SIO: OVERLAND DEPRESSION EX-HUBERT (13R/18S)

[HURAKAN]

ABIO10 PGTW 090100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/090100Z-091800ZMAR2010//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.5S 51.5E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.9S 50.2E, APPROXIMATELY 190 NM EAST-NORTHEAST
OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE
MAIN CONVECTION HAS MOVED OFFSHORE AND DEEPENED OVER THE PAST SIX
HOUR, ALTHOUGH IT REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A
092205Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND GOOD OUTFLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ENHANCED BY STRONG
WESTERLY WINDS TO THE SOUTH AND A LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST. LATEST DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES INDICATE THE SYSTEM HAS
INTENSIFIED TO T1.0 (25 KNOTS). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE AT 1006
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) UPGRADED TO FAIR.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 134
WTIO30 FMEE 091228
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/13/20092010
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 13
2.A POSITION 2010/03/09 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.9S / 50.8E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES
EAST
)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 4 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1005 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 350 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/03/10 00 UTC: 20.0S/50.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
24H: 2010/03/10 12 UTC: 20.2S/50.3E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
36H: 2010/03/11 00 UTC: 20.1S/49.5E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
48H: 2010/03/11 12 UTC: 19.8S/48.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, OVERLAND.
60H: 2010/03/12 00 UTC: 19.4S/46.9E, MAX WIND=020KT, OVERLAND.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=2.0; CI=2.0
SYSTEM SHOWS A CURVED BANDS FEATURE SINCE 0900Z. IT SLOWLY MOVES
SOUTHWARDS AT ABOUT 200 KM FROM THE MALAGASY EASTERN COAST.
OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE RATHER GOOD WITH
IMPROVED LOW LEVELS TRADEWINDS INFLOW AND NO WINDSHEAR AND GOOD
DIVERGENCE UNDER UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURES. SYSTEM COULD REACH THE
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STAGE.
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN QUASI STATIONARY (OR
SLOW
SOUTHWARDS DRIFT), THEN KEEP ON TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF LOW AND MID LEVELS HIGHS. LANDFALL IS EXPECTED
BETWEEN 36 AND 48 HOURS OVER THE MALAGASY COAST BETWEEN MANANJARY AND
TOAMASINA.=
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[wyq614]

TCFA issued

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

WTXS21 PGTW 091400
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 105 NM RADIUS OF 20.1S 50.8E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY-
CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 091130Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 20.1S 50.8E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.9S
50.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.1S 50.8E, APPROXIMATELY 225 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED ORGANIZATION WITH CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING
AROUND A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). IN ADDITION, A 090532Z
ASCAT PASS INDICATES A TIGHTLY WRAPPED LLCC WITH 30 KNOT WINDS. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED BENEATH AN ANTICYCLONE
SUPPORTING LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE RADIAL OUTFLOW IN
THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A MID-LATITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE
SOUTHWEST IS SUPPORTING AN EASTWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. MAXIMUM SUS-
TAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. DUE TO HIGH SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES/OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND IMPROVED CONVECTIVE
BANDING, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
101400Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 009
WTIO30 FMEE 091822
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 3/13/20092010
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13
2.A POSITION 2010/03/09 AT 1800 UTC :
20.2S / 50.8E
(TWENTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 4 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1003 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 28 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/03/10 06 UTC: 20.6S/50.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
24H: 2010/03/10 18 UTC: 20.8S/50.1E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
36H: 2010/03/11 06 UTC: 20.6S/49.3E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
48H: 2010/03/11 18 UTC: 20.2S/48.5E OVERLAND.
60H: 2010/03/12 06 UTC: 20.1S/47.2E OVERLAND.
72H: 2010/03/12 18 UTC: DISSIPATING.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=2.0+; CI=2.0+
SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHWARDS AT ABOUT 200 KM FROM THE MALAGASY
EASTERN
COAST.
OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE RATHER GOOD WITH
IMPROVED LOW LEVELS TRADEWINDS INFLOW AND NO WINDSHEAR AND GOOD
DIVERGENCE UNDER UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURES. SYSTEM COULD REACH THE
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STAGE.
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN QUASI STATIONARY (OR
SLOW
SOUTHWARDS DRIFT), THEN KEEP ON TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF LOW AND MID LEVELS HIGHS. LANDFALL IS EXPECTED
BETWEEN 36 AND 48 HOURS OVER THE MALAGASY COAST BETWEEN MANANJARY AND
TOAMASINA.=
NNNN



Latest

[HURAKAN]

09/1430 UTC 20.1S 50.4E T2.0/2.0 90S -- Southwest Indian

30 knots

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 743
WTIO30 FMEE 100025
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/13/20092010
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13
2.A POSITION 2010/03/10 AT 0000 UTC :
20.3S / 50.1E
(TWENTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1003 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 28 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/03/10 12 UTC: 20.4S/49.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
24H: 2010/03/11 00 UTC: 20.4S/48.9E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
36H: 2010/03/11 12 UTC: 20.2S/48.1E OVERLAND.
48H: 2010/03/12 00 UTC: 19.9S/47.2E OVERLAND.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=2.5-; CI=2.5-
CONVECTION REMAINS ALWAYS QUITE FLUCTUATING, BUT SEEMS TO ORGANISE
INTO
CURVED BAND PATTERN.
SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES NOW GENERALLY WEST SOUTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS THE
MALAGASY EASTERN COAST.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE RATHER GOOD WITH
IMPROVED LOW LEVELS TRADEWINDS INFLOW AND NO WINDSHEAR AND GOOD
DIVERGENCE UNDER UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURES. SYSTEM COULD REACH THE
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STAGE.
SYSTEM SHOULD GO ON TRACKING WESTWARDS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF
LOW AND MID LEVELS HIGHS. LANDFALL IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 24 AND 36
HOURS
OVER THE MALAGASY COAST.=
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

WTXS31 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 20.3S 50.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S 50.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 20.3S 49.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 20.1S 49.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 19.7S 48.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 19.6S 47.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 20.3S 50.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (EIGHTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS CONSOLIDATED WITH DEEPENED CONVECTIVE BANDS
WRAPPING TIGHTER AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.5 FROM PGTW AND FMEE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 18S IS IN A WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AREA JUST
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF AN ANTICYCLONE AND TO THE NORTHEAST OF A TROUGH.
BOTH FEATURES ARE ENHANCING GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS EVIDENCED ON
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TC 18S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS DUE TO THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND
SLOWLY TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL INTO
MADAGASCAR BETWEEN TAU 24 AND 36 THEN DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND BY TAU 48. THE LIMITED AVAILABLE NUMERIC
MODEL IS IN OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK FORECAST WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF GFS AND GFDN. THESE MODELS TRACK THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD
AND NORTHEASTWARD, RESPECTIVELY. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS
REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 091400Z MAR 10 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTXS21 PGTW 091400 ) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 8
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z AND 110300Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 822
WTIO30 FMEE 100629
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/13/20092010
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13
2.A POSITION 2010/03/10 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.6S / 49.6E
(TWENTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES
EAST
)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 090 SE: 090 SO: 090 NO: 090
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/03/10 18 UTC: 20.7S/48.8E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
24H: 2010/03/11 06 UTC: 20.5S/48.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, OVERLAND.
36H: 2010/03/11 18 UTC: 19.7S/46.6E, MAX WIND=020KT, OVERLAND.
48H: 2010/03/12 06 UTC: 19.5S/45.2E DISSIPATING.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=2.5; CI=2.5. MSLP HAS BEEN ADJUSTED 5 HPA HIGHER THAN NORMAL TO
TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT THE HIGH ENVIRONMENTAL PRESSURE (SET TO 1013 HPA)
CONVECTION STILL REMAINS QUITE FLUCTUATING. HOWEVER WITH THE USUAL
FLARE
UP OF CONVECTION TAKING PLACE BY THE END OF THE NIGHT A CDO HAS
REDEVELOPPED. MICROWAVE IMAGERY (TRMM) SHOWS A DEFINITE IMPROVEMENT
OF
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
WITH A LANDFALL EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON THE MALAGASY COAST NEXT NIGHT
(BETWEEN MANANJARY AND MAHANORO) THE FAVOURABLE WINDOW IS LIMITED TO
THE
COMING 12 HOURS FOR AN INTENSIFICATION THAT MAY LEAD THE METEOR TO
REACH
THE MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STAGE. THE DEPRESSION IS EVOLVING IN
PHASE
WITH AN UPPER HI
GH CELL IMPLYING MINIMAL VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND RATHER GOOD UPPER
DIVERGENCE.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK ON A MORE WESTWARD DIRECTION UNDER THE
STEERING
INFLUENCE OF LOW AND MID LEVELS HIGHS.=
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

10/0830 UTC 20.8S 49.4E T2.5/2.5 90S -- Southwest Indian

35 knots

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 658
WTIO30 FMEE 101250 CCA
*************** CORRECTIVE **************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 6/13/20092010
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 13 (HUBERT)
2.A POSITION 2010/03/10 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.9S / 49.1E
(TWENTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 080 SE: 100 SO: 060 NO: 050
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/03/11 00 UTC: 21.3S/47.9E, MAX WIND=030KT , OVERLAND.
24H: 2010/03/11 12 UTC: 21.5S/46.8E OVERLAND.
36H: 2010/03/12 00 UTC: 21.6S/45.4E DISSIPATING.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=3.0-; CI=3.0-. THE MODERATE TROPICAL STORM HUBERT HAS BEEN NAMED BY
THE
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF MADAGASCAR AT 1200Z. MSLP HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED 4
HPA HIGHER THAN NORMAL TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE HIGH ENVIRONMENTAL
PRESSURE (SET TO 1013 HPA).
CONVECTION STILL REMAINS QUITE FLUCTUATING. THE CDO VISIBLE THIS
MORNING
HAS FADED AND A CURVED BANDS FEATURE TAKES PLACE. MICROWAVE IMAGERY
(TRMM
AT 0854Z) SHOWS A BEGINNING OF BANDING EYE THAT JUSTIFY THE MTS
STAGE.
WITH A LANDFALL EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON THE MALAGASY COAST NEXT NIGHT
(BETWEEN MANANJARY AND MAHANORO), THE SYSTEM COULD RAPIDLY DECREASE
BEYOND 36 HOURS.=
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Looking good

[HURAKAN]

Based on the microwave, it seems Hubert is stronger than 35 knots

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 10 MAR 2010 Time : 150000 UTC
Lat : 20:53:59 S Lon : 48:47:59 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.3 / 987.8mb/ 51.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.3 3.5 3.5

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.0mb

Center Temp : -72.8C Cloud Region Temp : -72.1C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[HURAKAN]

10/1430 UTC 20.9S 48.8E T3.5/3.5 HUBERT -- Southwest Indian

55 knots