SIO: TROPICAL DEPRESSION EX-IMANI (21S)

[wyq614]

Initial position: 4.1S 88.7E, EC develops it as a severe cyclone.

[HURAKAN]

Looking better

[cycloneye]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.4S 85.9E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.5S 89.0E, APPROXIMATELY 540 NM WEST-NORTHWEST
OF COCOS ISLAND. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE PERSISTENT OVER A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT HAS CONTINUED TO ORGANIZE OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. SURFACE CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES NEAR 29 CELSIUS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT AN
ANTICYCLONE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC IS CAUSING CONVEC-
TION TO BE SHEARED TO THE WEST, WITH MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS OF
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. BASED ON THE CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, FAVOR-
ABLE SURFACE CONDITIONS, AND VWS SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

21/1900 UTC 8.3S 88.5E T1.5/1.5 90S -- Southwest Indian

25 knots

[HURAKAN]

Latest - NRL : 30 knots

[HURAKAN]

WTXS21 PGTW 220230
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
145 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.6S 89.8E TO 15.1S 87.2E WITH-
IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY IS-
SUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
212330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 9.9S
89.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.5S 89.0E, IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 9.9S 89.4E, APPROXIMATELY 460 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF
COCOS ISLAND. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
212326Z SSMI PASS SHOW A WELL ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH A DEEP BAND OF CONVECTION WRAPPING FROM THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY INTO THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. SURFACE
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 29
CELSIUS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT AN ANTICYCLONE TO THE
EAST OF THE LLCC IS PROVIDING GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW WITH VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) DECREASING OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS TO A MODERATE
LEVEL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB.
BASED ON THE CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, FAVORABLE SURFACE
CONDITIONS, AND VWS SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
230230Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Crostorm]

[HURAKAN]

Nice image, Crostorm. Great seeing both storms in the same image.

[P.K.]

This is now 14R. Also of interest is that this forecast goes out to 120 hours instead of the usual 72 hours!

WTIO30 FMEE 221241


RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/14/20092010
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 14

2.A POSITION 2010/03/22 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.9S / 89.9E
(TEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES
EAST
)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/03/23 00 UTC: 12.0S/89.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
24H: 2010/03/23 12 UTC: 13.2S/88.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
36H: 2010/03/24 00 UTC: 14.0S/87.3E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
48H: 2010/03/24 12 UTC: 15.4S/86.3E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
60H: 2010/03/25 00 UTC: 16.8S/85.6E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
72H: 2010/03/25 12 UTC: 18.6S/85.2E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=2.0+ ; CI=2.0+
SYSTEM DISPLAYS A SHEAR PATTERN WITH CONVECTION ORGANIZING IN THE
WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE. ACTUALLY, EASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR LIMITS ITS
DEVELOPMENT. IT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHWARDS.
OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS, SOUTHWARDS THEN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK IS
EXPECTED AND SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN UNDER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH A
WEAKENING SHEAR AND RATHER GOOD DIVERGENCE. LOW LEVEL INFLOWS REMAIN
GOOD
POLARWARDS AND SHOULD BE BETTER EQAUTORWARDS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD
CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY
WITH THIS FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS.
BEYOND 72 HOURS, IT IS EXPECTED TO REACH LATITUDE 20 SOUTH WITH
NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONSTRAINT STARTING TO IMPINGE ON THE SYSTEM
WHICH
WILL ALSO ENCOUNTER COOLER WATERS.

FORECAST POSITIONS BEYOND TAU 72H:
096H: 2010/03/26 12 UTC: 21.5S/87.5E, MAX WIND=40KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL
STORM.
120H: 2010/03/27 12 UTC: 22.1S/86.3E, MAX WIND=25KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE
.=

[Crostorm]

Nice image, Crostorm. Great seeing both storms in the same image.

Thanks Hurakan
here is link http://www.scsebnic.net/SITO_PAN/PAN.htm

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

22/1430 UTC 11.1S 89.4E T2.0/2.0 90S -- Southwest Indian

30 knots

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 073
WTIO30 FMEE 221833
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/14/20092010
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14
2.A POSITION 2010/03/22 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.6S / 89.5E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL FIVE
DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 140 SE: SO: 205 NO: 195
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/03/23 06 UTC: 12.6S/88.9E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
24H: 2010/03/23 18 UTC: 13.6S/87.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
36H: 2010/03/24 06 UTC: 14.7S/86.9E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
48H: 2010/03/24 18 UTC: 16.1S/86.0E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
60H: 2010/03/25 06 UTC: 17.6S/85.4E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
72H: 2010/03/25 18 UTC: 19.3S/85.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=2.5- ; CI=2.5-
DVORAK ANALYSIS GIVE DT AT 2.5 (CURVED BAND AT 0.4 OVER THE RECENT IR
IMAGERY), MET AT 2.0 AND PT AT 2.5. FT BASED ON PT.
ASCAT PASS AT 15:13Z SHOW SOME BELIEVABLE 30 KT WINDS IN THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE AND THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT (35-40 KT WIND IN THE
NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT UNDER DEEP CONVECTION SEEMS NON BELIEVABLE ...)
BASED ON THE PREVIOUS ELEMENTS, SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO THE TROPICAL
DEPRESSION STATUS.
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND
JUST SOUTH OF THE DEEP (UP TO 500 HPA) WESTNORTHWESTERLY MONSOON FLOW
THAT IS ESTABLISHED BETWEEN EQUATOR AND 5S. OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS,
MID
-LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING TO THE EAST OF SYSTEM AS A WEAKNESS REMAINS
IN
THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE MAINLY EAST OF 70E IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL (DESPITE, THAT
CLOSE
TO THE SURFACE, RIDGE EXTENDS QUASI OVER THE WHOLE BASSIN). WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, A MID-LAT TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF 20S AND ALONG 80E
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ENHANCING THIS WEAKNESS.
CONSEQUENTLY, SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINU ON ITS POLEWARDS TRACK ...
AVAILABLE
DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THAT AND CURRENT
FORECAST
IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.
SYSTEM SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY PASS UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH A
WEAKENING SHEAR AND RATHER GOOD DIVERGENCE. LOW LEVEL INFLOWS REMAIN
GOOD
POLARWARDS AND SHOULD BE BETTER EQUATORWARDS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD
INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE WITH THIS FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS.
THURSDAY, INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS NEAR 20S
SHOULD START A WEAKENING TREND ON THIS SYSTEM. SO IT HAS A 48 TO 60H
WINDOW FOR INTENSIFICATION.
AT DAY 4 AND DAY 5, STEERING FLOW SHOULD PASS ON THE LOWER LEVEL FOR
A
WEAKENING SYSTEM AND GIVE A MORE WESTWARDS COMPONENT TO THE TRACK
FORECAST POSITIONS BEYOND TAU 72H:
096H: 2010/03/26 18 UTC: 21.8S/87.4E, MAX WIND=30KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION.
120H: 2010/03/27 18 UTC: 22.2S/85.6E, MAX WIND=25KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE
.=
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (TWENTYONE) WARNING NR 001
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/220221Z MAR 10//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTXS31 PGTW 222100
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (TWENTYONE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 11.5S 89.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.5S 89.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 12.7S 89.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 13.9S 88.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 15.2S 88.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 16.7S 87.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 19.0S 87.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 22.0S 88.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 24.9S 88.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 11.8S 89.2E.

THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 220221Z
MAR 10 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 220230 )
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z AND 232100Z.
//
BT
#0001
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Latest - NRL : 45 knots

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 743
WTIO30 FMEE 230628
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/14/20092010
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14
2.A POSITION 2010/03/23 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.6S / 88.7E
(TWELVE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL SEVEN
DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 4 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 140 SE: SO: 205 NO: 195
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 1000
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/03/23 18 UTC: 13.4S/88.0E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
24H: 2010/03/24 06 UTC: 14.4S/86.8E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
36H: 2010/03/24 18 UTC: 15.8S/85.7E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
48H: 2010/03/25 06 UTC: 17.4S/85.2E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
60H: 2010/03/25 18 UTC: 18.8S/85.2E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
72H: 2010/03/26 06 UTC: 19.9S/85.0E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=2.5- ; CI=2.5-
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BEEN RELOCATED THANKS TO LAST NIGHT
MICROWAVE IMAGERY (ESPECIALLY 23/0022Z TRMM SWATH) AND SEEMS TO HAVE
SLOWLY DRIFTED SOUTHWESTWARDS WITHIN THE LAST 12 HOURS.
RECENT SCATTEROMETRY (ASCAT 023/0400Z AND ERS 23/0426Z) CONFIRMED THE
PRESENT ESTIMATED INTENSITY.
SYSTEM IS STILL ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE.
OVER
THE NEXT THREE DAYS AND ACCORDING LATEST NWP OUTPUTS FROM 12Z,
SYNOPTIC
PATTERN REMAINS BASICALLY THE SAME: MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING TO
THE
EAST OF SYSTEM AS A WEAKNESS REMAINS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE MAINLY
EAST
OF 70E IN
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL (DESPITE, THAT CLOSE TO THE SURFACE, RIDGE
EXTENDS
QUASI OVER THE WHOLE BASSIN). WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FOR A QUASI 24H
PERIOD
, A MID-LAT TROUGH IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF 20S AND ALONG 80E
...
HOWEVER ECMWF DETERMINISTIC MODEL LATEST OUTPUT SHOW A LESS DEEPER
TRANSIENT MID
-LAT TROUGH THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. TC TRACK FROM THIS MODEL IS
NOW
MORE TO THE WEST (MAINLY AFTER TAU 36) AS SYSTEM APPEARS LESS
INFLUENCED
BY THE TROUGH. OTHERS NWP MODELS DO NOT REFLECT THIS TREND AND REMAIN
TO
THE EAST ... CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE OF THE AVERAGE TRACK JUST
A
LITTLE BIT
TO THE WEST COMPARE TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
FORECAST INTENSITY HAS NOT CHANGED: THURSDAY, INCREASING
NORTHWESTERLY
SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS NEAR 20S SHOULD START A WEAKENING TREND ON
THIS
SYSTEM. SO IT HAS A 48H WINDOW FOR INTENSIFICATION.
AT DAY 4 AND DAY 5, STEERING FLOW SHOULD PASS ON THE LOWER LEVEL FOR
A
WEAKENING SYSTEM AND GIVE A MORE WESTWARDS COMPONENT TO THE TRACK
FORECAST POSITIONS BEYOND TAU 72H:
096H: 2010/03/27 06 UTC: 21.4S/84.0E, MAX WIND=25KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE
.
120H: 2010/03/28 06 UTC: 22.5S/82.5E, MAX WIND=25KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE
.=
NNNN