ATL : INVEST 90L

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HURAKAN
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ATL : INVEST 90L

#1 Postby HURAKAN » Fri May 21, 2010 7:35 am

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al902010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201005211219
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 90, 2010, DB, O, 2010052112, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL902010
AL, 90, 2010052012, , BEST, 0, 270N, 718W, 15, 1015, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010052018, , BEST, 0, 272N, 717W, 15, 1015, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010052100, , BEST, 0, 274N, 717W, 15, 1015, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010052106, , BEST, 0, 276N, 720W, 20, 1014, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010052112, , BEST, 0, 275N, 723W, 25, 1013, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 80, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

Image
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Re: ATL : INVEST 90L

#2 Postby bvigal » Fri May 21, 2010 7:47 am

ull is helping this low
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Re: ATL : INVEST 90L

#3 Postby tolakram » Fri May 21, 2010 7:53 am

Here's a visible link positioned to show both the invest and the swirl just east of the Yucatan.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=18

You can move the floater by changing lat=25 and lon=-78 and change the zoom by changing zoom=2 to zoom=1
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#4 Postby dolebot_Broward_NW » Fri May 21, 2010 8:23 am

Wowza. This energy passed west -> east over sofla on Tuesday and Wednesday. I kept thinking to myself as I watched about how much turning and vortices were in the system. At one point I checked the date to make sure this wasn't July.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 90L

#5 Postby pepeavilenho » Fri May 21, 2010 8:25 am

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al902010.invest


Hurakan, Can I have the link from ATCF?

It was obvious that an Invest would be opened...
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Re: ATL : INVEST 90L

#6 Postby AdamFirst » Fri May 21, 2010 8:43 am

Welcome back, everyone. The tropic watching season is finally here. :cheesy:
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Re: ATL : INVEST 90L

#7 Postby Parungus » Fri May 21, 2010 8:44 am

pepeavilenho wrote:
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al902010.invest


Hurakan, Can I have the link from ATCF?

It was obvious that an Invest would be opened...


Here You have, Pepe.

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest
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#8 Postby KWT » Fri May 21, 2010 8:47 am

Actually think this shouldn't even be an invest just yet, but its probably more of a tester invest then one on its own merit...

That being said I do expect possible subtropical development down the line with 90L.
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Re:

#9 Postby srainhoutx » Fri May 21, 2010 8:56 am

KWT wrote:Actually think this shouldn't even be an invest just yet, but its probably more of a tester invest then one on its own merit...

That being said I do expect possible subtropical development down the line with 90L.



Actually when the HPC Prelim Update came out early this morning, one could see that the signals were fairly clear that this invest was going to issued.
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#10 Postby KWT » Fri May 21, 2010 8:59 am

Without a doubt it was obvious, but I think its too early still to be honest, no chance this develops for at least another 48hrs IMO, that being said its quite obvious this has a shot down the line!
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Re: ATL : INVEST 90L

#11 Postby HURAKAN » Fri May 21, 2010 9:11 am

72 hours:

Image

The NHC isn't expecting a lot of movement between now and 3 days.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 90L

#12 Postby pepeavilenho » Fri May 21, 2010 9:11 am

Parungus wrote:
pepeavilenho wrote:
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al902010.invest


Hurakan, Can I have the link from ATCF?

It was obvious that an Invest would be opened...


Here You have, Pepe.

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest


Thanks parungus....I didn't find it...

From J.M. blog

Image
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Re:

#13 Postby tolakram » Fri May 21, 2010 9:17 am

KWT wrote:Without a doubt it was obvious, but I think its too early still to be honest, no chance this develops for at least another 48hrs IMO, that being said its quite obvious this has a shot down the line!


Nah, I disagree. The purpose of an invest is to start the process of running models and getting more data. With global model agreement as it is I think the timing is more of ... why wait? :)
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#14 Postby KWT » Fri May 21, 2010 9:21 am

Yeah but in this sort of evolution right now the tropical models which run once an unvest has been established is useless right now given its extra-tropical state right now, also I'm sure they could have kept inhouse watching for a while yet, given it probably won't develop for a few days yet.

Huge shear on it at the moment it seems...
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Re: ATL : INVEST 90L

#15 Postby HURAKAN » Fri May 21, 2010 9:27 am

Image

Long way to go but seems to be on track
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#16 Postby KWT » Fri May 21, 2010 9:34 am

Looks an utter mess there Hurakan, it does indeed look a very long way away from developing into a system, still it does have time on its side and it will slowly move into more favourable conditions.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 90L

#17 Postby MGC » Fri May 21, 2010 10:58 am

Looks like a good bit of shear and dry air to the west of 90L.....don't think it has much of a chance to be or become tropical. Small chance of a STS forming though....MGC
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Re: ATL : INVEST 90L

#18 Postby Pedro Fernández » Fri May 21, 2010 12:20 pm

Ok, here we go... The first INVEST of the N-Atlantic season 8-)

SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR
27N72W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 30N70W. ANOTHER
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 22N74W.
MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN DONE FOR THIS FEATURE...AND THE EARLIEST
SHORT-TERM FORECAST INDICATES THAT IT WILL STAY IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT MORE OR LESS ITS SAME PRESSURE
VALUE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 24N TO 27N
BETWEEN 69W AND 71W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
OTHER POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 24N BETWEEN 70W AND
80W...FROM 20N BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W...AND TO THE NORTH
OF 27N BETWEEN 53W AND 60W.

No special comment about this low... ulterior subtropical development maybe?
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Re: ATL : INVEST 90L

#19 Postby cycloneye » Fri May 21, 2010 12:20 pm

Here is a video from the Accuweather free site by JB about his take on 90L.

http://www.accuweather.com/video.asp
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#20 Postby HURAKAN » Fri May 21, 2010 12:40 pm

Image

90L not cheering for shear
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