SPO : EX TROPICAL CYCLONE SARAH

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 19/0852 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD CENTRE [1006HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 06.0S 162.0W
AT 190600UTC. SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR WITH
ANIMATION. SST IS AROUND 30 DEGREE CELCIUS.

CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTANT FOR THE LAST 24 HOURS BUT HAS NOT
INCREASED OR DEEPENED MUCH IN THE LAST 6 HOURS. OVERALL ORGANISATION
IN THE LAST 12 HOURS HAS BEEN POOR. THE LLCC IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE
AT THIS STAGE. THE OUTFLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTRE
BUT IS RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. TD LIES ALONG SURFACE TROUGH. THE SYSTEM
LIES IN A 15 KNOT SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED
SOUTHEASTWARDS BY THE NORTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN WIND INTO AN AREA
OF MODERATE SHEAR.

GLOBAL MODELS [UK/GFS] HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM BUT DO NOT DEVELOP.
POTENTIAL FOR TD TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO
48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

[Chacor]

This would be the area associated with 90C, then.

[Sheronz]

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 19/2259 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD CENTRE [1006HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 07.0S 162.0W
AT 191800UTC. SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR/VIS WITH
ANIMATION. SST IS AROUND 30 DEGREE CELCIUS.

CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTANT FOR THE LAST 24 HOURS BUT HAS NOT
INCREASED OR DEEPENED MUCH IN THE LAST 6 HOURS. OVERALL ORGANISATION
IN THE LAST 12 HOURS HAS BEEN POOR. THE LLCC IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE
AT THIS STAGE. THE OUTFLOW IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTRE BUT IS RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. TD LIES ALONG SURFACE TROUGH. THE
SYSTEM LIES IN A 10 KNOT SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND IS EXPECTED TO BE
STEERED EASTWARD BY THE NORTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN WIND INTO AN
AREA OF DECREASING SHEAR.

GLOBAL MODELS [UK/GFS] HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM BUT DO NOT DEVELOP.
POTENTIAL FOR TD TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO
48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

[Sheronz]

ABPW10 PGTW 200100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/200100Z-200600ZFEB2010//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.5S
148.3E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.0S 166.8W,
APPROXIMATELY 500 NM SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
IMAGERY SHOWS POORLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION FLARING AROUND A WEAK LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD TROUGHING.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW SUPPORTING DIVERGENCE
ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: DISSIPATED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) AND
UPGRADED PARA 2.B.(2) AS POOR.
NNNN

[Sheronz]

ABPW10 PGTW 200600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/200600Z-210600ZFEB2010//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.0S
166.8W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.8S 165.5W, APPROXIMATELY 545 NM
NORTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW POORLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION FLARING AROUND A LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD
TROUGHING. HOWEVER, 200439Z SSMI AND 200037Z AQUA MICROWAVE IMAGES
SHOW IMPROVED ORGANIZATION IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW SUPPORTING DIVERGENCE ALOFT.
ADDITIONALLY, SEVERAL MODELS DEVELOP THE SYSTEM INTO A 35-KNOT
TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVED NATURE
OF THE LLCC EVIDENT IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND FUTURE MODEL
DEVELOPMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
NNNN

[Sheronz]

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 20/0851 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD CENTRE [1006HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 8.0S 163.0W AT
200600UTC. SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR WITH
ANIMATION. SST IS AROUND 30 DEGREE CELCIUS.

CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTANT BUT HAS NOT INCREASED OR DEEPENED MUCH
IN THE LAST 6 HOURS. OVERALL ORGANISATION IN THE LAST 12 HOURS HAS
BEEN POOR. THE LLCC IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AT THIS STAGE. THE OUTFLOW
IS TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTRE BUT IS RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE.
TD LIES ALONG SURFACE TROUGH. THE SYSTEM LIES IN A 10 KNOT SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT AND IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED EASTWARD BY THE
NORTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN WIND.

GLOBAL MODELS [UK/GFS] HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND SLOWLY DEVELOPS
IT. POTENTIAL FOR TD TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

[Sheronz]

It seems there are 2 formations.. ?

[Chacor]

It does look as if there are two separate systems there.

[Sheronz]

more organized

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 20/1826 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD11F [1005HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 6.2S 164.0W AT
201200UTC. SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR WITH
ANIMATION. SST IS AROUND 30 DEGREE CELCIUS.

CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTANT AND HAS INCREASED SLIGHLTLY IN THE LAST
6 HOURS. ORGANISATION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED IN THE LAST 12
HOURS. THE LLCC REMAINS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. THE OUTFLOW IS GOOD TO
THE NORTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTRE BUT IS RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. TD11F
LIES ALONG SURFACE TROUGH AND IN A 10 KNOT SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. TD11F
IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED EASTWARD BY THE NORTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER
MEAN WIND.

GLOBAL MODELS [UK/GFS/EC] HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND SLOWLY
DEVELOPS IT. POTENTIAL FOR TD TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

[Sheronz]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A1 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 20/2123 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11F CENTRE [1005HPA] LOCATED NEAR 6.0S 162.5W AT
201800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES VIS/EIR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION. DEPRESSION MOVING EAST AT 08 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS
OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS BETWEEN 60 AND 150 NAUTICAL MILES AWAY FROM CENTRE
IN SECTORS FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST TO EAST.

OVERALL ORGANISATION IMPROVED PAST 6 HOURS WITH SPIRAL BAND ACQUIRING
SOME CURVATURE. TOPS ABOUT CENTRE COOLING. OUTFLOW DEVELOPING. SHEAR
OVER SYSTEM AROUND 10 TO 20 KNOTS. STRONGER SHEAR REGION JUST SOUTH
OF DEPRESSION. SYSTEM LIES UNDER DIVERGENT REGION. SST AROUND 30C.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.3 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING DT=1.5.
PT=1.5 MET=1.0. FT BASED ON DT THUS, T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS. SYSTEM
STEERED EAST BY EQUATORIAL WESTERLIES. LOW- TO MID-LEVL RIDGE TO
NORTHEAST EXPECTED TO TURN SYSTEM POLEWARD, GRADUALLY. GLOBAL MODELS
AGREE ON A GRADUAL SOUTHEAST TURN WITH LITTLE OR NO INTENSIFUICATION.
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO
48 HOURS IS MODERATE.


THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD 11F WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 210230 UTC OR EARLIER.

[Sheronz]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A2 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 21/0156 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11F CENTRE [1000HPA] LOCATED NEAR 6.5S 161.5W AT
210000 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON GOES VIS/EIR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION. DEPRESSION NOW MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST 10 KNOTS AND EXPECTED
TO TURN SOUTH IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 10-MINUTE
AVERAGE WINDS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS IN AREA BETWEEN 60 AND 150 NAUTICAL
MILES AWAY FROM CENTRE IN SECTORS FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTH TO
EAST.

AREAL EXTENT OF DEEP CONVECTION DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY PAST 6 HOURS
AND ATTRIBUTED TO SHEAR AND DIURNAL VARIATION. LLCC LOCATED UNDER
COLDEST TOPS. OUTFLOW DEVELOPING. SHEAR OVER SYSTEM AROUND 10 TO 20
KNOTS. STRONGER SHEAR REGION JUST SOUTH OF DEPRESSION. SYSTEM LIES
UNDER DIVERGENT REGION AT 250HPA. SST AROUND 30C. DVORAK ANALYSIS
BASED ON 0.5 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING DT=2.5. PT=2.0 MET=2.0. FT
BASED ON PT THUS, T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS. SYSTEM STEERED BY EQUATORIAL
RIDGE TO NORTHEAST. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A GRADUAL SOUTHEAST TURN
WITH LITTLE OR NO INTENSIFUICATION.
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO
48 HOURS IS MODERATE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD 11F WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 210830 UTC OR EARLIER.

[Sheronz]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A3 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 21/0249 UTC 2010 UTC.

CORRECTION TO GALE SECTORS...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11F CENTRE [1000HPA] RE-LOCATED NEAR 7.2S 160.7W
AT 210000 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON GOES VIS/EIR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION. DEPRESSION NOW MOVING SOUTHEAST 15 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO
TURN SOUTH IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 10-MINUTE AVERAGE
WINDS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS IN AREA BETWEEN 60 AND 150 NAUTICAL MILES
AWAY FROM CENTRE IN THE NORTHERN QUADRANT.

LLCC FULLY EXPOSED TO SOUTHEAST OF DIMINISHING DEEP CONVECTION. SHEAR
OVER SYSTEM AROUND 10 TO 20 KNOTS. STRONGER SHEAR REGION JUST SOUTH
OF DEPRESSION. SYSTEM LIES UNDER DIVERGENT REGION AT 250HPA. SST
AROUND 30C. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.5 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING DT=2.5. PT=2.0 MET=2.0. FT BASED ON PT THUS,
T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS. SYSTEM STEERED BY EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO NORTHEAST.
GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A GRADUAL SOUTHEAST TURN WITH LITTLE OR NO
INTENSIFUICATION.
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO
48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD 11F WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 210830 UTC OR EARLIER.

[Sheronz]

Dizorganized a bit.

ABPW10 PGTW 210600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/210600Z-220600ZFEB2010//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.8S
165.5W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.9S 159.7W, APPROXIMATELY 750 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED BUT WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION FLARING
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. A 210423Z SSMI IMAGE INDICATES SHALLOW
CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER WITH MULTIPLE BANDS
CONVERGING OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. A 201954Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWED
STRONG WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF AN ELONGATED
LLCC WITH WINDS LESS THAN 20 KNOTS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES BROAD DIFFLUENCE AND WEAK VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO
30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
NNNN

[cycloneye]

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert

WTPS21 PGTW 210930
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.2S 160.6W TO 12.2S 157.1W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 210900Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 7.9S 159.7W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.9S
159.7W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.9S 159.7W, APPROXIMATELY 750 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 210613Z SSMIS IMAGE DEPICT IMPROVING ORGANIZATION
OVER THE PAST 03-04 HOURS WITH AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION
AND CURVED BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF A DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 201954Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWED
STRONG WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF AN ELONGATED
LLCC WITH WINDS LESS THAN 20 KNOTS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES BROAD DIFFLUENCE AND WEAK VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO
35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 220930Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Looking a lot better

[HURAKAN]

21/1422 UTC 9.0S 158.5W T1.5/1.5 94P -- Southeast Pacific

25 knots

[cycloneye]

For sure it will be named shortly as it continues to organize.

[P.K.]

WTPS11 NFFN 211200
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A5 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 21/1431 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11F CENTRE [1000HPA] LOCATED NEAR 8.9S 158.4W AT
211200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES IR/EIR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION. DEPRESSION MOVING SOUTHEAST 15 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO TURN
SOUTH IN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 10-MINUTE AVERAGE
WINDS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS BETWEEN 60 AND 150 NAUTICAL MILES AWAY FROM
CENTRE IN SECTORS NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST.

LLCC LOCATED UNDER DEEP CONVECTION. CONVECTION INCREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE LAST 6 HOURS. ORAGANISATION IMPROVED. OUTFLOW
GOOD TO NORTH AND EAST BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. 11F LIES UNDER
DIFFLUENT REGION ALOFT ON EQUATORWARD SIDE OF TUTT. ENVIRONMENTAL
SHEAR OVER 11F IS MODERATE. SST AROUND 30C. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON
0.4 WRAP ON LOG 10 SPIRAL YIELDING DT=2.5. PT=2.5 MET=2.0. FT BASED
ON DT THUS, T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS. SYSTEM STEERED BY EQUATORIAL RIDGE
TO NORTHEAST. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT BEFORE
GRADUALLY MOVING IT SOUTHWARDS INTO AREA OF DECREASING SHEAR.

POTENTIAL FOR 11F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS IS MODERATE.


THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD 11F WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 212030 UTC OR EARLIER.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Sheronz]

Latest.