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SPO : TROPICAL CYCLONE RENE (15P)
Moderator: S2k Moderators
-
Sheronz
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 117
- Age: 39
- Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 11:05 pm
- Location: Tahiti - French Polynesia
Re: SPO : INVEST 98P
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 09/1620 UTC 2010 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE PAT CENTRE [975HPA] CAT 2 LOCATED NEAR 15.1S 159.1W
AT 090600 UTC.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON TC PAT REFER TO TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
ADVISORY NUMBER A7 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI FEB 09/0837 UTC 2010 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10F CENTRE [1004HPA] LOCATED NEAR 13S 172W AT
091200 UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON IR/EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 30 DEGREE CELCIUS.
DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTENT IN THE LAST 24 HOURS AND HAS SIGNIFICANTLY
INCREASED IN THE LAST 12 HOURS. ORGANISATION IS POOR AT THIS STAGE
BUT EXPECTED TO IMPROVE. LLCC DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. OUTFLOW GOOD TO
THE NORTH AND EAST BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
EVIDENT FROM SURFACE TO 700 HPA. 10F LIES UNDER A DIFFLUENT REGION
ALOFT ALONG A MOONSON TROUGH IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
NORTHWESTLLY SURGE EVIDENT. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STEERED SOUTHEAST
INTO AREA OF DECREASING SHEAR IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
GLOBAL MODELS [GFS/UK] HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND SLOWLY DEVELOPS
IT.
POTENTIAL FOR 10F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24
TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE.
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANAYSED OF FORECAST IN THE
AREA.
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 09/1620 UTC 2010 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE PAT CENTRE [975HPA] CAT 2 LOCATED NEAR 15.1S 159.1W
AT 090600 UTC.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON TC PAT REFER TO TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
ADVISORY NUMBER A7 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI FEB 09/0837 UTC 2010 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10F CENTRE [1004HPA] LOCATED NEAR 13S 172W AT
091200 UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON IR/EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 30 DEGREE CELCIUS.
DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTENT IN THE LAST 24 HOURS AND HAS SIGNIFICANTLY
INCREASED IN THE LAST 12 HOURS. ORGANISATION IS POOR AT THIS STAGE
BUT EXPECTED TO IMPROVE. LLCC DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. OUTFLOW GOOD TO
THE NORTH AND EAST BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
EVIDENT FROM SURFACE TO 700 HPA. 10F LIES UNDER A DIFFLUENT REGION
ALOFT ALONG A MOONSON TROUGH IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
NORTHWESTLLY SURGE EVIDENT. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STEERED SOUTHEAST
INTO AREA OF DECREASING SHEAR IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
GLOBAL MODELS [GFS/UK] HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND SLOWLY DEVELOPS
IT.
POTENTIAL FOR 10F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24
TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE.
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANAYSED OF FORECAST IN THE
AREA.
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Sheronz
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 117
- Age: 39
- Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 11:05 pm
- Location: Tahiti - French Polynesia
Re: SPO : TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10F (98P)
ABPW10 PGTW 092130
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/092130Z-100600ZFEB2010//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/091951ZFEB2010//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 091800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (PAT) WAS LOCATED NEAR
16.6S 159.0W, APPROXIMATELY 275 NM NORTH OF RARATONGA, AND HAD
TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 75 KNOTS GUSTING TO 90
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 092100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.1S 172.3W,
APPROXIMATELY 150 NM NORTHWEST OF PAGO-PAGO, OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RAPID DEEPENING WITH GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW OVER THE SYSTEM. A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES INCLUDING A
091813Z SSMI PASS SHOWS IMPROVED ORGANIZATION WITH FORMATIVE BANDING
ALONG THE NORTHERN FLANK. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT
ALONG THE NEAR EQUATORIAL TROUGH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15-20 KNOTS AND MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE AT 1008 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO POOR.
NNNN
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/092130Z-100600ZFEB2010//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/091951ZFEB2010//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 091800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (PAT) WAS LOCATED NEAR
16.6S 159.0W, APPROXIMATELY 275 NM NORTH OF RARATONGA, AND HAD
TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 75 KNOTS GUSTING TO 90
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 092100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.1S 172.3W,
APPROXIMATELY 150 NM NORTHWEST OF PAGO-PAGO, OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RAPID DEEPENING WITH GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW OVER THE SYSTEM. A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES INCLUDING A
091813Z SSMI PASS SHOWS IMPROVED ORGANIZATION WITH FORMATIVE BANDING
ALONG THE NORTHERN FLANK. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT
ALONG THE NEAR EQUATORIAL TROUGH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15-20 KNOTS AND MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE AT 1008 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO POOR.
NNNN
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Sheronz
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 117
- Age: 39
- Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 11:05 pm
- Location: Tahiti - French Polynesia
Re: SPO : TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10F (98P)
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 09/2308 UTC 2010 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE PAT CENTRE [975HPA] CAT 2 LOCATED NEAR 16.5S 158.9W
AT 091800 UTC.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON TC PAT REFER TO TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
ADVISORY NUMBER A9 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 09/2017 UTC 2010 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10F CENTRE [1003HPA] LOCATED NEAR 12S 172W AT
092100 UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON IR/VIS IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 30 DEGREE CELCIUS.
DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTENT IN THE LAST 12 HOURS. THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE
WARMED UP IN THE LAST 6 HOURS DUE TO DIURNAL VARIATION, HOWEVER,
CONVECTION IS INCREASING TO THE EAST OF 10F. ORGANISATION HAS
SLIGHTLY INCREASED IN THE LAST 12 HOURS AND IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER
IMPROVE. LLCC DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE NORTH AND EAST
BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EVIDENT FROM SURFACE
TO 700 HPA. 10F LIES UNDER A DIFFLUENT REGION ALOFT ALONG A MONSOONAL
TROUGH IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. A NORTHWESTLLY SURGE IS FEEDING
INTO THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED SOUTHEAST INTO
AREA OF MODERATE SHEAR IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
GLOBAL MODELS [GFS/UK] HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND SLOWLY DEVELOPS
IT.
POTENTIAL FOR 10F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24
TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE.
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANAYSED OF FORECAST IN THE
AREA.
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 09/2308 UTC 2010 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE PAT CENTRE [975HPA] CAT 2 LOCATED NEAR 16.5S 158.9W
AT 091800 UTC.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON TC PAT REFER TO TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
ADVISORY NUMBER A9 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 09/2017 UTC 2010 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10F CENTRE [1003HPA] LOCATED NEAR 12S 172W AT
092100 UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON IR/VIS IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 30 DEGREE CELCIUS.
DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTENT IN THE LAST 12 HOURS. THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE
WARMED UP IN THE LAST 6 HOURS DUE TO DIURNAL VARIATION, HOWEVER,
CONVECTION IS INCREASING TO THE EAST OF 10F. ORGANISATION HAS
SLIGHTLY INCREASED IN THE LAST 12 HOURS AND IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER
IMPROVE. LLCC DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE NORTH AND EAST
BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EVIDENT FROM SURFACE
TO 700 HPA. 10F LIES UNDER A DIFFLUENT REGION ALOFT ALONG A MONSOONAL
TROUGH IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. A NORTHWESTLLY SURGE IS FEEDING
INTO THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED SOUTHEAST INTO
AREA OF MODERATE SHEAR IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
GLOBAL MODELS [GFS/UK] HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND SLOWLY DEVELOPS
IT.
POTENTIAL FOR 10F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24
TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE.
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANAYSED OF FORECAST IN THE
AREA.
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HurricaneBill
- Category 5
- Posts: 3420
- Joined: Sun Apr 11, 2004 5:51 pm
- Location: East Longmeadow, MA, USA
Re: SPO : TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10F (98P)
The next name up is "Rene". (The masculine form of "Renee")
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Sheronz
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 117
- Age: 39
- Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 11:05 pm
- Location: Tahiti - French Polynesia
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.1S
172.3W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.6S 171.4W, APPROXIMATELY 110 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION AND INCREASING CONVECTION. A
100103Z AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES IMPROVED ORGANIZATION
WITH MULTIPLE BANDS WRAPPING INTO A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM PAGO
PAGO INDICATE A SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF 1003.7 MB WITH A DECREASE OF
2 MB IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE
SYSTEM IS IN A REGION OF WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH AN
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SYSTEM ENHANCING OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD. SEE REF B (WTPS21 PGTW 100530) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
172.3W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.6S 171.4W, APPROXIMATELY 110 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION AND INCREASING CONVECTION. A
100103Z AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES IMPROVED ORGANIZATION
WITH MULTIPLE BANDS WRAPPING INTO A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM PAGO
PAGO INDICATE A SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF 1003.7 MB WITH A DECREASE OF
2 MB IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE
SYSTEM IS IN A REGION OF WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH AN
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SYSTEM ENHANCING OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD. SEE REF B (WTPS21 PGTW 100530) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
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Sheronz
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 117
- Age: 39
- Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 11:05 pm
- Location: Tahiti - French Polynesia
WTPS21 PGTW 100530
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.1S 172.3W TO 13.1S 167.9W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA AT 100500Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION
CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.6S 171.4W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.1S
172.3W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.6S 171.4W, APPROXIMATELY 110 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION AND INCREASING CONVECTION. A
100103Z AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES IMPROVED ORGANIZATION
WITH MULTIPLE BANDS WRAPPING INTO A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM PAGO
PAGO INDICATE A SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF 1003.7 MB WITH A DECREASE OF 2
MB IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE
SYSTEM IS IN A REGION OF WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH AN
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SYSTEM ENHANCING OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. DUE TO INCREASED
CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
110530Z.//
NNNN
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.1S 172.3W TO 13.1S 167.9W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA AT 100500Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION
CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.6S 171.4W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.1S
172.3W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.6S 171.4W, APPROXIMATELY 110 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION AND INCREASING CONVECTION. A
100103Z AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES IMPROVED ORGANIZATION
WITH MULTIPLE BANDS WRAPPING INTO A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM PAGO
PAGO INDICATE A SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF 1003.7 MB WITH A DECREASE OF 2
MB IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE
SYSTEM IS IN A REGION OF WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH AN
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SYSTEM ENHANCING OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. DUE TO INCREASED
CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
110530Z.//
NNNN
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10F CENTRE [1000HPA] NEAR 13.0S 170.9W AT 100600
UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR. POSITION POOR BASED ON IR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 30 DEGREE CELCIUS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION AND INCREASED
CONVECTION IN THE LAST 12 HOURS. LLCC DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. OUTFLOW
GOOD TO THE NORTH AND EAST BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION EVIDENT FROM SURFACE TO 700 HPA. 10F LIES UNDER A
DIFFLUENT REGION ALOFT ALONG A MONSOONAL TROUGH IN A LOW SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. A NORTHWESTLLY SURGE IS FEEDING INTO THE SYSTEM. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED SOUTHEAST INTO AREA OF MODERATE
SHEAR IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
GLOBAL MODELS [GFS/UK] HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND SLOWLY DEVELOPS
IT.
POTENTIAL FOR 10F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24
TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE.
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANAYSED OF FORECAST IN THE
AREA.
UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR. POSITION POOR BASED ON IR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 30 DEGREE CELCIUS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION AND INCREASED
CONVECTION IN THE LAST 12 HOURS. LLCC DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. OUTFLOW
GOOD TO THE NORTH AND EAST BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION EVIDENT FROM SURFACE TO 700 HPA. 10F LIES UNDER A
DIFFLUENT REGION ALOFT ALONG A MONSOONAL TROUGH IN A LOW SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. A NORTHWESTLLY SURGE IS FEEDING INTO THE SYSTEM. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED SOUTHEAST INTO AREA OF MODERATE
SHEAR IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
GLOBAL MODELS [GFS/UK] HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND SLOWLY DEVELOPS
IT.
POTENTIAL FOR 10F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24
TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE.
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANAYSED OF FORECAST IN THE
AREA.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
GALE WARNING 053 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 10/1356 UTC 2010 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10F CENTRE [1000HPA] NEAR 13.0S 170.0W AT 101200 UTC SLOW
MOVING.
POSITION POOR.
CLOCKWISE WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS, POSSIBILY INCREASING TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 60 TO
120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN SECTORS FROM NORTH THROUGH NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHEAST IN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.
THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 051.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10F CENTRE [1000HPA] NEAR 13.0S 170.0W AT 101200 UTC SLOW
MOVING.
POSITION POOR.
CLOCKWISE WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS, POSSIBILY INCREASING TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 60 TO
120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN SECTORS FROM NORTH THROUGH NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHEAST IN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.
THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 051.
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Sheronz
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 117
- Age: 39
- Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 11:05 pm
- Location: Tahiti - French Polynesia
GALE WARNING 055 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 10/1910 UTC 2010 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10F CENTRE [998HPA] NEAR 12.5S 167.9W AT 101800 UTC MOVING
EAST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
CLOCKWISE WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS, POSSIBILY INCREASING TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 60 TO
120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN SECTORS FROM NORTH THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHWEST IN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 053.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10F CENTRE [998HPA] NEAR 12.5S 167.9W AT 101800 UTC MOVING
EAST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
CLOCKWISE WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS, POSSIBILY INCREASING TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 60 TO
120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN SECTORS FROM NORTH THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHWEST IN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 053.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B1 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 10/2046 UTC 2010 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10F CENTRE [998HPA] NEAR 12.5S 167.9W AT 101800
UTC MOVING EAST ABOUT 11 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT EIR
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE
AVERAGE SUSTAINED WINDS ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 WITHIN 60 TO 120
NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN SECTORS NORTH THROUGH EAST TO SOUTH AND
THEN SOUTHWEST POSSIBLY INCREASIN TO 35 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS.
BANDS TO NORTH AND SOUTH TRYING TO CONSOLIDATE AND WRAP AROUND LLCC
AGAINST SHEAR. SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN OVERALL ORGANISATION PAST 24
HOURS. SHEAR OVER SYSTEM AROUND 10 TO 20KT. SST AROUND 30C. THE
SYSTEM STEERED EAST BY LOW-MIDLEVEL WESTERLIES BUT EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHWARDS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. DVORAK BASED
0.3 WRAP ON LOG 10 SPIRAL YIEDING DT2.0 PT=2.0 MET=2.0, THUS
T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON AN EASTERLY
TRACK WITH LITTLE INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
POTENTIAL FOR 10F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS IS MODERATE.
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD 10F WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 110230 UTC.
Feb 10/2046 UTC 2010 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10F CENTRE [998HPA] NEAR 12.5S 167.9W AT 101800
UTC MOVING EAST ABOUT 11 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT EIR
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE
AVERAGE SUSTAINED WINDS ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 WITHIN 60 TO 120
NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN SECTORS NORTH THROUGH EAST TO SOUTH AND
THEN SOUTHWEST POSSIBLY INCREASIN TO 35 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS.
BANDS TO NORTH AND SOUTH TRYING TO CONSOLIDATE AND WRAP AROUND LLCC
AGAINST SHEAR. SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN OVERALL ORGANISATION PAST 24
HOURS. SHEAR OVER SYSTEM AROUND 10 TO 20KT. SST AROUND 30C. THE
SYSTEM STEERED EAST BY LOW-MIDLEVEL WESTERLIES BUT EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHWARDS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. DVORAK BASED
0.3 WRAP ON LOG 10 SPIRAL YIEDING DT2.0 PT=2.0 MET=2.0, THUS
T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON AN EASTERLY
TRACK WITH LITTLE INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
POTENTIAL FOR 10F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS IS MODERATE.
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD 10F WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 110230 UTC.
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