GOC: EX-TROPICAL CYCLONE PAUL (22P) - Final Advisory

[HURAKAN]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

Tropical Cyclone 3 day Outlook for Northern Region, including the Gulf of
Carpentaria

Tropical Cyclone 3 day Outlook for Northern Region, including the Gulf of
Carpentaria

Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 2:15 pm CST Thursday 25 March 2010

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A weak tropical low is located in the Arafura Sea northeast of Nhulunbuy, near
the West Papua coast. The low is expected to move closer to the north coast of
the NT and develop further over the next few days as the monsoon trough becomes
better organised.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone being in the Northern Region on:

Friday: Low,
Saturday: Low,
Sunday: Moderate.

NOTE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day...
Very low: less than 5%, Low: 5% to 20%, Moderate: 20% to 50%, High: Over 50%.


The area of coverage for this outlook is the Ocean area between 125E and 142E,
including the Gulf of Carpentaria.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone.



DARWIN Regional Forecasting Centre.

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TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 2
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 11:00 pm CST Friday 26 March 2010

A Cyclone WATCH continues for a developing tropical low for coastal areas and
island communities from Cape Don to Nhulunbuy.

At 9:30 pm CST a Tropical Low was estimated to be 260 kilometres north northwest
of Maningrida and 440 kilometres northwest of Nhulunbuy and moving west
southwest at 11 kilometres per hour.

There is the possibility of a Tropical Cyclone developing but GALES are not
expected in coastal areas within the next 24 hours, however gales could develop
later.

Details of Tropical Low at 9:30 pm CST:
.Centre located near...... 9.8 degrees South 133.6 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 110 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 11 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 1005 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 5:00 am CST Saturday 27 March.

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and QLD-1300 659 212

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

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AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.4S 136.9E,
APPROXIMATELY 360 NM EAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. RECENT ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF
SPOTTY, DEEP CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ARAFURA SEA TO
THE WESTERN GULF OF CARPENTARIA THAT IS BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE AROUND
A REGION OF PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL TURNING IN THE VICINITY OF GOVE,
AUSTRALIA. RADAR IMAGERY FROM GOVE SUGGESTS BROAD LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC
TURNING, AS WELL, BUT DOES NOT DEPICT ANY ONE WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITHIN ITS 512 KM RANGE. OBSERVATIONS SITES ALONG
THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE NORTHERN TERRITORY REPORT SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE RANGING FROM 1004 TO 1005 MB WITH GENERALLY INSIGNIFICANT
PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
IS FAVORABLE WITH ENHANCED POLEWARD VENTING AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ANALYZED OVER WEST-CENTRAL AUSTRALIA, AND BROAD EQUATORWARD
DIFFLUENCE. THE SYSTEM SITS RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS, WHICH IS ALSO PROVIDING LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

Tropical Cyclone 3 day Outlook for Northern Region, including the Gulf of
Carpentaria

Tropical Cyclone 3 day Outlook for Northern Region, including the Gulf of
Carpentaria

Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 2:15 pm CST Friday 26 March 2010

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A developing tropical low [1004 hPa] in the Arafura Sea was located near 9.5S
134.5E at 12:30pm CST. It is approximately 300km NNE of Maningrida and moving
westwards at about 10km/h. The low is expected to move closer to the north coast
of the NT and intensify further over the next few days as the monsoon trough
becomes better organised.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone being in the Northern Region on:

Saturday: Low,
Sunday: Moderate,
Monday: High.

NOTE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day...
Very low: less than 5%, Low: 5% to 20%, Moderate: 20% to 50%, High: Over 50%.

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Ocean area between 125E and 142E,
including the Gulf of Carpentaria.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone.

DARWIN Regional Forecasting Centre.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

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TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 3
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 5:00 am CST Saturday 27 March 2010

A Cyclone WATCH continues for a developing tropical low for coastal areas and
island communities from Cape Don to Nhulunbuy.

At 3:30 am CST a Tropical Low was estimated to be 210 kilometres north of
Maningrida and 385 kilometres northwest of Nhulunbuy and moving southeast at 9
kilometres per hour.

There is the possibility of a Tropical Cyclone developing but GALES are not
expected in coastal areas within the next 24 hours, however gales may develop
later.

Details of Tropical Low at 3:30 am CST:
.Centre located near...... 10.2 degrees South 133.9 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 120 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southeast at 9 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 1003 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 11:00 am CST Saturday 27 March.

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and QLD-1300 659 212

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

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Latest

[KWT]

Not going to have long at all out to sea before it comes inland, so shouldn't see too much in the way of development out of this one.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 4
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 11:00 am CST Saturday 27 March 2010

A Cyclone WATCH continues for a developing tropical low for coastal areas and
island communities from Cape Don to Nhulunbuy.

At 9:30 am CST a Tropical Low was estimated to be 165 kilometres north northeast
of Milingimbi and 235 kilometres northwest of Nhulunbuy and moving east
southeast at 10 kilometres per hour.

There is the possibility of a Tropical Cyclone developing but GALES are not
expected in coastal areas within the next 24 hours, however gales may develop
later.

Details of Tropical Low at 9:30 am CST:
.Centre located near...... 10.7 degrees South 135.3 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 120 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the east southeast at 10 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 1003 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 5:00 pm CST Saturday 27 March.

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

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Latest

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Looking much better

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TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0750 UTC 27/03/2010
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 11U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 11.2S
Longitude: 136.4E
Location Accuracy: within 60 nm [110 km]
Movement Towards: southeast [130 deg]
Speed of Movement: 8 knots [14 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1001 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar:
Storm Depth: Medium
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 27/1800: 11.7S 136.6E: 090 [165]: 030 [055]: 997
+24: 28/0600: 12.1S 136.6E: 120 [220]: 040 [075]: 994
+36: 28/1800: 12.5S 136.4E: 150 [280]: 035 [065]: 997
+48: 29/0600: 12.5S 136.0E: 185 [345]: 025 [045]: 1002
+60: 29/1800: 12.6S 135.7E: 230 [430]: 025 [045]: 1002
+72: 30/0600: 12.7S 135.8E: 280 [520]: 030 [055]: 1000
REMARKS:
The tropical low has significantly improved its structure during the past 6
hours with cold tops expanding near the systyem centre. Spiral bands with 0.45
wrap have developed in the eastern sectors and a well-defined LLCC is evident on
radar west of the Wessel Islands. Dvorak DT=2.5, MET and PAT=2.0. FT=2.0 due to
6-hour change constraints. Rapid intensification forecast for next 12 hours due
to recently improved structure and favourable low-shear environment with good
outflow channels to the south and north.

Consensus of model forecasts continues recent slow S or SSE movement closer to
the coast into a break in the mid-level ridge. After 24 hours, the system is
expected to become near stationary just inland over Arnhemland and weaken
slightly below TC intensity. After 48 hours, a mid-level trough amplifying over
eastern Australia is expected to combine with strengthening low-level NW flow to
steer the system over the Gulf of Carpentaria where it may reintensify.


Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 27/1330 UTC by Darwin TCWC.

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TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 6
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 8:11 pm CST Saturday 27 March 2010

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities from Maningrida
to Cape Shield, including Nhulunbuy, and now extends to Numbulwar, including
Groote Eylandt.

A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal and island communities from Goulburn
Island to Maningrida and now extends from Numbulwar to Port Roper.

The Cyclone WATCH from Cape Don to Goulburn Island has been cancelled.

At 6:30 pm CST a Tropical Low was estimated to be 65 kilometres north of
Nhulunbuy and 140 kilometres east northeast of Elcho Island and moving south
southeast at 13 kilometres per hour.
The low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 12 to 18
hours.

GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour are expected to develop between
MANINGRIDA and NUMBULWAR, including NHULUNBUY and GROOTE EYLANDT, ealry tomorrow
morning.

Tides will be HIGHER THAN NORMAL between ELCHO ISLAND and GROOTE EYLANDT tonight
and during Sunday. Large waves may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal
areas.

HEAVY RAIN may lead to localised flooding and significant stream rises in the
Arnhem District tonight and during Sunday.

Details of Tropical Low at 6:30 pm CST:
.Centre located near...... 11.6 degrees South 136.8 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 110 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south southeast at 13 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 1000 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 11:00 pm CST Saturday 27 March.

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

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27/0830 UTC 11.6S 136.1E T2.0/2.0 91P -- Southwest Pacific

30 knots

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THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.0S
133.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.0S 133.8E, APPROXIMATELY 230 NM
NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES FLARING DEEP CONVECTION WITH WEAK INFLOW LINES
LEADING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. RADAR IMAGERY FROM GOVE
SUGGESTS BROAD LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE REGION, INCLUDING A
SECONDARY DICRETE CIRCULATION TO THE EAST OF THE PRIMARY
CIRCULATION. OBSERVATIONS SITES ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE
NORTHERN TERRITORY REPORT SEA LEVEL PRESSURE RANGING FROM 1004 TO
1005 MB WITH GENERALLY INSIGNIFICANT PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH ENHANCED
POLEWARD VENTING AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ANALYZED OVER WEST-
CENTRAL AUSTRALIA, AND BROAD EQUATORWARD DIFFLUENCE. THE SYSTEM SITS
RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, WHICH IS ALSO
PROVIDING LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.

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WTPS21 PGTW 271700
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.2S 136.2E TO 16.0S 137.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
271530Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.1S
136.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.0S
133.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.1S 136.7E, APPROXIMATELY 345 NM
EAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND RADAR IMAGERY FROM GOVE, AUSTRALIA SHOW DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING AROUND A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE LLCC IS
LOCATED JUST OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN AUSTRALIA IN THE GULF OF
CARPENTARIA, WHICH HAS HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED ON PGTW DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS AND OBSERVATIONS FROM NORTHEAST
ISLAND INDICATING 27 KNOTS WITH 1005 MB. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED BENEATH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WITH GOOD
RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 IS
GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
281700Z.//
NNNN

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TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 9
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 5:00 am CST Sunday 28 March 2010

A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal and island communities from Milingimbi
to Numbulwar, including Nhulunbuy and Groote Eylandt.

A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal and island communities from Maningrida to
Milingimbi and Numbulwar to Port McArthur.

At 3:30 am CST a Tropical Low was estimated to be 75 kilometres south southwest
of Nhulunbuy and 125 kilometres north of Alyangula and moving southwest at 12
kilometres per hour.
The low is currently located near the coast and is expected to develop into a
tropical cyclone in the next 6 to 12 hours.

GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour are expected to develop between and
MILINGIMBI AND NUMBULWAR, including GROOTE EYLANDT, today.

Tides will be HIGHER THAN NORMAL between ELCHO ISLAND and NUMBULWAR, including
GROOTE EYLANDT, today. Large waves may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying
coastal areas.

HEAVY RAIN may lead to localised flooding and significant stream rises in the
Arnhem and Roper-McArthur Districts during Sunday.

Details of Tropical Low at 3:30 am CST:
.Centre located near...... 12.8 degrees South 136.5 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 12 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 999 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 8:00 am CST Sunday 28 March.

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

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Latest

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27/2030 UTC 12.8S 136.7E T2.5/2.5 22P -- Southwest Pacific

35 knots