ATL : INVEST 91L Discussion

[cycloneye]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al912010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201006011653
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 91, 2010, DB, O, 2010060112, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL912010
AL, 91, 2010053118, , BEST, 0, 185N, 865W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, ,
AL, 91, 2010053118, , BEST, 0, 185N, 865W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2010060100, , BEST, 0, 187N, 863W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2010060106, , BEST, 0, 189N, 862W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2010060112, , BEST, 0, 190N, 860W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

[dixiebreeze]

Will the NHC call it at 2 p.m. Luis?

[cycloneye]

Will the NHC call it at 2 p.m. Luis?

NHC already at their 8 AM TWO had a 10% chance for development.

[KWT]

I don't blame them for putting this at the invest level given it has kept a circular ball of convection for the last 12hrs now roughly, and its another good run out for the hurricane models.

Odds on development though still rather low unless it stays exactly where it is and the shear doesn't dip any further south then it is now.

[SouthFloridawx]

http://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/goescolor/goeseast/hurricane2/movie/latest_sml.mov

[cycloneye]

NHC mantains the 10% chance for development.

ABNT20 KNHC 011733
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE JUN 1 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA EAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE REMNANTS
OF PACIFIC TROPICAL STORM AGATHA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...PARTICULARLY
TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...ARE NOT
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/FRANKLIN

[SouthFloridawx]

[tailgater]

Still looks like it's just a mid level disturbance to my amateur eyes.

[Evil Jeremy]

This is a surprise IMO. Did this really need to be invested? Maybe the NHC is still a little tipsy from a possible "Season Start" party last night?

[NONAME]

It looks like the convection is going to die here soon as it looks to have shot out some outflow boundaries.

[KWT]

Shear starting to increase closer to it now which probably explains why the convection is starting to decrease and outflow boundaries are being spat out, plus we are now moving towards the time of day where that tends to happen anyway.

[brunota2003]

extremely large pictures + slow internet = I dont get text messages from cell phones on msn, and forever to load.

[JonathanBelles]

Any idea what this is? At first it looks like an outflow boundary, but then it looks like 91L spit out a small circulation.

[cycloneye]

First model plots dont look promising as of now. Oh boy,it slams into PR.

892
WHXX01 KWBC 011827
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1827 UTC TUE JUN 1 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912010) 20100601 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100601 1800 100602 0600 100602 1800 100603 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.1N 85.9W 19.7N 86.6W 20.9N 87.2W 22.2N 87.6W
BAMD 19.1N 85.9W 20.5N 84.3W 22.0N 81.6W 23.2N 78.0W
BAMM 19.1N 85.9W 20.0N 85.3W 21.2N 84.3W 22.5N 82.7W
LBAR 19.1N 85.9W 19.9N 85.4W 21.3N 85.2W 23.2N 84.7W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 29KTS 27KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 29KTS 27KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100603 1800 100604 1800 100605 1800 100606 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 24.2N 87.2W 27.9N 84.2W 29.8N 77.2W 30.0N 70.1W
BAMD 23.5N 74.3W 22.5N 68.5W 20.1N 67.2W 17.6N 67.4W
BAMM 23.8N 80.9W 25.2N 75.9W 23.5N 71.8W 20.5N 70.1W
LBAR 25.0N 83.6W 27.7N 78.6W 28.4N 72.8W 26.6N 67.9W
SHIP 22KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 24KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.1N LONCUR = 85.9W DIRCUR = 45DEG SPDCUR = 2KT
LATM12 = 18.9N LONM12 = 86.1W DIRM12 = 43DEG SPDM12 = 2KT
LATM24 = 18.5N LONM24 = 86.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[KWT]

They pretty much sum up whats going to happen, once it gets north of 20N the shear only increases to the point where there will be nothing left of the system other then deep moisture streaming towards Florida.

[NDG]

Yeap, I see that vorticity also which came off the convection.
91L might be feeling the effects of mid level westerly shear.

[KWT]

Without a doubt its suffering from shear, that shear is only going to increase as the system heads slowly to the north and closer to the jet streak that is currently in the S.Gulf.

Cool image though it has to be said!

[Aric Dunn]

Yeah I would not put to much faith in this system, it is very small and any shear is going to cause disruption. there is clear cyclonic curvature to the wind field but it looked better yesterday at the surface than it does today. The area of deep convection is persistent though and it seems to be pretty much stationary at the moment. So will see but the 10% from the NHC is about right I would say.

[Aric Dunn]

The best bet will be the SW carribean over the next few days..

[Aric Dunn]

:uarrow: Yeap, I see that vorticity also which came off the convection.
91L might be feeling the effects of mid level westerly shear.

yeah it seems to have produced a small vortex. but nothing to amazing ..