WPAC : INVEST 93W

[cycloneye]

Will this disturbance on the China Sea be the second storm with a name of the 2010 WPAC season? Certainly,it has been very quiet in that basin since the first storm in late March.





Panoramic view to show where the disturbance is related to landmasses.

[dexterlabio]

T2K Tropical Cyclone Watch [As of 8:00 AM May 26, 2010]:
Developing LPA (93W/1010 MB) forming off the South China Sea, West of Luzon
or near 17.2N 114.2E...about 665 km WNW of Dagupan City...Almost stationary.
May pose a threat to Western & Northern Luzon in the coming days.

JTWC, JMA, PAGASA, and other forecast models don't recognize this system yet. I have noticed this organizing rain clouds since yesterday following the stationary front over Northern Luzon. PAGASA is saying that the rainy season might be delayed but if this system further develops and affect the country, this might trigger the onset of the rainy season via enhanced southwest monsoon.

[dexterlabio]

ABPW10 PGTW 260600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/260600Z-270600ZMAY2010//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 17.3N 113.2E,
APPROXIMATELY 190 NM SOUTH OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD, PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC)EAST OF HAINAN, CHINA, IN THE VICINITY OF A SHEAR LINE. AN AREA
OF DISORGANIZED CONVECTION JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC IS BEING
ENHANCED BY SPEED CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST
SURGE IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. THIS IS EVIDENT ON RECENT ASCAT
SCATTEROMETRY DATA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST
TO THE NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE NORTHERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS AND MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE AT 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.3N
113.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 115.4E, APPROXIMATELY 170 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 261819Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT CURVED CONVECTION AND
IMPROVED INFLOW INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
ADDITIONALLY, NEARBY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE 15 KNOT WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO IMPROVED
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ANALYZED
AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED
TO FAIR.

[wyq614]

TCFA issued, torrencial rain has already appeared in provinces of Fujian and Taiwan.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert

WTPN21 PGTW 270200
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
085 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20.0N 115.0E TO 22.1N 118.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 262330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 20.4N 115.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.7N
115.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 115.3E, APPROXIMATELY 130 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 262140Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW IMPROVED CONVECTIVE
BANDING WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE IMAGERY NOTED ABOVE, HOWEVER THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS POSITION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM LIES JUST
SOUTH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE, NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, THIS VWS
IS FORECAST TO DECREASE BECAUSE THE STR WILL BUILD OVER THE SYSTEM
AS AN UPPER LEVEL, MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE EAST OF THE
PHILIPPINES CONTINUES EASTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO INCREASED CONVECTIVE BANDING AND HIGH SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ANALYZED AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.

[dexterlabio]

I doubt that the center is located somewhere at 20 degrees north. JTWC also stated the uncertainty in the initial position.

[cycloneye]

Center is exposed to the north of convection.

[Chacor]

For what it's worth, it's not even noted as a low pressure area by the JMA.

[StormingB81]

Interesting what will happend in the comming days. The weather for RIGHT now says winds here in Okinawa about 30-35 knots. We know that will change 20 times over..especially if anything happends either way with this storm.

[StormingB81]

Does anyone think this can form into anything?

[wyq614]

Does anyone think this can form into anything?

IMO this will soon make landfall in Taiwan and if it won't dissipate and manages to move across the island, it may encounter more favorable condition for development to the east of Taiwan.

[StormingB81]

JTWC cancelled the TCFA and downgraded it to poor. See what happends in the comming days.

[cycloneye]

WTPN21 PGTW 280200
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/270151Z MAY 10//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 270200)//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A. THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 115.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 117.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 200 NM EAST OF HONG KONG. RECENT ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN
CENTRAL CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). CURRENTLY THE SYSTEM IS UNDER HIGH NORTHERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS), ANALYZED AT APPROXIMATELY 20 TO 30 KNOTS, AND IS
ALSO BEING AFFECTED BY COOL, DRY AIR INFLOW FROM SOUTHERN CHINA. THE
SYSTEM HAS STARTED TO INCREASE IN TRANSLATION SPEED, DUE TO
INFLUENCE FROM THE WESTERLIES, AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH TAIWAN
BEFORE ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT CAN OCCUR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 17 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, THE INFLOW OF COOLER AIR, AND LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER
THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR

[wyq614]

System has made landfall in southwest Taiwan, through whose radars torrential rains can be seen.

[wyq614]

Gone from NRL....

[RL3AO]

Amazing that its almost June and the WPac has had one storm.