SPO : INVEST 99P

[Sheronz]

[Sheronz]

(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.6S 169.4E,
APPROXIMATELY 200 NM NORTHEAST OF VANUATU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DISORGANIZED PERSISTENT CONVECTION AND
BROAD TURNING WITH POSSIBLE MULTIPLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTERS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITH POLEWARD
OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTHEASTERN AUSTRALIA AND
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CORAL SEA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS POOR.

[Sheronz]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.6S
169.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4S 172.4E, APPROXIMATELY 530 NM
NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF DISORGANIZED CONVECTION OVER AN AREA OF
TROUGHING WITH MULTIPLE SMALL SCALE CIRCULATIONS PRESENT. SURFACE
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AROUND 30 CELSIUS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
AREA IS IN LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH AN UPPER LEVEL POINT SOURCE
ANTICYCLONE LOCATED ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. BASED ON A POORLY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.

[Sheronz]

No longer visible.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD [1006HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 11.0S 175.0E AT
111800UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR. SST IS AROUND 30 DEGREES
CELCIUS. ORGANISATION HAS NOT CHANGES MUCH IN THE LAST 12 HOURS.
CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT AND IS CONFINED TO THE NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. SYSTEM LIES ALONG A MONSOON TROUGH
AT THE SURFACE AND UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN A WEAKLY SHEARED
ENVIROMENT.
GLOBAL MODEL ECMWF HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM BUT DID NOT FURTHER
DEVELOP IT.
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.