BAY OF BENGAL - CYCLONIC STORM LAILA (01B)

[HURAKAN]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 90.3E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.9N 90.0E, APPROXIMATELY 625 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD REGION OF
CONVERGENCE AND MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS AN OVERALL LACK OF ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION. A 160009Z
WINDSAT SCATTEROMETERY PASS SHOWS BROAD TROUGHING WITH NO INDICATION
OF A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.

[ugaap]

INVEST is 92B

[HURAKAN]

INVEST is 92B

Oops! Fixed

[Nika]

From IMD:


BOB 01/2010/01 Dated: 17.05.2010 Time of issue: 1330 hours IST



Sub: Depression Over southeast Bay of Bengal and neighbourhood



Latest satellite imageries and surface observations indicate that a depression has formed over southeast Bay of Bengal and neighbourhood and lay centred at 1130 hrs IST of today, the 17th May 2010 near latitude 10.50N and 88.50E, about 930 km east-southeast of Chennai, 1000 km southeast of Visakhapatnam and 1400 km south of Kolkata.

The current environmental condition and numerical weather prediction (NWP) models suggest that the system is likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm and move initially in a northwesterly direction towards Andhra Pradesh coast.

Under the influence of this system, coastal areas of Andhra Pradesh, are likely to experience fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls from 19th May 2010. Squally wind with speed reaching 45-55 kmph likely to commence along and off Andhra Pradesh coast from 19th May 2010.

Sea condition will be rough to very rough along and off Andhra Pradesh coast from 19th May 2010. Fishermen are advised not venture into the sea during that period.



The system is under constant watch and concerned state Govts. are being informed accordingly.

Next bulletin will be issued at 2030 hrs IST of 17th May 2010.

[HURAKAN]

Seems to be organizing

[HURAKAN]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.9N 90.0E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 87.7E, APPROXIMATELY 455 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF CHENNAI, INDIA. DEEP CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO CONSTRUCTIVELY
ORGANIZE AROUND A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
WEAK FORMATIVE BANDING IS ESPECIALLY EVIDENT IN A 170315 METOP-A
MICROWAVE IMAGE WRAPPING TOWARDS FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION. A
170315Z ASCAT CONFIRMS A WELL-DEFINED 20 TO 25 KNOT LLCC. THE UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS GENERALLY FAVORABLE AS THE DISTURBANCE SITS
NEAR THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND BROAD MULTI-DIRECTIONAL DIFFLUENCE. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

Latest ... burst of convection

[KWT]

Nice burst of convection as you say Hurakan...ECM does develop this system but doesn't really strengthen it too much but a big rainmaker would still be a big problem for this area of the world, and it could well become stronger as well then predicted.

[ugaap]

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.3N 89.6E TO 14.0N 84.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 171200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.7N 88.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.1N
87.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 88.6E, APPROXIMATELY 495 NM EAST OF
CHENNAI, INDIA. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE AROUND A DEVELOPING
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). AN EARLIER 170315Z ASCAT PASS
CONFIRMS THAT A WELL-DEFINED 20 TO 25 KNOT CIRCULATION HAS FORMED.
A 171108Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES MARKED CONSOLIDATION HAS
OCCURRED WITHIN THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH DEEP CONVECTION RINGING AN
EASILY IDENTIFIABLE LLCC. SEVERAL BANDS HAVE ALSO BEGUN TO WRAP
TOWARDS THE CENTER. THE SYSTEM LIES IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE
MULTIDIRECTIONAL VENTING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS, AND MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
181500Z.//

[salmon123]

HMMM.... NICE TO SE THIS CYCLONE LAILA

[cycloneye]

An eye-feature is showing up.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[P.K.]

Now a Deep Depression.

WTIN20 DEMS 171700

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK


DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED: 17-05-2010

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY
OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED
AT 1500 UTC OF 17 MAY, 2010 BASED ON 1200 UTC OF 17 MAY, 2010 (.)

THE DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL AND ADJOINING AREAS
MOVED NORTHWESTWARDS,INTENSIFIED INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION AND LAY
CENTRED AT 1200 UTC OF TODAY, THE 17TH MAY 2010 NEAR LAT. 11.0 DEG N AND
LONG. 88.0 DEG E, ABOUT 850 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, 900 KM
SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM AND 1300 KM SOUTH OF KOLKATA.

SUSTAINED MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT
30 KNOTS. THE STATE OF THE SEA IS VERY ROUGH TO HIGH AROUND
THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT
1000 HPA.

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES FURTHER ORGANISATION OF CONVECTION
DURING PAST TWELVE HOURS. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T2.0.
ASSOCIATED BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION OBSERVED
OVER AREA BETWEEN LAT. 5.0 DEG N TO 17.0 DEG N AND LONG. 85.5 DEG
AND SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL. THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE (CTT)
DUE TO CONVECTION IS AROUND -80 DEG C IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SYSTEM.

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF HORIZONTAL WIND OVER THE REGION IS LOW
TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS). THE 24 HOURS WIND SHEAR TENDENCY IS
NEGATIVE( 5-10 KNOTS). THE SYSTEM LIES TO THE SOUTH OF TROPOSPHERIC
RIDGE, WHICH ROUGHLY RUNS ALONG 15 DEG N. SEA SURFACE TEMPRATURE IS
ALSO FAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION AS IT IS 29 DEG-30 DEG C OVER THE
REGION. THE RELATIVE VORTICITY AT 850 HPA LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ARE ALSO FAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION, AS THEY HAVE
INCREASED DURING PAST 12 HRS.

CONSIDERING ALL THE ABOVE AND NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION (NWP)
MODELS GUIDANCE, THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY GRADUALLY INTO A
CYCLONIC STORM AND MOVE INITIALLY IN A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION
TOWARDS ANDHRA PRADESH COAST DURING NEXT 2-3 DAYS.
BASED ON LATEST ANALYSIS WITH NWP MODELS AND OTHER CONVENTIONAL
TECHNIQUES, ESTIMATED TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM ARE GIVEN
IN THE TABLE BELOW:
-------------------------------------------------------------------
DATE/TIME(UTC) POSITION (LAT. DEG N/ SUSTAINED MAXIMUM SURFACE
LONG. DEG E) WIND SPEED (KMPH)
-------------------------------------------------------------------
17-05-2010/1200 11.0/88.0 55-65 GUSTING TO 75
17-05-2010/1800 11.5/87.5 55-65 GUSTING TO 75
18-05-2010/0000 12.0/87.0 65-75 GUSTING TO 85
18-05-2010/0600 12.5/86.5 65-75 GUSTING TO 85
18-05-2010/1200 13.0/86.0 75-85 GUSTING TO 95
19-05-2010/0000 14.0/85.0 75-85 GUSTING TO 95
19-05-2010/1200 15.0/84.0 85-95 GUSTING TO 105
20-05-2010/0000 16.0/83.0 95-105 GUSTING TO 115
20-05-2010/1200 17.0/82.0 95-105 GUSTING TO 115
-------------------------------------------------------------------
MSG OVER=

[HURAKAN]

17/1430 UTC 11.5N 87.0E T2.0/2.0 92B -- Bay of Bengal


30 knots

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

Model consensus

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[KWT]

Its really ramping up already isn't it, you can see it winding up with some decent banding and curvature to the system already.

ECM takes this system northwards and strengthens it but not by a massive amount...I think given the way its winding up, it may well become stronger then the model expects.

[HURAKAN]

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