ARABIAN SEA - DEEP DEPRESSION (03A)

[wyq614]

06z position: 14.5N 65.5E, EC develops it and predicts that it will make landfall around India-Pakistan border

[salmon123]

Could Be A Strong System...

[Iceperple]

EC has changed a lot from 5-27

[Crostorm]

[omani1]

Hi
This is the first post for me?
What is the projected path of A94?

[HURAKAN]

Computer models

[HURAKAN]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 14.5N 65.5E,
APPROXIMATELY 495 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTION ALONG THE DEVELOPING MONSOON TROUGH IN
THE ARABIAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS SOUTH
OF A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER ANCHORED OVER OMAN IN AN AREA OF MODERATE
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS,
SUPPORTED BY A 300528Z ASCAT SCATTEROMETRY PASS, ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.

[HURAKAN]

30/0830 UTC 14.7N 65.2E T1.0/1.0 94A -- Arabian Sea

latest

[cycloneye]

301800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/301800Z-311800ZMAY2010//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.5N
65.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 64.2E, APPROXIMATELY 570 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW CONTINUED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING IN
THE VICINITY OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN ANTI-
CYCLONE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN ARABIAN SEA IS PROVIDING FAVORABLE
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND CREATING A MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVI-
RONMENT FOR THE LLCC. SURFACE CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE WITH SEA SUR-
FACE TEMPERATURES AROUND 31 CELSIUS BASED ON RECENT BUOY OBSERVA-
TIONS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
BASED ON BUILDING DEEP CONVECTION AND FAVORABLE SURFACE CONDITIONS,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.

[HURAKAN]

Latest ... looking good

[cycloneye]

Does anyone know what are the averages of named cyclones in the Arabian Sea? I ask because it has been active so far this year.

[HURAKAN]

30/2130 UTC 14.9N 64.4E T1.5/1.5 94A -- Arabian Sea

25 knots

[HURAKAN]

DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED: 30-05-2010

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL

AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.)

A LOW PRESSURE AREA WOULD FORM OVER SOUTHEAST AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA DURING NEXT 48 HOURS.

CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF SOUTH & ADJOINING CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA, EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL AND ANDMAN SEA.

THE RIDGE LINE AT 200 hPa RUNS ALONG LAT 17°N OVER INDIAN REGION.

[ugaap]

From IMD

Synoptic features (based on 1730 hrs IST) 30th May 2010 @ 1200 UTC

· A low pressure has formed over east central and adjoining west central and south Arabian Sea, it is likely to concentrate into a depression during next 1-2 days.

[HurricaneBill]

Hi
This is the first post for me?
What is the projected path of A94?

Welcome to Storm2k!

[bob rulz]

Does anyone know what are the averages of named cyclones in the Arabian Sea? I ask because it has been active so far this year.

According to Wikipedia, the entire North Indian Ocean basin averages only 4 to 6 storms per year, and the Bay of Bengal sees 5-6 times more activity than the Arabian Sea, so it's safe to assume that the average number of storms to form in the Arabian Sea is only about 1 per year. Looking back through about 10 years of North Indian seasons the average seems to be slightly more than 1 (maybe about 1.2).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_c ... dian_Ocean

[Chacor]

Hard to call, as the IMD's best track is very unreliable and the naming of storms in this basin is a relatively new phenomenon.

Also, as we always say with other basins, even inactive years can produce monsters. Remember Gonu?

[cycloneye]

Does anyone know what are the averages of named cyclones in the Arabian Sea? I ask because it has been active so far this year.

According to Wikipedia, the entire North Indian Ocean basin averages only 4 to 6 storms per year, and the Bay of Bengal sees 5-6 times more activity than the Arabian Sea, so it's safe to assume that the average number of storms to form in the Arabian Sea is only about 1 per year. Looking back through about 10 years of North Indian seasons the average seems to be slightly more than 1 (maybe about 1.2).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_c ... dian_Ocean

Thank you for the information.

[HURAKAN]

Continues to get better organized

[Chacor]

Gonu was declared INVEST 92A on May 31, 2007. So around the same time as this one, hopefully nowhere close as big.