WPAC: EX TROPICAL STORM OMAIS

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cycloneye
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WPAC: EX TROPICAL STORM OMAIS

#1 Postby cycloneye » Fri Mar 19, 2010 6:43 am

Image

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.4N
148.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3.0N 155.1E, APPROXIMATELY 320 NM
SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
CURVED BANDING AROUND A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED BENEATH
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AN
OBSERVATION IN THE VICINITY IS REPORTING HIGH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 29 DEGREES CELSIUS, FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. DUE TO
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND HIGH SST, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
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#2 Postby StormingB81 » Fri Mar 19, 2010 7:39 am

Looks like we MAY start our season early here in the WPAC but how warm are the waters. are they even warm enough?
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#3 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Mar 19, 2010 9:16 am

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#4 Postby cycloneye » Fri Mar 19, 2010 1:13 pm

Looks like is slowly organizing.

Image
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#5 Postby oaba09 » Fri Mar 19, 2010 9:50 pm

Weird having invests during summertime.....
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#6 Postby cycloneye » Sat Mar 20, 2010 6:33 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 3.0N
155.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3.9N 148.5E, APPROXIMATELY 295 NM
SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A DISTINCT YET BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING WITH SPOTTY DEEP
CONVECTION FLANKING THE OUTER PERIPHERY. A 200345Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWS WEAK AND LIMITED BANDING STRUGGLING TO WRAP INTO THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A PARTIAL 191118Z ASCAT PASS DOES
NOT REVEAL A LLCC, BUT RATHER PRONOUNCED TROUGHING WITH STRONG
CONVERGENT FLOW WITHIN THE WESTERN HALF. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
HAS DEGRADED SOMEWHAT WITH THE NORTHWARD MIGRATION OF THE RIDGE AXIS
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS ELEVATED IN
RESPONSE. FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT PERSISTS NONETHELESS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS FAIR.

Image
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#7 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Mar 20, 2010 3:09 pm

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Looking good
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#8 Postby cycloneye » Sat Mar 20, 2010 5:47 pm

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert

WTPN21 PGTW 202300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
210 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 4.3N 146.7E TO 7.1N 138.7E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 202030Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 4.6N 145.6E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 3.9N
148.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.6N 145.6E, APPROXIMATELY 530 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF YAP. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
DEEP CONVECTION HAS STARTED TO QUICKLY DEVELOP OVER AN ORGANIZING
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 202014Z SSMI 37H MICROWAVE
PASS SHOWED A DEEP BAND OF CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
LLCC WAS STARTING TO WRAP TOWARDS THE CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS THE LLCC IS UNDER A REGION OF FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF AN ANTICYCLONE. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
LOW TO MODERATE (15 KNOTS) AND IS HELPING TO ENHANCE THE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL FOR THE LLCC. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE/OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT ARE FAVORABLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LLCC AND WILL CONTINUE
TO ENHANCE THE CURRENT DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. BASED ON THE DEVE-
LOPING DEEP CONVECTION AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, THE POTEN-
TIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.

Image
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W=Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert issued

#9 Postby cycloneye » Sat Mar 20, 2010 6:21 pm

Special Statement by NWS Guam

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

000
WWPQ80 PGUM 202153
SPSPQ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
753 AM CHST SUN MAR 21 2010

PMZ161-171-212000-
KOROR PALAU-YAP-
753 AM CHST SUN MAR 21 2010

...DEVELOPING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MOVING TOWARD YAP AND PALAU...

A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTH OF GUAM NEAR
5N145E IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH AND INTENSIFYING.
BASED ON ITS CURRENT MOVEMENT AND FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE...THIS
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF YAP AND
PALAU OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...WITH THE CORE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM PASSING BETWEEN YAP AND BABELTHUAP IN THE REPUBLIC
OF PALAU AROUND TUESDAY. RESIDENTS OF YAP AND PALAU CAN EXPECT
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THIS DISTURBANCE PASSES BY. WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT YAP AND PALAU.

RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE MOVEMENT AND DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS FROM THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...AVAILABLE MEDIA SOURCES...THE INTERNET...
AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO. PRECAUTIONARY MEASURES TO SECURE SMALL BOATS
AND ANY PERSONAL PROPERTY THAT MAY BE EASILY BLOWN AROUND IS ADVISED.

RESIDENTS SHOULD REFER TO THEIR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICE
FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL UPDATE
THIS STATEMENT AS NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.

$$

MUNDELL

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#10 Postby StormingB81 » Sat Mar 20, 2010 10:23 pm

Wonder if this will amount to anyting some weather agencies think it wont be too much..anyone know where i can find ocean temps?
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#11 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Mar 20, 2010 11:07 pm

Image

Very large system. Will take some time to develop
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#12 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Mar 20, 2010 11:09 pm

21/0230 UTC 4.6N 145.8E T1.5/1.5 98W -- West Pacific

25 knots
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#13 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Mar 21, 2010 12:30 am

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#14 Postby StormingB81 » Sun Mar 21, 2010 12:36 am

Interesting!
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#15 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Mar 21, 2010 12:52 am

JMA : LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 05N 146E WEST SLOWLY.
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#16 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Mar 21, 2010 3:32 am

Wow already? Its only March...
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#17 Postby oaba09 » Sun Mar 21, 2010 4:17 am

This thing actually has a chance...

ECMWF forecast for 3/26/2010

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#18 Postby cycloneye » Sun Mar 21, 2010 6:44 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 3.9N
148.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.6N 145.6E, APPROXIMATELY 530 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF YAP. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
DEEP CONVECTION HAS STARTED TO QUICKLY DEVELOP OVER AN ORGANIZING
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 202014Z SSMI 37H MICROWAVE
PASS SHOWED A DEEP BAND OF CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
LLCC WAS STARTING TO WRAP TOWARDS THE CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS THE LLCC IS UNDER A REGION OF FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF AN ANTICYCLONE. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
LOW TO MODERATE (15 KNOTS) AND IS HELPING TO ENHANCE THE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL FOR THE LLCC. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE/OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT ARE FAVORABLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LLCC AND WILL CONTINUE
TO ENHANCE THE CURRENT DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. SEE REF A (WTPN21
PGTW 202300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. BASED ON THE DEVELOPING DEEP
CONVECTION AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS GOOD.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#19 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Mar 21, 2010 8:17 am

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Re:

#20 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Mar 21, 2010 8:18 am

Kingarabian wrote:Wow already? Its only March...


In the Western Pacific the typhoon season goes year-long but its most active during the summer months.
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