SATL: INVEST 90Q ("ANITA")

[wyq614]

Oh my god...

[KWT]

Well its been well forecasted by the models, so it could well end up us a tropical system if it can just keep the convective burst near the center.

[wxman57]

Here's another shot of the low.

[cycloneye]

Another image this one the floater.It looks more impressive on the visible images than in the infared one.

[wxman57]

It's certainly over a lot warmer water than Grace was last year. They're not so inclined to name storms off Brazil. I remember as the hurricane was approaching the coast in 2004 that they (Brazil weather service) denied it. They said "We don't get hurricanes and we're not having one now!"

[Derek Ortt]

since NHC declared this an invest, are they now the RSMC for the area?

[drezee]

Looks pretty warm core to me...I want a name!!

[wxman57]

GFS keeps it nearly stationary for a few days then moves it out to sea to the SE.

[Cookie]

what would it be called if it where named?

[KWT]

since NHC declared this an invest, are they now the RSMC for the area?

Maybe they took it on after the Catrina incident?

Still its got time to develop a little further thats for sure...

I do wonder what it'd be called as well....hmmm...

[JonathanBelles]

I think its quite funny that the first invest to form in the atlantic is off the coast of Brazil!

[MaxiBide]

Most recent classification, though 12 hours old:

09/0615 UTC 30.4S 46.0W ST1.5 INVEST -- South Atlantic

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

Nice image

[P.K.]

since NHC declared this an invest, are they now the RSMC for the area?

I can't see where the NHC have declared this. Maybe the NRL just needed a different letter from L (I think I've seen the T suffix used for this basin before). The SSD have had the S Atlantic listed on their page for a couple of years now as well.

This is currently in Brazil's area so is down to them right now.

Edit - Ah yes I see, the NHC do have a BT file for this system.

[MaxiBide]

SOUTH AMERICA FORECAST DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1157 AM EST TUE MAR 09 2010

GFS DATA AT FTPPRD.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PUB/DATA/NCCF/COM/GFS/PROD/

NOTE: A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE LIES OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST
OF BRASIL...WITH AN ESTIMATED MINIMAL CENTRAL PRESSURE OF
1003 HPA...AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25-34KT. DEEP
CONVECTION IS WRAPPING AROUND THE CLOSED CIRCULATION...AND WITH
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 26C...THIS SYSTEM MIGHT MAKE THE
TRANSITION TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER THIS EVENING/EARLY MORNING
HOURS. AS A RESULT...POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON THE
SOUTHERN STATES OF BRASIL PERSISTS...WITH MOST INTENSE CONVECTION
EXPECTED ON THE OFFSHORE WATERS. SEVERE CONVECTION IS STILL
POSSIBLE AS THE UPPER LEVEL COLD CORE TROUGH CONTINUES TO ENHANCE
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IN THIS REGION.
MODEL COMPARISON (VALID FROM 00Z MAR 09). MODELS MADE SHORT WAVE
CORRECTIONS ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTH
ATLANTIC...AS THEY NOW FAVOR LOWER AMPLITUDE AND MORE NUMEROUS
PERTURBATIONS TO ENTER THE DOMAIN. THE ODD MODEL IS THE ECMWF...
AS IT FORESEES A VERY DEEP CLIPPER LOW TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE DRAKE PASSAGE TO TIERRA DEL FUEGO BY 108 HRS. THE
GLOBAL ENSEMBLES ARE IN DISARRAY...SHOWING HIGH VARIABILITY IN
THIS REGION AND GIVEN LITTLE SUPPORT TO THE OUTLIER SOLUTION AS
PRESENTED BY THIS MODEL.

AS INDICATED...A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE LIES OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST
OF BRASIL. ALOFT...A 200 HPA LOW OVER SOUTHERN SAO PAULO/SANTA
CATARINA ANCHORS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO MID SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA. AT LOW LEVELS...A WARM CORE 1003 HPA LOW CENTERS OFF THE
COAST...SUSTAINING ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION. THROUGH 36-48 HRS
THE UPPER CIRCULATION WILL EJECT TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AS A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS PARAGUAY/SOUTHERN
BRASIL. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION...HOWEVER...WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY WHILE MEANDERING OFF THE COAST OF BRASIL THROUGH 48-54
HRS. BY 60-72 HRS...THE LOW WILL START TO EJECT TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST AS A POLAR FRONT LIFTS ACROSS URUGUAY. AS THE SURFACE
CYCLONE EJECTS TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST IT WILL ENTER COOLER
WATERS...AND IT IS THEN FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE. MEANWHILE...THIS SYSTEM WILL SUSTAIN STRONG WINDS ALONG
THE SOUTHERN COAST OF BRASIL TO RANGE BETWEEN 25-34KT...WHILE ON
THE SERRA DO MAR THE WINDS COULD PEAK AT 50KT. MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO SUSTAIN ACCUMULATION OF 20-45MM/DAY.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE...AND IF A STRONG
ONSHORE FLOW ESTABLISHES...THEY COULD EXCEED 250MM. THE
UNCERTAINTY IS VERY HIGH...SO PLAN FOR THE WORST.
THE UPPER PATTERN ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY EVOLVE THROUGH DAY 04-05...WHEN A CELL OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS TO ESTABLISH ACROSS PERU-BOLIVIA/WESTERN
BRASIL. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS...SHORT WAVE TROUGHS OVER
PARAGUAY/SOUTHERN BRASIL WILL BE DISPLACED OFFSHORE INTO THE
ATLANTIC. AS THE RIDGE ESTABLISHES...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS
NORTHERN BOLIVIA-PERU AND AMAZONAS/RONDONIA IN WESTERN BRASIL
WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE AND BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH MAXIMA OF 20-
40MM/DAY. OTHER ACTIVITY IS TO BUILD ALONG A LINE FROM
BAHIA/MINAS GERAIS TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS PARA TO NORTHERN
AMAZONAS/SOUTHERN COLOMBIA...WITH MAXIMA OF 25-50MMD/AY EARLY
THIS PERIOD...TO THEN WANE TO 20-35MM/DAY BY MID CYCLE. ACTIVITY
WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH DAY 05.

ON THE SOUTHERN CONE...A MOVED INLAND TO NORTHERN PATAGONIA/LA
PAMPA IN ARGENTINA. A SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER URUGUAY/WESTERN
ATLANTIC IS BLOCKING THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM. IT
IS TO INITIALLY DRIFT EAST...BUT BY 36-60 HRS AS THE RIDGE
PATTERN WEAKENS IT IS THEN EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE...THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE
FRONT ACROSS LA PAMPA/BUENOS AIRES PROVINCE TO CENTRAL
ARGENTINA...WITH BOUNDARY TO DRIFT NORTH INTO RIO DE LA
PLATA/CORDOBA THROUGH 48-60 HRS. HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED OVER BUENOS AIRES AND LA PAMPA THROUGH 36 HRS...WITH
MODELS SHOWING LOCALIZED MAXIMA OF 100-150MM. BUT FOR THE MOST
PART...WE EXPECT ACCUMULATION OF 20-45MM/DAY.

THE MODELS THEN SHOW SUCCESSIVE SHORT WAVE PERTURBATIONS
STREAMING ACROSS SOUTHERN CHILE/PATAGONIA IN ARGENTINA DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...TO FAVOR PROGRESSIVE SURFACE FRONTS AND
STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS. CONVECTION...HOWEVER...WILL LIMIT TO
ISLA DE CHILOE AND SOUTHWARD...WITH MAXIMA OF 05-10MM/DAY THROUGH
60 HRS.

BY MID CYCLE...A BLOCKING RIDGE PATTERN IS TO ESTABLISH OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. THE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THIS
EVOLUTION...BUT DIVERGE ON INTENSITY/TIMING OF SHORT WAVE
PERTURBATIONS TO EJECT UNDER THIS RIDGE AND FEED INTO A BROAD
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE BROAD TROUGH IS TO DEVELOP
OFF THE COAST OF ARGENTINA AND IT IS TO EXTEND BETWEEN 70W-25W
AND TO THE SOUTH OF 30S. SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS TO REMAIN OFF THE
COAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WITH POLAR FRONTS TO LIFT NORTH
ACROSS PATAGONIA TO LA PAMPA IN ARGENTINA THROUGH DAYS 04-05.

FLORES...SENAMHI (PERU)
LLANQUE...SENAMHI (BOLIVIA)
DAVISON...HPC (USA)

[cycloneye]

Its sitting on 24C sst's so Subtropical may be the way to describe it.

[P.K.]

since NHC declared this an invest, are they now the RSMC for the area?

Maybe they took it on after the Catrina incident?

Still its got time to develop a little further thats for sure...

I do wonder what it'd be called as well....hmmm...

I've checked the 2009 operation manual (The most recent one) and it says:

The area of responsibility of RSMC Miami for issuing tropical and subtropical cyclone
advisories is the North Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico, North Pacific Ocean
eastward from 140ºW.

The latest bulletin from Brazil has a 1000hPa low at 29S 49W as of 12Z.

[cycloneye]

18:00 UTC Best Track

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

SL, 90, 2010030918, , BEST, 0, 301S, 484W, 30, 1000, LO

[HURAKAN]

00:00 UTC Best Track

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

SL, 90, 2010031000, , BEST, 0, 298S, 482W, 35, 1003, LO