EPAC: INVEST 91E Discussion

[RL3AO]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep912010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201006010003
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

EP, 91, 2010060100, , BEST, 0, 96N, 1170W, 20, 1010, DB,



Hello? New invest and no one posts it?

Title edited by CM.

[Hurricanehink]

I think it's a bit too far west for significant development, for this time of year.

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KMIA 010005
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0005 UTC TUE JUN 1 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP912010) 20100601 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100601 0000 100601 1200 100602 0000 100602 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.6N 117.0W 10.3N 118.1W 11.2N 119.4W 12.1N 120.5W
BAMD 9.6N 117.0W 10.1N 118.9W 10.8N 120.7W 11.3N 122.3W
BAMM 9.6N 117.0W 10.0N 118.6W 10.4N 120.5W 10.8N 122.2W
LBAR 9.6N 117.0W 10.0N 118.2W 10.7N 119.7W 11.6N 121.1W
SHIP 20KTS 25KTS 30KTS 32KTS
DSHP 20KTS 25KTS 30KTS 32KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100603 0000 100604 0000 100605 0000 100606 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.9N 121.5W 14.2N 123.5W 15.0N 125.6W 14.2N 127.5W
BAMD 11.9N 123.5W 12.9N 125.1W 13.7N 126.3W 13.6N 127.6W
BAMM 11.3N 123.6W 12.0N 125.8W 12.5N 128.6W 13.2N 130.9W
LBAR 12.7N 122.6W 15.4N 124.7W 17.9N 127.3W 18.7N 129.7W
SHIP 38KTS 39KTS 31KTS 25KTS
DSHP 38KTS 39KTS 31KTS 25KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.6N LONCUR = 117.0W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 9.4N LONM12 = 116.2W DIRM12 = 284DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 9.2N LONM24 = 115.4W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Hurricanehink]

It's looking much nicer now.

[CrazyC83]

Fast start because the EPAC is still holding onto the El Nino leftovers?

[Chacor]

ABPZ20 KNHC 010506
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT MON MAY 31 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[KWT]

Yeah quite possibly and the EPAC is actually above average still for a decent chunk of the basin with the models suggesting lower than normal pressures in the basin, so conditions aren't actually that bad there despite a developing La Nina.

Anyway 91E doesn't look at all bad right now, I wouldn't be all that shocked if we see weak development with this system but we shall see.

[cycloneye]

[HURAKAN]

I don't think this system is going anywhere, especially if it moves northwest like the computer models are saying

[Chacor]

ABPZ20 KNHC 011141
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE JUN 1 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED THIS
MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM REMAINS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/FRANKLIN

[KWT]

I don't think this system is going anywhere, especially if it moves northwest like the computer models are saying

Yeah this system looks like its going to remain weak and probably wont become a TC from the looks of things.

[cycloneye]

Did not lasted long.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_DEACTIVATE_ep912010.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201006020031
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

[KWT]

Well there you go, that was the end of 91E!

Convection still present with the wave but its not really going anywhere with it from the looks of things.

[Grifforzer]

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAVE BECOME DISORGANIZED...AND TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT.

---
At first I thought they made a mistake, leaving the 1 out of the sentence.

[HURAKAN]

I particularly don't like the exact percent. What is 0%? Just say no chance.

[lester]

Another one bites the dust..