SPO: TROPICAL CYCLONE TOMAS (14F/19P)

[Sheronz]

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 09/2223 UTC 2010 UTC.

[...]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 14F NEAR 13.5S 171W [1006HPA] AT 092100 UTC SLOW
MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON IR/VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. SST
AROUND 30 DEGREE CELSIUS.
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR LOW. THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO
A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE. THE
EC GLOBAL WEATHER MODEL EXPECT 14F TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWESTWARDS AND
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY.

[Sheronz]

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 10/0900 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 14F NEAR 11.5S 170.0W [1005HPA] AT 100600 UTC
SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND THE
LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGERY. SST AROUND 30 DEGREE CELSIUS. VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR LOW.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE. THE EC GLOBAL WEATHER MODEL
EXPECT 14F TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWESTWARDS AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY.

NO OTHER TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE AREA.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Sheronz]

ABPW10 PGTW 101630
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/101630Z-110600ZMAR2010//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.4S 172.4W,
APPROXIMATELY 200 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING
AROUND A DEVELOPING LLCC. A 101251Z AMSRE 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWS FORMATIVE BANDING BEGINING TO WRAP INTO A DEVELOPING LLCC
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM
IS LOCATED IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH TROUGHING THAT HAS BUILT
IN TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
OBSERVATIONS FROM AMERICAN SAMOA AT 101550Z SHOW WINDS OUT OF THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 16 KNOTS AND SLP AT 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS FAIR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//
NNNN

[Sheronz]

25 KTS / 1004mb

[KWT]

Starting to look pretty decent now, you can see the wrapping features already starting to develop around the center of the system.

[HURAKAN]

I want to give a shout out to the American Samoa Department of Homeland Security, EOC 24/7 Communications Center. They always follow these systems in Storm2k and love our work! Thanks for your nice words!

[HURAKAN]

a TCFA could be issued in the next few hours

[HURAKAN]

10/2022 UTC 10.6S 173.2W T1.5/1.5 97P -- Southeast Pacific

25 knots

[Sheronz]

30 KTS / 1000mb

[Sheronz]

WTPS22 PGTW 102230
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
[...]
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.4S
172.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.2S 173.4W, APPROXIMATELY 245 NM
NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES CONSOLIDATION OF DEEP CONVECTION ABOUT A
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
THROUGHOUT THE SAMOAN ISLANDS GENERALLY RANGES FROM 1006 TO 1007 MB
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT 24-HOUR PRESSURE TRENDS. THE DISTURBANCE HAS
CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN DESPITE MARGINAL CONDITIONS ALOFT. A TROUGH
THAT HAD BUILT INTO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM LESS THAN 12 HOURS AGO
IS CURRENTLY SUPPRESSING CLOUD GROWTH IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
HOWEVER, A DIFFLUENT SOURCE REGION TO THE NORTHEAST IS PROVIDING
FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD VENTING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.

[Sheronz]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A1 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 11/0003 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14F CENTRE 1002 HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.0S 173.9W
AT 102100 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS/GOES EIR AND VIS
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. DEPRESSION MOVING SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 11
KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 20 KNOTS.

ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED PAST 24 HRS. CONVECTION INCREASED OVER THE
CENTRE OVERNIGHT BUT HAVE WARMED PAST 3 HRS DUE TO DIURNAL VARIATION.
THE SYSTEM LIES OVER A WEAKLY SHEARED AND DIFFLUENT ENVIROMENT. SST
30C. SYSTEM STEERED WEST-SOUTHWEST BY NORTHEAST DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.3 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING DT=2.0.
MET AND PT AGREE, THUS T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON
WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK AND INTENSIFICATION.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 110900 UTC 11.1S 174.9W MOV W AT 05 KT WITH 25 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

AT 24 HRS VALID AT 112100 UTC 11.4S 176.1W MOV WSW AT 06 KT WITH 30
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 120900 UTC 12.2S 177.5W MOV WSW AT 08 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.

AT 48 HRS VALID AT 122100 UTC 13.3S 178.9W MOV WSW AT 08 KT WITH 40
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14F
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 110230 UTC.

[Sheronz]

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert from JTWC



ABPW10 PGTW 110000
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/110000Z-110600ZMAR2010//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/102151MAR2010//
REF/B/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/102221MAR2010//
NARR/REF A AND REF B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERTS.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
[...]
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.4S
172.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.2S 173.4W, APPROXIMATELY 245 NM
NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES CONSOLIDATION OF DEEP CONVECTION ABOUT A
DEVELOPING LLCC. SEA LEVEL PRESSURE THROUGHOUT THE SAMOAN ISLANDS
GENERALLY RANGES FROM 1006 TO 1007 MB WITH NO SIGNIFICANT 24-HOUR
PRESSURE TRENDS. THE DISTURBANCE HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN DESPITE
MARGINAL CONDITIONS ALOFT. A TROUGH THAT HAD BUILT INTO THE SOUTH OF
THE SYSTEM LESS THAN 12 HOURS AGO IS CURRENTLY SUPPRESSING CLOUD
GROWTH IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. HOWEVER, A DIFFLUENT SOURCE
REGION TO THE NORTHEAST IS PROVIDING FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD VENTING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. SEE REF
B (WTPS22 PGTW 102230) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//
NNNN

[Sheronz]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A2 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 11/0206 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14F CENTRE 1002 HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.2S 174.3W
AT 110000 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS/GOES EIR AND VIS
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. DEPRESSION MOVING SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 10
KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 20 KNOTS.

ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED PAST 24 HRS. THE SYSTEM LIES OVER A WEAKLY
SHEARED AND DIFFLUENT ENVIROMENT. SST 30C. SYSTEM STEERED
WEST-SOUTHWEST BY NORTHEAST DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW. DVORAK ANALYSIS
BASED ON 0.35 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING DT=2.0. MET AND PT AGREE,
THUS T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK
AND INTENSIFICATION.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 111200 UTC 11.3S 175.3W MOV W AT 05 KT WITH 25 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 24 HRS VALID AT 120000 UTC 11.8S 176.6W MOV WSW AT 07 KT WITH 30
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 121200 UTC 12.5S 178.0W MOV WSW AT 08 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 48 HRS VALID AT 130000 UTC 13.6S 179.1W MOV SW AT 08 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14F
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 110830 UTC.

[HurricaneBill]

The next name is "Tomas".

[Sheronz]

Looking good.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A3 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 11/0810 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14F CENTRE 1002 HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.0S 174.7W
AT 110600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS/GOES EIR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION. DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST 07 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 20 KNOTS.

ORGANISATION GRADUALLY IMPROVING. PRIMARY BANDS TO EAST AND WEST
CONSOLIDATING AND BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND LLCC. CONVECTION ALONG
BOTH BANDS COOLING. LLCLS EXPOSED TO SOUTHWEST OF LLCC IN LAST VIS
IMAGERY DUE SOUTHWEST SHEAR. SYSTEM LIES IN A DIFFLUENT ENVIROMENT.
SST 30C. OUTFLOW GOOD TO EAST AND NORTH AND DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE.
SYSTEM STEERED WEST-SOUTHWEST BY NORTHEAST DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.35 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING DT=2.0.
MET AND PT AGREE, THUS T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON
WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK AND INTENSIFICATION.

FORECASTS :
AT 12HRS VALID AT 111800 UTC 11.3S 175.9W MOV W 05 KT WITH 25 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24HRS VALID AT 120600 UTC 11.9S 177.2W MOV WSW 07 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36HRS VALID AT 121800 UTC 12.7S 178.3W MOV WSW 08 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 48HRS VALID AT 130600 UTC 14.0S 179.2W MOV SW 08 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14F
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 111430 UTC.

[HURAKAN]

11/0830 UTC 10.6S 174.4W T2.0/2.0 97P -- Southeast Pacific

30 knots

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A4 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 11/1355 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14F CENTRE 999 HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.9S 175.5W
AT 111200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS/GOES EIR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION. DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS.
CLOCKWISE WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS BETWEEN 60 TO 150 NAUTICAL MILES OF
CENTRE IN SECTORS FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST
THENCE TO SOUTHWEST.

ORGANISATION IMPROVING STEADILY. PRIMARY BANDS TO EAST AND WEST
CONSOLIDATING AND BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND LLCC. DEEP CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ABOUT LLCC REGION. SYSTEM LIES IN A DIFFLUENT ENVIROMENT.
SST 30C. OUTFLOW GOOD TO EAST AND NORTH AND DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE.
SYSTEM STEERED WEST-SOUTHWEST BY NORTHEAST DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.4 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING DT=2.5.
MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT, THUS T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS. GLOBAL
MODELS AGREE ON WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK AND INTENSIFICATION.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 120000 UTC 11.2S 176.7W MOV W AT 05 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 121200 UTC 11.8S 177.9W MOV WSW AT 07 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 130000 UTC 12.7S 178.8W MOV WSW AT 08 KT WITH 40
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 131200 UTC 14.0S 179.6W MOV SW AT 08 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14F
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 112030 UTC.