#20 Postby cycloneye » Thu Apr 22, 2010 10:03 am
WTXS31 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (TWENTYFOUR) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/220821ZAPR10//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (TWENTYFOUR) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 12.8S 115.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.8S 115.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 13.9S 114.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 14.6S 113.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 15.0S 111.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 15.3S 110.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 15.6S 109.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 15.3S 104.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 15.2S 98.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 13.1S 115.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 570 NM NORTH OF
LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS DURING THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED
CENTRAL CONVECTION AND A 220925Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS
IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING AROUND A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW AND APRF DVORAK ESTIMATES
OF 35 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 24S IS LOCATED
BENEATH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD OUTFLOW. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED TO THE
SOUTHWEST IS SUPPORTING A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. TC 24S IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). AS THE STR BUILDS BACK IN WITH THE PASSING
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, TC 24S WILL BEGIN TO TURN WESTWARD AND
EVENTUALLY INCREASE IN SPEED AS THE STR BECOMES STRONGER AFTER TAU
72. INTENSITIES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE, HOWEVER AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES FARTHER SOUTHWESTWARD, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE AND
AFTER TAU 72, TC 24S SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN. AVAILABLE NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SOUTHWESTWARD TO
WESTWARD TRACK, EXCEPT FOR WBAR THAT TRACKS THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD.
THIS TURN SOUTHWARD IS NOT LIKELY BECAUSE THE STR IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN AND CONTINUE TRACKING TC 24S WESTWARD. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
230300Z AND 231500Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVMARFCSTCEN 220821Z APR 10 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTXS21 PGTW 220830).//
NNNN
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