST OF PAGO PAGO. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 070548Z
SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS SHOW CURVED CONVECTION INTO A DEVELOPING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EMBEDDED WITHIN A WELL-DEVELOPED
TROUGH. CONVECTION HAS BEEN BUILDING OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS NEAR THE
LLCC WITH THE DEEPEST BAND OF CONVECTION WRAPPING FROM THE NORTHWEST
INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LLCC. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DUE TO A POINT SOURCE ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. FURTHERMORE, THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN
AREA WITH HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. BASED ON THE OVERALL STRUCTURAL ORGAN-
IZATION OF THE LLCC, WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND FAVORABLE
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
080730Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[cycloneye]

WTPS31 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (FOURTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/070721Z FEB 10//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (FOURTEEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 10.7S 162.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 10.7S 162.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 11.9S 159.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 13.1S 158.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 14.5S 157.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 15.7S 157.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 18.0S 158.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 19.4S 160.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 20.4S 163.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 11.0S 161.6W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14P (FOURTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 540 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS WITH
DIVERGENT OUTFLOW ALOFT. A RECENT 071526Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE, IN
CONCERT WITH A 071557Z SSMIS IMAGE, SHOWS MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS
STARTING TO WRAP INTO THE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). DESPITE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES AND PHFO RANGING
FROM 25 TO 30 KNOTS, THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON
THE MICROWAVE SIGNATURE AND TAKES INTO ACCOUNT THE SMALL SIZE OF THE
SYSTEM (PERHAPS CAUSING ERRONEOUSLY LOW DVORAK ESTIMATES), WHICH IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WELL-DEVELOPED TROUGH. OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS, TC 14P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE.
AT THE SAME TIME, THE SYSTEM WILL FURTHER CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY
DUE TO THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. AFTER TAU 24, A SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE, CURRENTLY ANCHORED EAST OF 120W, WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD WESTWARD AND CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO MAKE A TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH.
AROUND TAU 72, TC 14P WILL BEGIN TO TRACK MORE WESTWARD AS IT
REMAINS EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS THE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH. BEYOND THE EXTENDED TAU'S, THE PASSING TROUGH MAY WEAKEN THE
STEERING RIDGE AND ENABLE TC 14P TO TURN POLEWARD. THE EARLY MODEL
GUIDANCE IS LIMITED AND A BIT SPREAD OUT, THOUGH IT HAS CONSISTENTLY
POINTED TO THE WESTWARD TURN OVER THE LAST THREE MODEL RUNS. THIS
WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 070730). MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
080900Z AND 082100Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A1 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 07/2254 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F [997HPA] CENTRE LOCATED NEAR 11.0S 162.3W AT
072100 UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION FAIR BASED ON GOES VIS/EIR IMAGERY
WITH ANIMATION. MAXIMUM AVERAGE WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS, INCREASING TO
35 KNOTS WITHIN 60 TO 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN SECTORS FROM
NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

PERSISTENT CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN THE LAST 12 HOURS,
ORGANISATION IS GOOD. OUTFLOW EVIDENT TO THE NORTH AND EAST BUT
RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. DIFFLUENT REGION ALOFT IN A LOW SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. NORTHWEST DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO STEER 09F
SOUTHEAST INTO AN AREA OF DECREASING SHEAR.

MOST GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND DEVELOPS IT.

POTENTIAL FOR 09F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON 09F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
081420 UTC OR EARLIER.

[HURAKAN]

Looks like an eye is developing

[HURAKAN]

Next name : PAT

* Mick
* Nisha
* Oli
* Pat (active)
* Rene (unused)
* Sarah (unused)
* Tomas (unused)
* Usha (unused)
* Vania (unused)
* Wilma (unused)
* Yasi (unused)
* Zaka (unused)

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 FEB 2010 Time : 005200 UTC
Lat : 11:23:16 S Lon : 160:48:34 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.0 / 991.0mb/ 45.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.0 3.3 4.0

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -48.3C Cloud Region Temp : -60.5C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.96 ARC in LT GRAY

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.2T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[HURAKAN]

TPPS10 PGTW 072355

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (NE OF SAMOA)

B. 07/2330Z

C. 11.4S

D. 161.5W

E. FOUR/GOES11

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: D1.0/06HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 15A/PBO TIGHTLY CURVED BAND/BANDING EYE/ANMTN. DT IS
2.5 BASED ON .50 WRAP ON LOG SPIRAL. PT AND MET ALSO 2.5. SHORT
TERM CONSTRAINTS BROKEN TO REACH 2.5. SYSTEM IS DEVELOPING
RAPIDLY. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


BRANDON

[HURAKAN]

GALE WARNING 042 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 08/0128 UTC 2010 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone PAT centre [995hPa] category 1 was located near 11.7
South 161.4 West at 080000 UTC.
Position fair.
Repeat position 11.7S 161.4W at 080000 UTC.
Cyclone moving southeast about 10 knots.
Expect sustained winds of 40 knots close to the centre and
winds over 33 knots within 120 nautical miles of
centre in sectors from northeast through southeast to southwest and
within 60 nautical miles elsewhere.

Forecast position near 13.1S 159.7W at 081200 UTC
and near 14.2S 158.5W at 090000 UTC.

All vessels within 300 nauticals miles of the centre are requested to
send reports every three hours to RSMC NADI. VOS reporting ships use
normal channels. Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc
at met dot gov dot fj.

This warning cancels and replaces warning 041.

[HURAKAN]

Eye on the microwave image

[Sheronz]

Special Weather Bulletin Number TWO for Northern Cooks ON TROPICAL
CYCLONE PAT ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 08/0240 UTC 2010 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

A TROPICAL CYCLONE GALE WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR SUWARROW,MANIHIKI
AND RAKAHANGA. A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF
THE NORTHERN COOK ISLANDS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PAT CENTRE [995HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 11 DECIMAL 7 SOUTH
161 DECIMAL 4 WEST OR ABOUT 080 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
MANIHIKI AT 080000 UTC. MAXIMUM 10 MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS CLOSE TO THE
CENTRE ESTIMATED TO 40 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS UP TO 55 KNOTS.
PAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHWARDS LATER.

ON THIS FORECAST TRACK, DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER MANIHIKI AND
RAKAHANGA BUT EXPECTED TO AFFECT SUWARROW IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.


FOR SUWARROW, MANIHIKI AND RAKAHANGA:
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 35 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 50
KNOTS, INCREASING TO 40 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS IN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS ESPECIALLY OVER SUWARROW. FURTHER PERIODS OF
RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS.
VERY ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELLS.

FOR THE REST OF NORTHERN COOK ISLANDS:
NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST WINDS, 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO
35 KNOTS.
PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS.
ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE SWELLS.

PLEASE ACKNOWLEDGE RECEIPT OF THIS BULLETIN.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 080830 UTC OR
EARLIER.

[Sheronz]

GALE WARNING 043 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 08/0659 UTC 2010 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone PAT centre [990hPa] category 1 was located near 12.5
South 161.1 West at 080600 UTC.
Position fair.
Repeat position 12.5S 161.1W at 080600 UTC.
Cyclone moving southeast about 12 knots.
Expect sustained winds of 40 knots close to the centre and
winds over 33 knots within 120 nautical miles of
centre in sectors from northeast through southeast to southwest and
within 60 nautical miles elsewhere.

Forecast position near 13.9S 159.3W at 081800 UTC
and near 15.1S 158.4W at 090600 UTC.

All vessels within 300 nauticals miles of the centre are requested to
send reports every three hours to RSMC NADI. VOS reporting ships use
normal channels. Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc
at met dot gov dot fj.

This warning cancels and replaces warning 042.

[HURAKAN]

WTPS31 PGTW 080900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (PAT) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (PAT) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 12.8S 160.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.8S 160.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 14.2S 159.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 15.4S 159.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 16.1S 160.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 16.8S 161.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 17.5S 163.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 18.1S 165.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 19.6S 168.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
080900Z POSITION NEAR 13.1S 160.5W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14P (PAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 585 NM EAST OF
PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CONVECTION
OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC AND
ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. CURRENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGE FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS, SUPPORTING THE RECENT INCREASE TO 50
KNOTS FOR THIS FORECAST. A 080427Z WINDSAT PASS SHOWS A TIGHTLY
WRAPPED SYSTEM WITH A MICROWAVE EYE DIMPLE PRESENT, WHICH ALSO SUP-
PORTS THE CURRENT INTENSITY. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO
REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW INTO THE POLEWARD AND EQUA-
TORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. TC 14P IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER). THIS IS EXPECTED TO
CHANGE AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST OF PAT BUILDS
TO THE NORTHWEST, CAUSING A SLOW DOWN IN THE TRACK SPEED AS THE
DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE SHIFTS FROM THE NER TO THE STR. THE STR
WILL CAUSE THE TRACK TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH AN INCREASE IN SPEED NEAR TAU 96 AS THE
STR STRENGTHENS. INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INCREASING THROUGH
TAU 48 WITH THE GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. AS TC 14P TRACKS MORE
SOUTHWARD, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO HINDER DEVELOPMENT AND EVENTUALLY LEAD TO
A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFI-
CANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z AND
090900Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A3 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 08/0815 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PAT CENTRE [990HPA][CAT1] LOCATED NEAR 12.5S 161.1W
AT 080600 UTC MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 12 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR BASED ON
GOES IR/EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. MAXIMUM AVERAGE WINDS WINDS OF 40
KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE AND WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS
WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN SECTORS FROM NORTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH TOPS COOLING IN THE LAST 3 HRS DUE
TO DIURNAL VARIATION. OVERALL ORGANISATION IS GOOD. PRIMARY BAND
CONTINUES TO WRAP INTO LLLC. OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD. PAT LIES IN A
DIFFLUENT REGION ALOFT IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. DVORAK ANALYSIS
BASED ON 0.7 WRAP ON LOG 10 SPIRAL, YIELDS DT3.0,PT=3.0 AND MET 2.5.
FT BASED ON DT. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY STEERED SOUTHEAST BY
NORTHWEST DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW INTO AREA OF DECREASING SHEAR AND
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHWARDS IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

MOST GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON A SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT AND WITH
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 081800 UTC 13.9S 159.6W MOV SE AT 09 KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 090600 UTC 15.2S 158.4W MOV S AT 08 KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 091800 UTC 16.5S 157.6W MOV SW AT 10 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO
CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 100600 UTC 18.3S 158.7W MOV SW 10 KT WITH 55 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC PAT WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 081430 UTC OR EARLIER.