SPO: TROPICAL CYCLONE ULUI (13F/20P)

[Sheronz]

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 09/2223 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 13F NEAR 12S 167E [1003HPA] AT 092100 UTC SLOW
MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON IR/VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. SST
AROUND 30 DEGREE CELSIUS.
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR LOW. THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO
A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

NO OTHER TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE AREA.

Potential was "low" at 22:23utc, but I think we can say it's low to moderate now.

[Sheronz]

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 10/0900 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13F NEAR 13.5S 169.5E [1003HPA] AT 100600 UTC
SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND THE
LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGERY. SST AROUND 30 DEGREE CELSIUS.
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR LOW. THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO
A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE.

NO OTHER TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE AREA.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Sheronz]

ABPW10 PGTW 101630
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/101630Z-110600ZMAR2010//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 14.4S 168.4E,
APPROXIMATELY 105 NM EAST OF VANUATU. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 100741Z 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATE INCREASED
CONVECTION AND FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEVELOPING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THAT THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WITH
WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (SLP) IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Latest visible

[Sheronz]

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert from JTWC



WTPS22 PGTW 102230
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.1S 172.8W TO 12.4S 176.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 101800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.2S 173.4W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.4S
172.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.2S 173.4W, APPROXIMATELY 245 NM
NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES CONSOLIDATION OF DEEP CONVECTION ABOUT A
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
THROUGHOUT THE SAMOAN ISLANDS GENERALLY RANGES FROM 1006 TO 1007 MB
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT 24-HOUR PRESSURE TRENDS. THE DISTURBANCE HAS
CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN DESPITE MARGINAL CONDITIONS ALOFT. A TROUGH
THAT HAD BUILT INTO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM LESS THAN 12 HOURS AGO
IS CURRENTLY SUPPRESSING CLOUD GROWTH IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
HOWEVER, A DIFFLUENT SOURCE REGION TO THE NORTHEAST IS PROVIDING
FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD VENTING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
112230Z.//
NNNN

[Sheronz]

ABPW10 PGTW 110000
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/110000Z-110600ZMAR2010//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/102151MAR2010//
REF/B/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/102221MAR2010//
NARR/REF A AND REF B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERTS.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.4S
168.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.6S 167.8E, APPROXIMATELY 70 NM EAST
OF VANUATU. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING AROUND A DEVELOPING
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT 101800Z
FROM INDOTRANS MAKASSAR, SOLA VANUA VANUATU (NVSC), AND PEKOA
AIRPORT (NVSS) SHOW A DECREASE IN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE RANGING FROM
1.5 TO 3 MB WITHIN THE LAST 24 HOURS. A 101752Z SSMIS 91 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING FROM THE
SOUTHEAST INTO A BROADLY DEFINED LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
SEE REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 102200) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. DUE TO INCREASED
CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC AND DECREASING SURFACE PRESSURE
OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE SYSTEM CENTER, THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
UPGRADED TO GOOD.
[...]
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

11/0230 UTC 14.3S 166.8E T2.0/2.0 98P -- Southwest Pacific

30 knots

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13F ANALYSED CENTRE [998HPA] NEAR 14.5S 168.5E AT
110600 UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION FAIR BASED ON IR/VIS IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 30 DEGREE CELSIUS.

CONVECTION REMIANS PERSISTENT IN THE LAST 12 HOURS. ORGANISATION
REMAINS FAIRLY GOOD. SYSTEM LIES ALONG A MONSOON TROUGH AND UNDER AN
UPPER RIDGE, IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVING IT WESTWARDS OVER
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION. POTENTIAL FOR THIS
SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.

[HURAKAN]

11/0830 UTC 14.3S 166.4E T2.0/2.0 98P -- Southwest Pacific

30 knots

[KWT]

This isn't looking bad either, looks like the SPO is starting to fire up again. The last few ECM runs have taken this towards E.Australia as a very strong cyclone so this one will need very close attention IMO...

[cycloneye]

WTPS32 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TWENTY) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/102151Z MAR 10//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TWENTY) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 14.7S 166.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7S 166.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 14.3S 165.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 13.9S 164.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 13.5S 164.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 13.2S 163.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 13.1S 161.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 13.4S 160.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 14.3S 159.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 14.6S 166.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (TWENTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 20 NM WEST
OF VANUATU, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 111444Z AMSU
MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATE CONSOLIDATION OF DEEP CONVECTION AROUND A
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING
IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS FROM PEKOA AIRPORT ON VANUATU (NVSS), WHICH SHOWS SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE AT 998 MB AND WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 30
KNOTS. IN ADDITION, DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 30 TO 35 KNOTS FROM
PGTW, KNES, AND PHFO. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM
IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITH GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR ALOFT. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWEST IN THE
EARLY TAUS, HOWEVER, IN THE LATER TAUS THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
SLOW AND TURN SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT ENCOUNTERS A COMPETING
STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND INTERACTS WITH AN APPROACHING
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS FORECAST WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WBAR, WHICH ERRONEOUSLY RECURVES
THE SYSTEM SHARPLY TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND
CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 102200Z MAR 10 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 102200 )MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 111800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z AND 122100Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (NINETEEN) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[cycloneye]

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13F
6:00 AM FST March 12 2010
======================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 13 (998 hPa) located at 14.7S 166.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. Position POOR based on hourly GMS/GOES enhanced infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports. The depression is reported as moving slowly.

Organization has improved over the last 24 hours. The system lies in a moderately sheared environment. Sea surface temperature is around 30C.

Dvorak analysis based on 0.35 wrap on LOG10 spiral yielding DT 2.0

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS

EC global model expected the system to move west-northwest and intensify.

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 14.6S 164.8E - 35 knots (TROPICAL DEPRESSION)
24 HRS: 14.0S 163.1E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 12.8S 159.9E - 60 knots (CAT 2)

[KWT]

This system is looking pretty good righ now, the 12z ECM develops a total beast out of this system (probably cat-4/5 SS scale!) before smashing ino the east coast of Australia, though interestingly fairly far south for such a powerful system.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[KWT]

Interesting to see the JWTC recurving this system quite a bit before Austrailia, I've got a feeling though that it will shift somewhat further west as time goes on, I think the ECM probably is going to be rather close to what will actually happen.

[HURAKAN]

Latest microwave

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B01 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 11/2112 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13F CENTRE [998 HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7S
166.0E AT 111800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SLOW. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE
AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS.

ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE SYSTEM LIES IN
A MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
SST AROUND 30C. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.35 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING DT=2, MET AND PT AGREE, THUS T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HOURS. EC
GLOBAL MODEL EXPECTED THE SYSTEM TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AND
INTENSIFY.


FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 120600 UTC 14.6S 164.8E MOV W AT 06 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 24 HRS VALID AT 121800 UTC 14.0S 163.1E MOV WNW AT 08 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 130600 UTC 13.3S 161.4E MOV WNW AT 09 KT WITH 45
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 48 HRS VALID AT 131800 UTC 12.8S 159.9E MOV WNW AT 08 KT WITH 60
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13F
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 120300 UTC.